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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Such a shame it's a cold outlier ( the ECM op) we could have bagged ourselves our only real snow event for many in the Eastern half of the country this cold season. Or could it be a trend setter given all the other promising data weve seen?

Screenshot_20200307-200543_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s a bit of a tease to see such cold air to the north but the models don’t really want to dig that into the UK .

The margins are quite small though so as SM just posted it could get interesting . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

ECMWF is showing signs of something to come on day 7:

cold.thumb.png.7063c7d90bef01399ee89d49a9bed8d6.png

ecm500_192.thumb.png.e718d50b4c350cb52cbf299a92e6da0a.png

I'm hoping we get at least one more snow event, hopefully a decent snow event, as that will fill the mouths of the hungry!

Edited by Zak M
Correciones!
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

I'm hoping we get at least one more snow event, hopefully a decent snow event, as that will fill the mouths of the hungry!

Have we had a snow event yet?!  I guess you're referring to Thursday 27th February?  I agree, it would be great to have a decent snow event, though!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

As I'm someone who craves for snow, and some warmer weather, seeing charts like these enlighten my mood.

It will certainly be a taste of what the true spring feels like. 17c still possible up north, perhaps even higher!

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

As I'm someone who craves for snow, and some warmer weather, seeing charts like these enlighten my mood.

It will certainly be a taste of what the true spring feels like. 17c still possible up north, perhaps even higher!

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

Spring like weather quickly followed by 'proper' winter arriving?!  Fine by me!  I'm pretty sure even March 2013 had a warm snap early in the month when temperatures reached 17C?  Also, March 2018 became very mild following the BFTE early in the month prior to it's return for the weekend of the 17th!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
43 minutes ago, Don said:

Have we had a snow event yet?!  I guess you're referring to Thursday 27th February?  I agree, it would be great to have a decent snow event, though!

Especially the places where they haven't had snow settle yet?

Those places need some snow fast!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Especially the places where they haven't had snow settle yet?

Those places need some snow fast!

I certainly haven't seen snow settle IMBY this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Beautiful from Icon 0z first of the day, in the mid range only 7.5days away! Lets hope for more from the big guns in the next few hours. 

20200308_034410.jpg

20200308_034425.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Beautiful from Icon 0z first of the day, in the mid range only 7.5days away! Lets hope for more from the big guns in the next few hours. 

20200308_034410.jpg

20200308_034425.jpg

Well the overnight Ecm run certainly doesn’t seem to be following in the footsteps of the Icon 0z as it delivers little in the way of anything other than a continuation of the changeable dross we’ve been experiencing to date. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Morning...Tuesday's still looking okay:   h850t850eu.png

Day 5 is looking interesting:                    h850t850eu.png

Day 10 is looking more than interesting: h850t850eu.png

Palpitations start by T+283:                    h850t850eu.png

What is the point of cold weather, when there ain't no snow-chances? Snow is what it's all about!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Certainly a pattern change of some kind now on the horizon by next weekend with a cold high setting shop near the UK.

I am not sure I can agree with that from my reading of the charts? Perhaps you could illustrate your view please?

Thanks

Having a closer look and the probability of a surface ridge is there I will admit. The EC-GFS 500 mb charts do suggest this probability although the NOAA set don't. So as ever time will tell.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Morning...Tuesday's still looking okay:   h850t850eu.png

00z EC showing 16C in Norfolk on Tuesday afternoon, taste of spring for eastern England

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-3852400.thumb.png.13274cdefa364ebeadd4704568e96bc2.png

Quite a bit of uncertainty developing with the upper pattern next weekend though between the 00z EC and GFS ops, comparison below shows EC digging a trough that eventually cuts off over western Europe, whilst GFS prefers to do it further east over eastern Europe while brings in a ridge over western Europe.

ecgfs_00z.thumb.gif.d8f5881572536744de4f7e1b6b4dde35.gif

Both eventually leading to high pressure building across the UK towards day 10 though, could be cold under high, if cold air is dragged in from the north prior to the high building as models suggest early next week, especially if there's cloud cover moving in after frosty nights.

Does look like, finally, the ever present strong PV these past few months is relaxing its grip ...

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Next Sunday's GFS 06Z chart literally (this is for JH!) screams POTENTIAL!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Come on now, who else remembers early April 1968!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Would anyone like some snow to properly finish the winter off?? 

 

h500slp (3).png

h500slp (4).png

h500slp (5).png

h500slp (6).png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.3630087beda789cd8db3125abe4e6a07.png

1557547342_prectypeuktopo(1).thumb.png.70f9bd9a98c948e557ba8ce3e3a05a7b.png

150158864_prectypeuktopo(2).thumb.png.ef09ab3434b5d9a146e32e7588852792.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

There’s a ball of cold to our East with our name on it.... 

9FEED3AF-7928-4EBF-A324-A8B17CBC7AED.png

8189EEDA-407E-486A-BE8D-74A51F59AB04.png

A period of heavy looking snow moving in from the east coast followed by snow showers.

gfs-2-318.png

gfs-2-324.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Just a wee westward nudge, and that kink will give us what we want?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

If only it were at Day 2!

I would take this dollop, any day!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

What happens at the end of March is something we should be interested in.

The GFS 06z is showing some settled and perhaps milder weather to take charge over the British Isles on days 11 ad 12:

h500slp.thumb.png.b5414ca4bf00d916303880be6979721f.png 835247015_h500slp(1).thumb.png.b550ebdd57e46f278e6496bb7b8c22e6.png 484840239_h500slp(2).thumb.png.abc4dc27e0336d2768e5ce53afdda68d.png 322236896_h500slp(3).thumb.png.c406d48e283f6baf3ef868ad0f9e9856.png

And then, look at this!! 

956543656_h500slp(4).thumb.png.24ecfd87e9298bd37475bd768fc1da2e.png 162123742_h500slp(5).thumb.png.b4449d996c2aaaa5296848c75166481c.png 581108926_h500slp(6).thumb.png.0979692a1bcc3a6bd877b376f5b8a410.png 705774448_h500slp(7).thumb.png.d66a67f9d4a2d3dc3d6a7cfb3c625c35.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Interesting run from the gfs 06z but as ever the really interesting charts are beyond the reliable timeframe However both gfs and ecm seem to picking up on some kind of pattern change. Whether it will be favourable for a wintry sting in the tail is still open to question.

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