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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS just likes to tease, I know deep FI never to be seen, but surprised this output is still showing, given how quiet it is here this morning... 

gfsnh-1-282.png

gfsnh-0-282 (1).png

Ever heard the expression... Once bitten, twice shy? 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Snowfish2 said:

Ever heard the expression... Once bitten, twice shy? 

Yeah, but if that was sincerely the case, none of us would ever come back

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter. 

EFA2B1A7-B2A2-432C-8208-F3B8322B8CD8.jpeg

ECM not buying it admittedly.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yeah, but if that was sincerely the case, none of us would ever come back

Yea I agree we are like ready for another one... Lambs to the slaughter 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Extended ECM doesn't have much of a clue past mid month:

image.thumb.png.4d57602834362b951a0b65c6b44f3720.pngimage.thumb.png.d9b665737bb88f9af9a30b80e5071122.png

Something from the west still looks most likely,but this could take any form at the moment. At least the very deep troughing looks to be gone (D7 below)

image.thumb.png.6d596e583e052fd5c4e7847853b0a58b.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Indeed - a wide area of 20-30 mm rainfall totals likely when the noon runs of the previous day had only a few mm for most, up to 10 mm far south coast from GFS and ECM, other models even less.

An exceptionally large mishap! Fascinating dynamical difficulties.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Indeed - a wide area of 20-30 mm rainfall totals likely when the noon runs of the previous day had only a few mm for most, up to 10 mm far south coast from GFS and ECM, other models even less.

An exceptionally large mishap! Fascinating dynamical difficulties.

The 1800 ecm did start edging the rain north and as far as I can see, the problem was/is the precise movement of the low and associated front I did note a METO broadcast mentioning the doubt about this yesterday

1395806822_ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-341680000.thumb.png.0c20e9d6829dcbffeb3dbc68f1539f99.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-3416800.thumb.png.b3d3df633340d8bfca94f2cc1e7c67fa.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.280e63929043c25d00460b519824c5ab.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hopefully, signs that the isobars may slacken-off a tad?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

As for whether it'll be warm/cold/wet/dry, who knows?:unsure2:

And who would sat 'nyet' to the T+384 chart? Not me!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

I'm really surprised to see how far north the PPN has got, Met Office had this channel low way to the south of the UK last night, how can they have been so far out? All rain of course, if it had been cold enough for snow it would have surely missed the south. 

GFS once again was spot on, they always showed it further north.

 

 

6-574UK.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

2 the best GEFS member - its a stonker from this point right the way through to the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.0a5f570c339afd9dccae220153220079.png

 

image.thumb.png.563d3f43e7fb4e6bb77b093a09b15d9f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 hours ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Yes I was surprised too ... blimey imagine if it had been a bit colder upstream, what with it being the northern edge of a channel low, the south coast would have been buried in snow today with no warning at all, would have been a forecasting catastrophe, an awful lot of rain has fallen here in Portsmouth today (12mm in last 12 hours) compared with the next to nothing predicted 24 hours ago.

On to the future, I know the clusters have been covered by others already but to add my slant on it, there does seem to be a repetitive pattern of the ECM trying to building pressure further north into the mid-Atlantic at around D10 but it all falling to pieces by D8. Will this go the same way? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030500_264.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

GFS 12Z has got a slightly colder take on a week's time... 

gfsnh-1-186.png

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Longer-term we can but hope for a respite, from all this wind and rain:

T+219: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+318: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+348: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Methinks we've been here before?

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Longer-term we can but hope for a respite, from all this wind and rain:

T+219: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+318: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+348: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Methinks we've been here before?

Would beat wet and cold, but chances are it comes back from the pub tonight with different ideas again? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Looking at day 8 onwards, some more settled and milder weather will be in place over the UK.

gfs.thumb.png.9cc659ae135d9bdbe4f4bebb13ab01b6.png

gfs0.thumb.png.88ed2ee8f0c543c5554c219662d4a0c2.png

gfs1.thumb.png.8cde2a138fe45d76caaad74b67d59b6c.png

gfs2.thumb.png.a18d44fadf7431cc62f01937d8001932.png

gfs3.thumb.png.9dbeac26c40c8ea3dba79f0803cb5e8e.png

It isn't until day 13 however when the more settled and milder weather gradually and slowly starts to slip away leading to cold air taking over for most of the UK.

gfs4.thumb.png.7fd8e89b3e30b92b5907789ec8fb7aa6.png

gfs5.thumb.png.267718d2fbf7ff5166ef102f493ce3cc.png

gfs6.thumb.png.0c785fab8d0904f8bc19dd6e56198402.png

gfs7.thumb.png.869637a89eab56b8f2989def1d88fe00.png

On days 13 and 14, some warm temperatures are present over the SE, ranging from 14-18c at the greatest. Central France reaching into the low 20s on day 13.

gfs8.thumb.png.0f181ee1d0b2084d71ab24b27b9eafb5.png

gfs9.thumb.png.7dbbff3df4c481665bc7fc38b6ddb1a7.png

gfs10.thumb.png.0fc49838aa410f08dcc315f0fe192b80.png

gfs11.thumb.png.6b6d589f3b64b16e954114888351a7c4.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The GFS 12z might be trying to fool us with the promise of something better.... but the anomalies dont agree, and look distinctly chilly, breezy and unsettled.  Has the 12z identified a new pattern or is it an outlier?



 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The GFS 12z might be trying to fool us with the promise of something better.... but the anomalies dont agree, and look distinctly chilly, breezy and unsettled.  Has the 12z identified a new pattern or is it an outlier?



 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

Anomaly charts are from yesterday....who knows. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Can't help but think if today's Channel low was 30-40 years ago it would have produced laying snow at all elevations even with the same broadscale pattern, and not the fail-safe cold/dry sourced surface easterly flow in place like March 2018. But given the polar air ahead of the low is probably mixed out by anomalously warm Atlantic Tm air of modified more these days with arrival of the low, it's been a struggle even though we've had a number of channel lows over recent days. Remember last Thursday's Channel low it tried to snow, wet snow at lower levels, and only temporary proper snow settling at elevation.

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
34 minutes ago, Don said:

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

Not quite as simple as that. I daresay that there were plenty of channel lows which produced rain back in the day. Remember that we are also into March now, making the chances of snow considerably less than would be the case in deep winter.

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