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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not quite as simple as that. I daresay that there were plenty of channel lows which produced rain back in the day. Remember that we are also into March now, making the chances of snow considerably less than would be the case in deep winter.

Very true but as the climate warms, it will get harder to achieve snow events from these setups.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Another cold GFS run again. in snaps rather than uniformly cold is a recurrent theme now for quite a few runs.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

And just for fun because it's my birthday in less than an hour... Silly FI

gfsnh-0-354 (1).png

gfsnh-1-360.png

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another cold GFS run again. in snaps rather than uniformly cold is a recurrent theme now for quite a few runs.

Yes, I was hoping tonight's would be less flat than the previous, probably all change again come morning, but there seems to be a suggestion at least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
4 hours ago, Griff said:

And just for fun because it's my birthday in less than an hour... Silly FI

gfsnh-0-354 (1).png

gfsnh-1-360.png

Seeing as that's my birthday weekend it stands a better chance, as I normally go snow hunting abroad that weekend but when I do, it normally snows here. Though I hit the jackpot in Iceland last year, but missed northern lights due to constant snow. Seems they've had a fair bit this season from looking at tv forecasts showing constantly white blobs over most of the country.

I've cancelled by Pisa trip, so may just chance bonny Scotland instead. Finger & toes xd

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Posted
  • Location: bath
  • Weather Preferences: Anything under4 deg. In winter and anything over 20deg in the summer!
  • Location: bath
10 hours ago, Don said:

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Signs continuing to emerge this morning of something more springlike in nature with mid March still holding the promise of far less unsettled conditions with heights encroaching from the southwest. Fingers crossed!!

A45D4510-535B-4A07-A887-BAC3F093D31E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
10 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

Every cloud has a silver lining 8)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Very tentative signs (if the 00Z is anything like accurate) of something less-unsettled developing after Day 7...Though, I wouldn't bet my house on it!:oldlaugh:

T+204: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

T+279: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Not that slower-moving weather is always a good thing, however:

T+324: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
34 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

I,m afraid I disagree with this having lived close to the south coast for the past 60 years I can assure you that not every low moving through the channel in winter has brought snow. There have been plenty of occasions where cold rain and sleet have been the outcome. The fact is that without a feed of relatively dry cold air to tap into the outcome for lowland southern England is always likely to be cold rain/sleet rather than settling snow. 

I can also remember events when even with a cold feed wet snow that didn't settle was what we got  on low ground. In those situations. Shaftesbury and the north Dorset hills would get settling snow. I know because I used to drive up there from the wet coast to see it.  Without a feed of dry cold continental air it is always marginal down here.   

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.a0924a6db01e6557b125352dfa300598.png

ECM OP an outlier this morning. Probably not going to be be that settled...

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
15 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Anomaly charts are from yesterday....who knows. 

they were current.
true though that for that period they arent now quite as bullish, and this morning for that period they are looking pretty average which must be welcome. But thats a long way off and firstly we have a rather turbulent week to get through with wind, rain, gales, snowshowers, bright fresh sunny spells.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

D10 - Atlantic conveyor slowing down:
image.thumb.png.52b1f24c66148f3d553dd3948e4ab486.png

D12 - Smorgasbord of options:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030600_300.

D15 - Wind and rain could be finally starting to fade into the ether:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030600_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 06Z at Day 10...Will it happen this time, or is it merely another chimera?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Only time will tell!:unsure2:

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

In fi the 00z and 06z are not too dissimilar in our locale on GFS with a low to the SW and a Easterly. Latest 6z maintains the signal for snow for the North this time with a fairly long drawn Easterly. ECM clusters are all over the place so it's a possibility atleast. Now why couldnt this have happened a month or 2 ago?!

20200306_110811.jpg

20200306_110748.jpg

20200306_110716.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all

As I've remarked on the strat thread the GFS is again showing a signal for change with the PV finally weakening and the Atlantic slowing.

gfs-0-318.png?6

We've been here before of course but there has been a signal for this change to occur after mid month for a while (muted at times admittedly). The 00Z Ensembles (as with the ECM) showing no clear trend as we go past mid month and especially toward the end of the week after next.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, stodge said:

I'll raise you P14:

image.thumb.png.b77be35bea8cd0f810760fc14bc429f5.png

Yes - good spot - wonder if i missed that one because i would have had that better as well - i don't always go through them in order - bizarre i know but i look at the graph and also i tend to look at which ones are 'on form' or have 'cold biases' first.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

While the pattern to date suggests the models will flatten closer to the time the day 9-13 outlook (and Euro appears to agree) does suggest quite a lovely spring spell away from the north west. Rising uppers would probably get us into the mid to high teens.

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

What a difference between the ECM op and the mean. The former having us becoming more settled and warmer, while the latter keeps us colder and less settled! Personally I think the op may have lost the plot, be of interest to see where the 12s take this. 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

graphe0_00_280_108___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Later tonight into tomorrow morning rain with some hill snow at first moves into Western Scotland with 30-50mm of rain likely here by the end of the day then an active cold front with strong winds moves eastward across the whole country later tomorrow into Sunday morning with the heaviest rain then likely for parts of Wales and northwestern England where 30-50mm may accumulate in places here too. 

Gfs..

1247882171_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_42(1).thumb.jpg.0bef224961b6b640531d7ce9d86e1e0b.jpg

Behind this though Sunday will be showery for many some of these may be accompanied by hail with thunder a possibility also the risk of more organised showery rain in places too. 

Into the early half of next week it remains very unsettled with another band of rain heavy at times particularly again for Western parts of Scotland and England crossing the country later Monday into Tuesday accompanied by very windy conditions, Then after this band of rain clears further heavy rain is likely for the north during Tuesday particularly western Scotland hill snow also possible perhaps an additional 40-60mm accumulating here all accompanied by very windy conditions with a risk of gales in places. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_84.thumb.jpg.b88b11e96d87444e42b536312c710c7b.jpg

Potentially very mild for England and Wales on Tuesday temperatures possibly reaching 15-16c in places. 

It remains unsettled for the rest of next week with further rain and strong winds at times also the risk of sleet and snow on hills further north. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_156.thumb.jpg.b25055338caf428e665e2291fa48d2c1.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I know it's Day 12...But, hey, if that's where the sunshine is?:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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