Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

For more southern parts then it will be just rain unfortunately.

Yep, same old cold rain!

[booferking]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

And ECM follows suit with an absolutely dreadful outlook at T240:

My comment earlier about the strat vortex, it is forecast to go out of this world (into the mesosphere sic!) on the fairly near term GFS:

All the talk of a weak vortex in November & December last year could be different blah blah blah this coming winter i hope to see the vortex through the ceiling early doors October.

Edited March 1, 2020 by booferking

[Mike Poole]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The state of that vortex! Looks more akin to December than March.

I think the worry has to be that we get a major final late warming that promotes HLB and even more wet weather into late spring/summer.

Yes, Crewe, I think the nature of the final warming is the essential thing for long term impacts, and it is much more than we will get a hot/dry/wet/thundery summer now, it could even have implications for life with the coronavirus situation.  

There are to mind two scenarios. I said some of this the other day:

• The strat PV gradually diffuses and the wet and windy weather over the the UK gradually blows itself out by the time we get to May, and (probably) a warm/hot summer ensues for the south foremost, maybe less so further north, I'm not suggesting this would be a repeat of 2018., or 
• At some point, this whole setup in the atmosphere, trop and strat, becomes unstable with the transition from winter to summer, and a so-called 'dynamic final warming' happens...same as SSW except that the strat never recovers until next winter...this could lead to a cold and wet start to summer in the UK, shudder....

So which will happen?  Well we know that high heights in Scandi, and low heights in the Aleutians  promotes wave 1 impacts  on the strat vortex, so is that likely in the current model output?  No.  GEFS and ECM Z500 anomaly at T240:

So my money is on a slow peter out of the strat vortex, not sure though, at all...we will see....

[Ols500]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The strat PV gradually diffuses and the wet and windy weather over the the UK gradually blows itself out by the time we get to May, and (probably) a warm/hot summer ensues for the south foremost, maybe less so further north, I'm not suggesting this would be a repeat of 2018., or

I beg, i would take 2018 every year so nice and sunny

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

For more southern parts then it will be just rain unfortunately.

He chunders slightly.... 

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely little sister sledge with some WAA on the 18z.

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely little sister sledge with some WAA on the 18z.

Is that a ramp for coldies?

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that a ramp for coldies?

Look at how the atlantic hits a brick wall compared to most runs recently.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at how the atlantic hits a brick wall compared to most runs recently.

Hey Feb, I reckon Spring this year is gonna be a late starter.... Good old GFS 18z bringing us the snow again in fi... I've been saying its coming since November.... Surely to god one of these days I will be right!

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Feb, I reckon Spring this year is gonna be a late starter.... Good old GFS 18z bringing us the snow again in fi... I've been saying its coming since November.... Surely to god one of these days I will be right!

 

 

Don't know when easter is but a nice abrupt final SSW would be nice - white Easter and cold wet spring anyone?

[Frosty_wsm]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know when easter is but a nice abrupt final SSW would be nice - white Easter and cold wet spring anyone?

Can't think of anything more unpleasant to be honest considering the soaking wet autumn & winter we've just had but with the pv still churning away as strong as ever I can't see the crud pattern we've been stuck in for the last 3 months changing any time soon. 

[Don]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know when easter is but a nice abrupt final SSW would be nice - white Easter and cold wet spring anyone?

A spring similar to 2008 wouldn’t be bad with something for everyone.

[Allseasons-Si]

C'on guys,i am looking for a big straw to clutch here to see this winter out

although the gfs looks mild with a big fat hp cell over the UK,the orientation of it can be misleading and it wouldn't take much of a tweak to look like some of the 12z ens i post earlier

 

speaking of which,the control run does

 

is it just me that want's to see some snow settle before the winter is well and truly out,it has been a woeful winter here with not one event of snow on the ground all winter

march can deliver as march 2013 proved and it could happen again this year

my towel will be kept in my hand until the Easter bunny takes it away from me when i am asleep lol

night guys.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[feb1991blizzard]

43 minutes ago, Don said:

A spring similar to 2008 wouldn’t be bad with something for everyone.

Didnt get any benefit of that - was in Manchester and never got snow, it was too marginal, rather have it though than Spring 2011

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looks like some further chilly weather to come on the models this week. The charts showing some quite cold Westerly to North-Westerly winds tomorrow and Tuesday for the UK. Continuing a similar theme of today. Chilliest conditions towards the North of the UK with showers over North-Western parts at times, some of which could spread further East. And the airmass looks cold enough for showers to have a wintry flavour, even to some lower levels with quite low heights and fairly cold 850 hPa temperatures.

Feel like with regards to Wednesday/Thursday’s Low, there’s still some uncertainties with this. The latest GFS, for example, tracks it through Central UK bringing some possible sleet and snow to Northern England while the ECMWF has a more slacker Low that it seems to track through the Channel into France. While likely to be (very) marginal event, this Low could produce a surprise or two to some places. Especially on high ground (but maybe some lower level areas could see something white too). Heavy precipitation, though, could help increase chances of some lower level wintry weather from evaporative cooling. Where any sleet or snow falls does also depend on the Low’s track and direction, plus the amount of cold air it runs into. 

What I feel is interesting as well, is the disturbance from the Atlantic that follows on later during Thursday and into Friday. Using GFS as example:

The GFS might be exaggerating the chilly 850 hPa temperatures... but it seems like there is a tendency for the GFS to squeeze out that milder sector of 850 hPa temperatures as the disturbance slowly heads Eastwards through the UK. Did something similar on its previous run.

The Low on that 18Z run however getting vertically squashed with some disruption over the UK. -5*C and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures pushing aside the milder 850 hPa temperatures from most places (except perhaps for some Southern areas of the UK). As such, any precipitation that arrives from the West later on Thursday could become increasingly wintry as it slowly moves East. Could provide another opportunity for some possible, more widespread, wintry weather. May even find the precipitation struggles to get far enough East through many areas of the UK or stall and/or fragment over the UK. Depending how things continue to develop. 

Some of these possibilities could just turn out to be cr - cold rain - but I think certainly any sleet or snow chances is better than none at all. Well for those (include myself in this, despite longing for warmer conditions too), after the white stuff. And especially for anyone who still hasn’t even seen a flake fall yet 

Edited March 2, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looks like some further chilly weather to come on the models this week. The charts showing some quite cold Westerly to North-Westerly winds tomorrow and Tuesday for the UK. Continuing a similar theme of today. Chilliest conditions towards the North of the UK with showers over North-Western parts at times, some of which could spread further East. And the airmass looks cold enough for showers to have a wintry flavour, even to some lower levels with quite low heights and fairly cold 850 hPa temperatures.

Feel like with regards to Wednesday/Thursday’s Low, there’s still some uncertainties with this. The latest GFS, for example, tracks it through Central UK bringing some possible sleet and snow to Northern England while the ECMWF has a more slacker Low that it seems to track through the Channel into France. While likely to be (very) marginal event, this Low could produce a surprise or two to some places. Especially on high ground (but maybe some lower level areas could see something white too). Heavy precipitation, though, could help increase chances of some lower level wintry weather from evaporative cooling. Where any sleet or snow falls does also depend on the Low’s track and direction, plus the amount of cold air it runs into. 

What I feel is interesting as well, is the disturbance from the Atlantic that follows on later during Thursday and into Friday. Using GFS as example:

The GFS might be exaggerating the chilly 850 hPa temperatures... but it seems like there is a tendency for the GFS to squeeze out that milder sector of 850 hPa temperatures as the disturbance slowly heads Eastwards through the UK. Did something similar on its previous run.

The Low on that 18Z run however getting vertically squashed with some disruption over the UK. -5*C and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures pushing aside the milder 850 hPa temperatures from most places (except perhaps for some Southern areas of the UK). As such, any precipitation that arrives from the West later on Thursday could become increasingly wintry as it slowly moves East. Could provide another opportunity for some possible, more widespread, wintry weather. May even find the precipitation struggles to get far enough East through many areas of the UK or stall and/or fragment over the UK. Depending how things continue to develop. 

Some of these possibilities could just turn out to be cr - cold rain - but I think certainly any sleet or snow chances is better than none at all. Well for those (include myself in this, despite longing for warmer conditions too), after the white stuff. And especially for anyone who still hasn’t even seen a flake fall yet 

Yes, that would be us on the east kent coast for. A. Start  * *

[Newberryone]

Some brief respite from all the wind and rain it would seem through this week fortunately but the overnight Ecm still holding firm on the possibility of a general return to more unsettled even quite disturbed weather towards the end of the run. Amazing to still see the pv so unrelenting in nature.

[Beanz]

Well winter has ended and without much in the way of snow or notable cold spells.  Still we move on, there’s always next winter! 

Both ECM and GFS trending towards a dry and more settled outlook (ECM just a bit wet and stormy later on), if we can keep the low sitting just out of sight and let our friend Uncle Azores in a bit I think we’ll be good for Spring.  

 

[Tim Bland]

ECM taking the more southerly route with the low on weds night / Thurs morn with some snow on its norther edge, still one to watch ...

[shaky]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM taking the more southerly route with the low on weds night / Thurs morn with some snow on its norther edge, still one to watch ...

Cant believe the ukmo trumped ecm at just 96 hours in regards to that mid week low!!ecm and gfs did not really have that low crossing southern counties where as ukmo did!!well done to the ukmo!!!

[SMU]

Homing in on a Northerly ( possibly weak ) by the end of the week

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Homing in on a Northerly ( possibly weak ) by the end of the week

Steve you gota give it to the ukmo in regards to the what it was showing yesterday between 96 and 120 hours!!got it spot on!!gfs and ecm were flatter!!gfs now looks completely different!!

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Homing in on a Northerly ( possibly weak ) by the end of the week

 

It nearly turns into an Easterly as well

[nick sussex]

Both the ECM and UKMO if you compare yesterday’s 00hrs runs to day 5 with today’s to day 4 are a bit more amplified but the GFS really is developing much more amplitude .

We’re now seeing some trough disruption as that comes up against the high over Scandi.

 

[SMU]

Be interesting if we could go from GFS 06z to a bit more amplification come the 12z !

The -8c Cold pool not to far to the East

Edited March 2, 2020 by Steve Murr