Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Wednesdays little low could produce some interest, once again marginal stuff though.

 

gfs-0-78.png

gfs-1-84.png

78-574UK.gif

81-574UK.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some marginal potential on Friday, too?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

Indeed. The snow is mainly for northern places though.

snow.thumb.png.df115210919ae14553c77fc9820c2091.pngsnow0.thumb.png.9e5c3e640baea95381397f4f85dfaba1.pngsnow1.thumb.png.db0128cdb7d01ba155bec403ae825d88.pngsnow2.thumb.png.cf1a2974e22dd0dd0fc0fd14fd9c0461.png

The GEM 12z is also showing snow in the band of rain too.

snow3.thumb.png.b397576ef17b6a86196c3b17da627b1b.pngsnow4.thumb.png.8bece6bcdd111d4fd65c5c5c4af1509d.pngsnow5.thumb.png.12f4ce0aaf918cd0fce3a666ea39e544.pngsnow6.thumb.png.9e760daf8c2286551ffe6c7c6cd6019d.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

Does that align with the comment from General Cluster who commented "Some marginal potential on Friday"....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

Looks like it. Another big fail and no sign of drier weather at all now.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Now this would be cold enough? What's more...where's Spring gone!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is the GFS doing a U-turn?:shok:

U-turn it is then...Should've paid more attention to JH & Mushy!:oldsorry:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

So now the GFS isn't in the mood for spring, and is now hinting for a more unsettled picture in mid March. The isobars are quite tight together, meaning that strong winds and heavy rain will be associated with it. Did I see this coming? Yes.

I like stormy weather (more convective style) but I am starting to get a bit annoyed now. It is just typical for something like that to happen.

I will probably get replies saying that it is still over 2 weeks away and that it will change (even I have said that multiple times before) but it just looks like it won't happen. The GFS is mostly always verifying very unsettled weather from day 14 onwards.

Sorry for the moaning, maybe not the right thread to moan in but it's just starting to become a pattern now. I need my warm and settled weather now!

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I know there has been talk in here of a settled high pressure period upcoming in here, which I have neither bought into or not bought into!  But it is on flimsy footing now with both the GFS and GEM by T240 looking very unsettled:

image.thumb.jpg.675cbf62f88154baa2782af14ce34ebf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.abf16e66fb13ff4ad34110ddc35911c0.jpg

And you kind of wonder, while the strat vortex still spins at record levels, if we should be sceptical of any prolonged settled spell that shows up in the models for a while...

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

U-turn it is then...Should've paid more attention to JH & Mushy!:oldsorry:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A very likely scenario, I was always slightly worried that HP would end up further west in the Atlantic and here we have it. Just goes to show how quickly a mild outlook in March can suddenly turn into a cold one.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

all JFF of course but this just highlight's that the models can change just like the wind lol

Exactly. One minute you're excited over something, and then the models just take it away from you.

Lets hope that the unsettled weather that most models are showing on day 14 onwards will also change as fast as the wind.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And ECM follows suit with an absolutely dreadful outlook at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a896332fa1efc53c15f27c91652432e8.jpg

My comment earlier about the strat vortex, it is forecast to go out of this world (into the mesosphere sic!) on the fairly near term GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.c3f8d14e70960f3c6792f9e1367411fd.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

So now the GFS isn't in the mood for spring, and is now hinting for a more unsettled picture in mid March. The isobars are quite tight together, meaning that strong winds and heavy rain will be associated with it. Did I see this coming? Yes.

I like stormy weather (more convective style) but I am starting to get a bit annoyed now. It is just typical for something like that to happen.

I will probably get replies saying that it is still over 2 weeks away and that it will change (even I have said that multiple times before) but it just looks like it won't happen. The GFS is mostly always verifying very unsettled weather from day 14 onwards.

Sorry for the moaning, maybe not the right thread to moan in but it's just starting to become a pattern now. I need my warm and settled weather now!

Zack young man, try not to get to disappointed by current trends and outlooks, it's only the 1st of March, and it's just as likely to bring cold and snow, as it is warm and sunny.... Plenty of time for the latter just yet. Oh and regarding the former, check out this perturbation!!! Ooooccchhhhhh.... Come to moma....

gens-1-1-360.png

gens-1-0-360.png

gens-1-0-372.png

3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Well yesterday’s sniff of HP is gone today. Looks like March will, at least to start, carry on with the same vile output that we’ve endured for the last 3 months. It’s the worst of all worlds - bad for coldies as it won’t be cold enough for snow, and even worse for those looking for spring warmth. Just hoping that the jet begins to meander north as the month progresses,

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Zack young man, try not to get to disappointed by current trends and outlooks, it's only the 1st of March, and it's just as likely to bring cold and snow, as it is warm and sunny.... Plenty of time for the latter just yet. Oh and regarding the former, check out this perturbation!!! Ooooccchhhhhh.... Come to moma....

gens-1-1-360.png

gens-1-0-360.png

gens-1-0-372.png

3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

Yes, nice to look at, Matt, but I can't see any way this could happen from here...it's dreadful, at this time of year we could be seeing unseasonal snowy spells, or surprise warm spells.....but no, the form horse ( why does it have to be a horse??,) the form cat is likely to be inside while the rain continues to fall! 

image.thumb.jpg.c4efd25b441e1e9c80903c990b2e8fe0.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, nice to look at, Matt, but I can't see any way this could happen from here...it's dreadful, at this time of year we could be seeing unseasonal snowy spells, or surprise warm spells.....but no, the form horse ( why does it have to be a horse??,) the form cat is likely to be inside while the rain continues to fall! 

image.thumb.jpg.c4efd25b441e1e9c80903c990b2e8fe0.jpg

I think all the time the PV continues to spin unrelenting, we are going to see any type of high pressure struggle to gain foothold, at least perhaps until later in the spring when the Azores high may become more dominant?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Indeed. The snow is mainly for northern places though.

snow.thumb.png.df115210919ae14553c77fc9820c2091.pngsnow0.thumb.png.9e5c3e640baea95381397f4f85dfaba1.pngsnow1.thumb.png.db0128cdb7d01ba155bec403ae825d88.pngsnow2.thumb.png.cf1a2974e22dd0dd0fc0fd14fd9c0461.png

The GEM 12z is also showing snow in the band of rain too.

snow3.thumb.png.b397576ef17b6a86196c3b17da627b1b.pngsnow4.thumb.png.8bece6bcdd111d4fd65c5c5c4af1509d.pngsnow5.thumb.png.12f4ce0aaf918cd0fce3a666ea39e544.pngsnow6.thumb.png.9e760daf8c2286551ffe6c7c6cd6019d.png

To be fair tho, those charts have to be the chocolate fireguard charts of the winter, In fact they must have run out of white pixels, those charts are very moderate compared to the whiteout charts posted in previous days, which delivered very little! Think its time to thow the towel in now and look foreward to some warmth.

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I know there has been talk in here of a settled high pressure period upcoming in here, which I have neither bought into or not bought into!  But it is on flimsy footing now with both the GFS and GEM by T240 looking very unsettled:

image.thumb.jpg.675cbf62f88154baa2782af14ce34ebf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.abf16e66fb13ff4ad34110ddc35911c0.jpg

And you kind of wonder, while the strat vortex still spins at record levels, if we should be sceptical of any prolonged settled spell that shows up in the models for a while...

The state of that vortex! Looks more akin to December than March.

I think the worry has to be that we get a major final late warming that promotes HLB and even more wet weather into late spring/summer.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Wednesday looks to be showing something:

wed.png

wed0.png

wed1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The state of that vortex! Looks more akin to December than March.

I think the worry has to be that we get a major final late warming that promotes HLB and even more wet weather into late spring/summer.

Well, that is certainly a possibility with a very unusual PV at the moment.  I'm not sure when we last had a similar PV as strong at this time of year and also, were there any consequences for late spring/summer?  Also, perhaps a strengthening Azores high could save it?

Edited by Don
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
14 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Wednesday looks to be showing something:

wed.png

wed0.png

wed1.png

More needless rain. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

More needless rain. 

For more southern parts then it will be just rain unfortunately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...