Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Mike Poole]

Well what a difference a day makes, today I think we may very well be on the verge of a pattern change.  

ECM 0z shows a high pressure scenario at T240:

GEFS 6z has 1030 mbar on the mean into Ireland at T300:

That is normally a significant sign.  The vortex is dying, and while yesterday there looked to be some disturbance in the stratosphere on some runs, today the GFS has gone for it big time.  I posted the 0z in the strat thread, here's the 6z at T318 and T384:

I wonder if we are seeing the pattern change in the trop and strat almost simultaneously?  

The strat winds charts, first now T6 and then T384:

At the moment the GEFS were as yesterday, no real signal:

Gradual decline in zonal winds on that suite.  But I think we saw earlier in the winter that the FV3 GFS has a better take on things stratospheric than the GEFS with the old model (I admit I was sceptical of this at the time).

Couple of weeks and I think the weather will change from what we've suffered for what seems like ages, to what is open to question, high pressure and dry here, or maybe still chance for something colder in early spring.  We will see.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Westonchris]

Would have thought sub -10 850's over a warm North Sea would generate some very heavy showers to come in from the East . Even this late would probably bring the Coldest night of the Winter many locations. 

[Zak M]

If you crave for mild and settled weather, then I have something for you 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zak M

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS says spring is on the way

.. Just not this month.

[Zak M]

Some snow possible up north on days 3 and 4.

Not showing anything for the south unfortunately.

[Zak M]

The GEM is also hinting some spring like weather.

   

Lets hope the GFS 12z will show something similar to this!

 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Some snow possible up north on days 3 and 4.

Not showing anything for the south unfortunately.

What a surprise 

[Mike Poole]

Well we seem to have transitioned from an extended period of westerly Atlantic driven horribleness, to something different from the models, here's the ICON T180:

Nothing sufficiently cold to excite those of that persuasion at this point, but there is cold lurking in the wings, so to speak.....

[Zak M]

@Mike Poole The GFS 12z shows literally the opposite of the ICON 12z with the cold air plunging into Scandinavia and/or northern Europe.

But... which one will prevail?

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zak M

[Griff]

38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@Mike Poole The GFS 12z shows literally the opposite of the ICON 12z with the cold air plunging into Scandinavia and/or northern Europe.

But... which one will prevail?

It's quite the back and forth at the moment, indicative of a change but no agreement within consecutive runs let alone between models. Anyone brave enough to hazard an educated guess? 

I'm going to sit on the fence and say more of the same until I can see otherwise out of the window...

[Zak M]

The latest GFS run is a complete mess.

It symbolises more settled weather on days 9 and 10:

 

   

 

And then day 11 is the start where colder air takes control:

 

   

 

And then, how about this mess? 

Probably not a mess for the UK but certainly a mess further north:

 

   

[feb1991blizzard]

A few Easterlies in the GEFS, there is a more potent and longer lasting one than this but this is the earliest timeframe one.

In fact for southern England its a mean Easterly at 384, just not with very potent uppers.

Edited March 8, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In fact for southern England its a mean Easterly at 384, just not with very potent uppers.

A wishy washy easterly, then at the surface, like February 2005?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

A wishy washy easterly, then at the surface, like February 2005?

05 was crap in Midlands but apparentely dumped a foot in the higher parts of Oldham

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

05 was crap in Midlands but apparentely dumped a foot in the higher parts of Oldham

It was pretty crap in the south, too, with snow either not settling, or disappearing within a few hours!  High ground and areas towards the east coast did ok, I believe.

[snowray]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

It was pretty crap in the south, too, with snow either not settling, or disappearing within a few hours!  High ground and areas towards the east coast did ok, I believe.

Yes higher areas had a good covering even in the south, this easterly not looking so good. Probably be back though on the good old pub run with something more potent at T300 odd, just to wind us all up a bit more.

[Chesil View]

Way too early to start talking down an easterly that may not even appear given the range at which it is predicted. 

If it comes off and it's a big if then the orientation will be all important ideally a southwest/northeast orientation to drag some of the really old air out if northwest Russia as per the 06z and some of the ensemble members

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

It was pretty crap in the south, too, with snow either not settling, or disappearing within a few hours!  High ground and areas towards the east coast did ok, I believe.

Unusual that with a potent Easterly - which looking at the retro charts was fairly potent uppers wise, unusual in that it seemed to not affect the SE but did affect areas in the North even away from the usual suspects like Hull, Newcastle and affected parts well inland.

[damianslaw]

Further unsettled weather for the foreseeable with the atlantic ruling roost- this headline could fit the period since September at least.

Temp contrasts between north and south, mild for all early on in the week, notably SE parts, becoming cooler as the week ends thanks to more of a polar maritime flow.

Longer term - tentative signs might finally see a break in the atlantic as sub-tropical heights ridge north through east atlantic, and possibly then surging NE very quickly which could change the airstream from an atlantic one to a continental one - not been able to say this for a very long time. This is the time of year when the atlantic can quickly come unstuck - though with a very strong PV it looks like it will be hard to tame anytime soon.

[Mike Poole]

As the pub run rolls, some comments:

This coronavirus:

How does the weather affect it?  Is this known?  All well and good to be trying to push it into summer, but there are cases in Australia, it isn't cold there, as per GFS 18z T12:

Closer to home, 

T192 shows high pressure building, not the first run to have shown this:

A change, but to what?  I think we need to keep an eye on the strat in the later parts of the run!

Edit, only out to T216, but it is a finger up the bottom for the strat vortex!

Edited March 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[snowray]

As usual the easterly is shifted further and further south, none the less a pleasant period of weather to look forward to, if the 18z was to verify that is of course, quite springlike in fact.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, snowray said:

As usual the easterly is shifted further and further south, none the less a pleasant period of weather to look forward to, if the 18z was to verify that is of course, quite springlike in fact.

Typical, we go from autumn to spring!  Hopefully, the colder option will return on future runs.  I would be fairly happy with a spring similar to 2008.

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Typical, we go from autumn to spring!  Hopefully, the colder option will return on future runs.  I would be fairly happy with a spring similar to 2008.

Control still has a cold easterly with what looks like some snow flurries.

 

[snowray]

Looking markedly chilly for late March on the control run, and its only at T360!

 

 

[MP-R]

31 minutes ago, Don said:

Typical, we go from autumn to spring!  Hopefully, the colder option will return on future runs.  I would be fairly happy with a spring similar to 2008.

Me too! Plenty of convective days, some nice warm days in April between the chillier spells, and a decent warm/hot spell in May. June was very pleasant also. July and August however....