Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Zak M]

Any Spring lovers fancy this?

 

 

And who fancies a south and west split?? 

 

[jethro]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Any Spring lovers fancy this?

 

 

And who fancies a south and west split?? 

 

Oooo, yes please. Longing for spring here.

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Any Spring lovers fancy this?

 

 

 

And who fancies a south and west split?? 

 

Those bottom 3 charts are cold. Thats a nagging NE wind at this time of year.

Edited March 6, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Griff]

FI flip flopping between settled and sunny, or alternatively, Winter's last hurrah! 

I'll take either to be honest...  

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Griff said:

FI flip flopping between settled and sunny, or alternatively, Winter's last hurrah! 

I'll take either to be honest...  

Winter barely had a first hurrah let alone last!  I will take the later....

[BlueHedgehog074]

Quite chilly, but must admit it was pleasant in the March sunshine today. Bit of a welcome break from the rain (even if it doesn’t last). The feeling of the air along with the brighter sun making it feel that Spring is wanting to pop on by. Today’s chart resulting in some quite pretty convective clouds, too, in the calm North-Westerly breeze!

Something else have noticed - a Channel Low is being thrown up yet again in the models - this time from the 12Z ECMWF at 168 hours:

A puny little one! Sorry though 12Z ECMWF, not gonna be fooled.  The last Channels Lows the Southern UK had were marginal for lower level snow (certainly the settling kind). I’m not going to be filling my hopes up that it could snow next Friday!

*goes off to sneak into the ECMWF Headquarters to get ahold of next Friday’s precipitation type charts*  

[Griff]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Winter barely had a first hurrah let alone last!  I will take the later....

At this rate it might be the last hurrah of the final ever winter, although it's possible that might have been 2018... 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Griff

[stodge]

Evening All

ECM 12Z OP continues the familiar theme for vigorous LP systems crossing over or close to the British Isles in the coming 7-10 days.

Brief milder incursions mainly for the south but plenty of rain to come.

GFS 12Z OP has another go at displacing the PV in FI and that allows height rises over Scandinavia but we'll see. The GEFS are a complete mix but with a tendency for more anticyclonic options as we move past mid month though the positioning and orientation of the HP vary considerably as you would expect.  

[Don]

13 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. 

Whilst I largely agree with this, as I mentioned in my previous post, some parts experienced significant snowfalls last year without a deep cold source and it hung around for 3/4 days, so all is not lost just yet!  However, as the years tick by, snow sadly will become a rarer event for this country and winter holidays to Canada will be required for those of us who need a snow fix!

[feb1991blizzard]

Is this gonna be a screaming NE flow in about 8 frames time?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is this gonna be a screaming NE flow in about 8 frames time?

Possibly but it won't come off!

[snowray]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

Possibly but it won't come off!

Really? Bloody close though. 

Thames Streamer there....

 

 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Really? Bloody close though. 

Thames Streamer there....

 

 

Problem is that's Saturday 21st and not the 7th!

[Zak M]

Saturday looks like a wet day (as most winter/spring days are ) with a warm front moving through, bringing along with it some milder temperatures and some bands of rain.

On Saturday morning, most of the rain will be up north, with some heavy bursts possible. Some of the rain will also be present over parts of Wales, mostly over the hilltops. Some of the bands of rain could turn to sleet or snow over the hills of Scotland.

Elsewhere, it's a cloudy morning, especially in southern and eastern England, where a few drops of rain or drizzle are possible.

Temperatures in the south should range from 3-7c in the south, and 1-5c in the north.

More bands of rain start to move through on Saturday afternoon, especially over Ireland, where a band of more heavy and persistent rain starts to move eastwards. In the late afternoon, the rain will start to arrive in places like Scotland and over northern areas. The rain will be the heaviest over the hills of the north, where the chances of flooding are quite low, but still could be possible.

It's the same picture for Saturday afternoon for places like the south and the east, where cloud and perhaps some rain could be present. The rain affecting the south and east shouldn't be as heavy compared to other areas.

During the afternoon, the warm front moves through, introducing some more milder temperatures. The temperatures should range from 9-13c in the south, and 5-12c in the north.

Then on Saturday evening, the heavy band of rain starts to affect western areas of the UK, like Wales, NW England and the majority of Scotland. The rain will include some heavy bursts, especially over the hills, where heavy rain is likely and flooding could be possible.

The band of rain doesn't move into eastern areas until the early hours of Sunday morning, meaning that Saturday afternoon for eastern and perhaps southern areas will just be grey and overcast.

It will still feel quite mild out there, even in the night, with temperatures ranging from 8-11c in the south, and 3-11c in the north.

Enjoy your Saturday! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Number 2 for me this time.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Number 2 for me this time.

Always FI these days!

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters trying to go more amplified by D8. 

Need a day or two more to see if this will firm up. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Man With Beard

[snowray]

18z ensembles painting a cold picture as we go towards mid March, no sign of anything significantly mild there.

 

[Kentspur]

Snow next week? Or another GFS tease?

[Don]

19 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Snow next week? Or another GFS tease?

Another tease I should think!

[Zak M]

GFS is still going for a more settled and milder picture at the end of March, as seen in the charts below. It's showing 12-15c in places in the south.

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

GFS is still going for a more settled and milder picture at the end of March, as seen in the charts below. It's showing 12-15c in places in the south.

You'll need your flip flopps, I mean watch it flip back and forth each run between this and winter! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Yep Zak!  (Edit: And a good point made by Griff too)

00Z GEFS ensemble mean going along a similar track:

 

Low Pressure fairly close by to the North West of the UK at 240 hours, but the mean does show possible signs of the Jet Stream lifting further North and some pressure rises over the UK. (The charts may not be in correct order due to how they were uploaded).

Took a look at the GEFS ensemble Air Pressure graphs too. Both for London and Aberdeenshire below. While they do show some quite big scatter beyond 13th/14th March, there appears to be a bit of a trend for a possible pressure rise over the UK.

Though the operational and control run may been over-doing their build of pressure over the UK. But not total outliers.

The 8 to 14 day NOAA anomaly chart not quite on board yet with more of a troughing feature (albeit shallow) over the UK accompanied by slightly lower than average heights.

 

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Which in a way is making me a bit weary for now. Can hope the operational models such as the GFS is on to something (those that want a milder/warmer and settled spell). Perhaps also worth pointing out that the transition period of any possible pressure rise could be affecting what the anomaly chart above shows. Clearly, however, the anomaly chart might just continue with a more changeable unsettled theme. May be the case should any possible pressure rises easily get under the day 10 mark, then the NOAA anomaly chart could start picking it out. 

Some milder, sunnier, Spring weather that lasts a good while would be awesome (It can still snow one or two times here before it’s too late as well though) 

Edited March 7, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
(Spelling mistake)

[Methuselah]

Well, what have we here, then? And it's for Friday 13th: 

    

But just remember: the last time I wittered about 'marginal snow-chances' it was for yesterday...Which was 12C and sunny!

[Griff]

Looks like it might flip again... 

Latest vs previous 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Griff