Model output discussion 02/02/20

[SMU]

If your looking for a sniff of Winter then PTB 4 is pretty close

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If your looking for a sniff of Winter then PTB 4 is pretty close

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

The operational isn't far off.

[Methuselah]

Come to Daddy? Widespread -8C uppers ought to do it, given increasing overland convection?

    

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Come to Daddy? Widespread -8C uppers ought to do it, given increasing overland convection?

 

Yes - turns into a complete snowfest in FI.

[Methuselah]

Could we be headed for a 1975-esque 'last hurrah'? I wouldn't mind that, myself; but please Mr God, don't let it last all the way into June!

    

 

[Man With Beard]

Hopes of a more settled period for mid-March ... not looking good anymore on the EC clusters. Very unsettled ensembles now very much in the ascendancy into the 2nd third of the month. Pressure rises to the east in the minority for now.

  

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Could we be headed for a 1975-esque 'last hurrah'? I wouldn't mind that, myself; but please Mr God, don't let it last all the way into June!

    

 

Can last until xmas as far as i am concerned - lets instead of having an extended Autumn all the year around, have an extended winter for once.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hopes of a more settled period for mid-March ... not looking good anymore on the EC clusters. Very unsettled ensembles now very much in the ascendancy into the 2nd third of the month. Pressure rises to the east in the minority for now.

  

Was just going to say the same. Anyone hoping for some settled weather may we waiting quite a while longer yet. As usual, Atlantic influences underplayed, and look like dominating for the next 2-3 weeks at least. When will it end!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Number 7 for me the best this time, -12c isotherm quite widely and a full on blizzard for the South, South West and South of Ireland, wonder how many times that kind of a blizzard has occured on the South coast of the ROI deep into March before.

Edited March 2, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Josh Rubio]

How far in advanced do deep areas of low pressure start to show on the models? I ask because I have an outdoor event in the NW (Manchester) on Saturday the 14th. I assume it’s too early to know at this stage? 

[snowrye]

Just now, Josh Rubio said:

How far in advanced do deep areas of low pressure start to show on the models? I ask because I have an outdoor event in the NW (Manchester) on Saturday the 14th. I assume it’s too early to know at this stage? 

Way too soon to know what the weather will do in 12 days time, soz if off topic

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can last until xmas as far as i am concerned - lets instead of having an extended Autumn all the year around, have an extended winter for once.

Hey Feb, I admire your staying power... All round cold snaps!! They don't come much more hardcore than you mate. GFS operational says to spring.... You are the weakest link... Goodbye!! Mid month snow charts are insane!! Now I would say, snow charts this far out are highly unlikely... But on the other hand if we can just get some decent cold locked in.... Then maybe not!! Interesting to see all the same. 

Edit... The bottom gif is what I would love to see some time this month.... Please god.... Make it so...

 

[frosty ground]

GFS Direction of Travel yesterdays 18z Vs todays 12Z

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS Direction of Travel yesterdays 18z Vs todays 12Z

Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?

[Zak M]

Tuesday will be a day similar to today, with scattered showers affecting the majority of the British Isles.

Tuesday morning

On Tuesday morning, a band of cloud will drift eastwards across the UK, mainly affecting Wales and some northern places. This band of cloud could produce some rain, perhaps heavy. Some frost patches in the north due to low temperatures are possible.

Elsewhere, it will be a mostly dry morning, with most places having a chance of getting stuck in the odd shower. 

It will be a chilly morning tomorrow. Temperatures in the morning in the south should range from 0 - 5c, and temperatures in the north should range from -3 - 3c.

Tuesday afternoon

On Tuesday afternoon, the band of cloud and perhaps some rain that was originally over Wales and some places in the north should reach eastern parts of England by the afternoon, with a chance of some of the rain embedded in the band of cloud becoming heavy.

Behind the band of cloud and rain, showers will gradually develop. In the early afternoon, the showers will be present in more western areas. Later in the afternoon, however, they will start to move SE, meaning that almost anywhere has the chance of seeing a shower. These showers could be heavy, with hail possibly accompanied in the showers.

These showers will be the heaviest in the NW of England and Scotland, where some hail and even thunder could be possible. If one of these showers travel across the hills in the north, then sleet/snow will be possible.

It might feel a bit chilly still in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south ranging from 6-10c in the south, and 2-7c in the north.

Tuesday evening

On Tuesday evening, most of the showers across England will gradually start to fade away, leaving a mostly dry evening and perhaps seeing some nice evening sunshine. 

The showers will still occur however across some northern areas, particularly Scotland, where more showers start to pack in from the west, making it a pretty wet evening. Hail is possible in these showers, along with sleet and snow possible if they travel over the hills. Some sunshine is possible inbetween the showers.

A chilly evening and night to come for the British Isles tomorrow, where temperatures in the south ranging from 2-6c, and ranging from 0-5c in the north.

Enjoy the rest of your Monday! 

[Methuselah]

Well then, it might snow sometime during the next 7-days; but, even if it doesn't, next Tuesday still looks like being a stonker, for those of us who work outside...?

    

But, as we're all so very aware, 8-days is a long time in GFS World!

Edited March 2, 2020 by General Cluster
one more in a long line of typos!

[IDO]

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?

The Russian High (block) is the game changer over the last 36-hours and has slowed the Atlantic and modelling pressure drops near the UK with colder air channelling to our NW/N:

36h ago chart>12z>

D11 profile:

[NewEra21]

Winter is coming!!

[Methuselah]

YeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHaw!

    

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

YeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHaw!

    

Only 13 days to go

[cheshire snow]

6 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Winter is coming!!

If it is still like that in 10 days time I may start to get interested

C.S

[Zak M]

Now that's what I want to see!!

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Now that's what I want to see!!

I'd love to see charts with the associated temperatures too, I'm being cynical but are we looking at cold and wet or cold enough for snow? 

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, after a week of unrelenting similarity, the models are starting to sniff change in the air (or something else, in my part of London you never can tell). The attempt to build a wedge of heights fails on the OP but doesn't on the Control leading to trough disruption and a warm SE'ly.

The CFS 06Z monthly is eye candy for cold weather fans (the T+534 chart is a thing of beauty especially for the SE). 

I can't quite see why the 12Z GFS OP does what it does - the PV still seems very strong over NW Greenland while the Control takes the bulk of the PV energy over the Pole to Siberia. The 10 HPA on the 12Z OP looks interesting as the coldest strat profile seems to transfer back from Siberia to Canada in far FI - all very curious.

GEM keeps the zonal train on the rails to T+240 while ECM 12Z is still rolling and we'll see.

Is this a GFS curiousity or is there a new signal in town? 

[Griff]

14 minutes ago, stodge said:

Is this a GFS curiousity or is there a new signal in town? 

Funny, I asked the same question about a week ago and was told fairly emphatically that models are being skewed by the expiring PV, as it does at this time of year. And more so, I shouldn't trouble myself with thoughts of cold. 

Well PV remains, and rose tinted optimism exists. I've checked the 850s for FI and they would deliver, but what chance of counting down 2 weeks?