Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Tim Bland]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It looks like just running east . Of course if there was decent cold over the continent then the dive se would bring that air into play with lower dew points and drier air .

Its a shame these set ups didn’t appear a few weeks ago , so marginal but just that bit earlier could have made a difference .

Just about cold enough in GEM day 5 /6 definitely a chance of one or two more marginal events next week

[Zak M]

Storm Jorge is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain today.

Saturday morning

On Saturday morning, bands of persistent rain will be present across Wales, SW England, and some parts of northern England and Scotland. This band of rain will include some heavy bursts. The main problem is that it has been a very wet February this year and this rain is falling over saturated ground, so it's not good news - especially for the areas that have been affected or have almost been affected by flooding. Parts of eastern England won't see this band of rain until 6:00.

Also, within the band of heavy, persistent rain, some squally winds will form within. This could cause some strong wind gusts for a short period of time and very heavy rainfall for a short period of time. In Northern Ireland, the band of rain should have passed through in the very late hours of Friday and perhaps the early hours of Saturday.

It will be quite a mild morning across the British Isles, with temperatures in the south ranging from 8-12c, and ranging from 5-11c in the north. The band of rain that will be sweeping through is a cold front and places like Northern Ireland that the heavy rain has already passed over will bring colder temperatures and a chillier morning than most parts of the British Isles.

Saturday afternoon

On Saturday afternoon, the band of rain that is supposed to pass through the British Isles would have cleared now, meaning that the cold front will bring colder air to the UK. Over the hills of Scotland, where some parts of the rain clear, some sleet or snow is possible. 

Along with the colder air, showers will start to dig in from the west. These showers could be heavy, perhaps accompanied with hail, and could merge to bring longer spells of rain. Some sleet or snow is also possible over places like northern England and Scotland. 

This time period is also where the wind starts to become an issue. The wind will start to gradually ramp up during Saturday afternoon, mainly across western England, the NW, and the far north, where the Met Office have warnings in place. 40-60mph gusts on coasts is possible, along with 30-40mph gusts possible inland.

Also, another part of rain from Storm Jorge will start to move in across Ireland and Northern Ireland. This rain could include some heavy bursts. It also has the chance of producing some snow, mainly over higher ground, but there's a tiny chance that you could see the odd snowflake on lower ground. Later in the afternoon, it starts to arrive in NW England and Scotland, where snow accumulations are possible, mainly over higher ground.

The temperatures in the afternoon will gradually start to drop from the cold front that moved in. So the afternoon temperatures in the south should range from 5-9c, and in the north, they should range from 1-6c. Because of the strong, bitter winds, it will feel like a few degrees colder than the actual temperatures.

Saturday evening

On Saturday evening, the rain will still continue over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with some heavy bursts possible, and perhaps with the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling, mainly over higher ground. Later in the evening, some of the bands of rain will also start to crawl into places like northern England, with again some heavy bursts possible, and the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling over higher ground.

Elsewhere, showers will continue over parts of Wales and southern England. The showers will be more frequent in the SW. These showers are most likely to die out or lose their intensity when it comes in contact with land due to the lower temperatures on the land. However, if you catch a shower, it still could be heavy, with hail mixed in and the showers could merge into longer spells of rain.

It still could be a windy evening across the north and north west, with some strong wind gusts possible, perhaps not as strong as they were in the afternoon.

The temperatures won't drop too much from the afternoon onwards, with temperatures in the south ranging from 3-7c, and ranging from 0-5c in the north. Along with the strong wind gusts, it will feel a lot colder than the actual temperatures.

Enjoy your Saturday! 

(I'm gonna do more of these as I enjoy making these when I'm bored!)

[Zak M]

The GEM 12z is showing something... 

[Atmogenic]

Happy to finally see those oranges and even reds in the models, hopefully they verify and march will feel like spring 

[CheesepuffScott]

Long shot in the modelling world but Day 10+ on GFS looks great if you're after warmer, drier, calmer, spring-like weather. Mid to high teens widely across the country, any rain confined to N/NW Scotland.

Temperature:

Pressure:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still trend for much better weather around 10th, but hope won't downgrade, the settled spell that is, this chart too good to be true though

[IDO]

The GFS op still consistent with the anomalous heights close to the UK and it has dragged most of its members in that direction, op:

Pressure>

That is a solid trend. Temps vary due to the exact location of the core heights but both the control and op now hinting at some high uppers with support:

Early days to be confident of either the solution or some very mild weather. With the Feb CET likely to be around 2.7c above average another warm month would not be going against the grain, although the first week of March may be slightly cooler than average.

The ECM model is still not on board though I get the impression it is moving ever so slightly in that direction. GEM is not on board either. So still low confidence in the GFS solution post D8.

The next 7-days a relenting of the rain intensity for most:

  

Chilly feeling week ahead with some frosts as we get three mini-ridges moving through (ECM agrees) after Jorge moves away.

[BlueHedgehog074]

@Zak M That was a very interesting and informative post regarding these next couple of days. Well put. Thank you.

In fact, even this morning there’s quite a lot of great posts (although we have generally be pleased with the quality of the posting in here, despite how this Winter has behaved).

As much as I would love to still see a good snowfall - the models for the next few days continuing with its chilly and unsettled theme with a possible wintry mix at times - it would be nice just to see things dry out. And have that dude, the Azores High, come to the rescue and bring something warmer, too.

[Dorsetbred]

9 hours ago, Zak M said:

Storm Jorge is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain today.

Saturday morning

On Saturday morning, bands of persistent rain will be present across Wales, SW England, and some parts of northern England and Scotland. This band of rain will include some heavy bursts. The main problem is that it has been a very wet February this year and this rain is falling over saturated ground, so it's not good news - especially for the areas that have been affected or have almost been affected by flooding. Parts of eastern England won't see this band of rain until 6:00.

Also, within the band of heavy, persistent rain, some squally winds will form within. This could cause some strong wind gusts for a short period of time and very heavy rainfall for a short period of time. In Northern Ireland, the band of rain should have passed through in the very late hours of Friday and perhaps the early hours of Saturday.

It will be quite a mild morning across the British Isles, with temperatures in the south ranging from 8-12c, and ranging from 5-11c in the north. The band of rain that will be sweeping through is a cold front and places like Northern Ireland that the heavy rain has already passed over will bring colder temperatures and a chillier morning than most parts of the British Isles.

Saturday afternoon

On Saturday afternoon, the band of rain that is supposed to pass through the British Isles would have cleared now, meaning that the cold front will bring colder air to the UK. Over the hills of Scotland, where some parts of the rain clear, some sleet or snow is possible. 

Along with the colder air, showers will start to dig in from the west. These showers could be heavy, perhaps accompanied with hail, and could merge to bring longer spells of rain. Some sleet or snow is also possible over places like northern England and Scotland. 

This time period is also where the wind starts to become an issue. The wind will start to gradually ramp up during Saturday afternoon, mainly across western England, the NW, and the far north, where the Met Office have warnings in place. 40-60mph gusts on coasts is possible, along with 30-40mph gusts possible inland.

Also, another part of rain from Storm Jorge will start to move in across Ireland and Northern Ireland. This rain could include some heavy bursts. It also has the chance of producing some snow, mainly over higher ground, but there's a tiny chance that you could see the odd snowflake on lower ground. Later in the afternoon, it starts to arrive in NW England and Scotland, where snow accumulations are possible, mainly over higher ground.

The temperatures in the afternoon will gradually start to drop from the cold front that moved in. So the afternoon temperatures in the south should range from 5-9c, and in the north, they should range from 1-6c. Because of the strong, bitter winds, it will feel like a few degrees colder than the actual temperatures.

Saturday evening

On Saturday evening, the rain will still continue over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with some heavy bursts possible, and perhaps with the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling, mainly over higher ground. Later in the evening, some of the bands of rain will also start to crawl into places like northern England, with again some heavy bursts possible, and the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling over higher ground.

Elsewhere, showers will continue over parts of Wales and southern England. The showers will be more frequent in the SW. These showers are most likely to die out or lose their intensity when it comes in contact with land due to the lower temperatures on the land. However, if you catch a shower, it still could be heavy, with hail mixed in and the showers could merge into longer spells of rain.

It still could be a windy evening across the north and north west, with some strong wind gusts possible, perhaps not as strong as they were in the afternoon.

The temperatures won't drop too much from the afternoon onwards, with temperatures in the south ranging from 3-7c, and ranging from 0-5c in the north. Along with the strong wind gusts, it will feel a lot colder than the actual temperatures.

Enjoy your Saturday! 

(I'm gonna do more of these as I enjoy making these when I'm bored!)

Zak, is there a reason why now and 24hour outlooks are posted in here and not the nowcasting thread. We have so often moaned about 10day models, but surely  (as Knocker does with his post) in the short 24hrange we are most nowcasting rather than Model Outlook? The thread looses its focus with posts about rainfall/snowfall for the short range, rather than 3-5 day outlook. 
Mods, as you are the folks that control this, is a today summary a model outlook item, given the Spirit and longstanding ground rules of this thread, if so, I’ll be quiet.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[BlueHedgehog074]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

May I ask to whom do you refer with the "we" above and how are "we" assessing quality?

Hi knocker. It could include people like you. The detailed summaries you do, including both the shorter and longer range. Also you and John Holmes insight into the anomaly charts. Don’t really want to name specific names really, as enjoy all the varying views people offer on this thread, but other examples could include...

Zak M’s and Jordan smith’s detailed short range posts (again, like you). Nick Sussex’s amusing look into the behaviour of shortwaves, Low Pressure and the upstream pattern. The excitement and love from ICE COLD, Feb1991blizzard, Steve Murr, Mr Frost, northwestsnow (and other snow weather fans) updates of cold weather in the charts. And the way they could light up like a big candle when models throw out snowmagedon outlooks (meant in a good way and I appreciate some of those people love the warmer weather too). Then you’ve got Man With Beard and mb018538 with their focus on the ECMWF clusters and the direction they’re taking. Mike Poole, Nick F and IDO with their objective viewpoints of the models generally in the medium and longer range. And to be fair, you do provide objective analysis in your summaries too. Shaky and his funny reactions when some snow pops up. Frosty/Jon Snow’s snippets of cold, snowy, dry or hot weather in both the closer and FI zone of the charts. Bluarmy’s useful hints of the extended ensembles. And to sorta bring it all together, MattWolves humour and ‘trying to keep everyone’s toys in the pram’ approach. But also enjoy the comical views from the likes of Allseasons-si with his/her rather in-depth posts. And then tight isobar, who adds an interesting flavour to the model thread.

Other mentions could include mushymanrob, where he could try injecting realism to the thread when the excitement of certain weather types in here gets too high. The are other examples too that I’m sure I’ve forgotten and, again, sorry for anyone that’s been missed out.

Basically, quality for me would be posts that provide an interesting viewpoint of the models and where I can learn things from. Generally posts that offer quite a good amount of detail (but on a personal level, like to read a varied mix of posts both long and short as longs as it’s about the models). Not everyone I know will agree with the above and some of this is just my subjective viewpoints really. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Few changes and adding bit more

[Tim Bland]

Still a chance of some snow in the south on Monday morning. Temps look similar to those on Thursday so perhaps similar areas affected? Snow on high ground eg chilterns and sleet low down? 

[Zak M]

The latest GFS run is still suggesting some warmth coming from high pressure dominating the UK on day 12 onwards!

Day 12: 

Day 13: 

Day 14: 

Day 15: 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Zak M

[IDO]

Again another settled FI run from the GFS:

Also another with some very warm uppers and mild temps, a snapshot:

Looking lovely Springlike spell if it verifies.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hold your horses there!! Before we all start ordering our beach towels and sun cream from amazon, there are other options on those 6z ensembles!! It ain't over till I say so folks...

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Zak, is there a reason why now and 24hour outlooks are posted in here and not the nowcasting thread. We have so often moaned about 10day models, but surely  (as Knocker does with his post) in the short 24hrange we are most nowcasting rather than Model Outlook? The thread looses its focus with posts about rainfall/snowfall for the short range, rather than 3-5 day outlook. 
Mods, as you are the folks that control this, is a today summary a model outlook item, given the Spirit and longstanding ground rules of this thread, if so, I’ll be quiet.

You have a point but maybe the new folk who are trying to understand what the models show will find this type of post a real help in their understanding. It is after all the model thread? Just my take on things.

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, johnholmes said:

You have a point but maybe the new folk who are trying to understand what the models show will find this type of post a real help in their understanding. It is after all the model thread? Just my take on things.

Fair point, I think then @Knocker get your indepth posts back in here, for all to share the knowledge..

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hold your horses there!! Before we all start ordering our beach towels and sun cream from amazon, there are other options on those 6z ensembles!! It ain't over till I say so folks...

 

That just makes my March CET guess more difficult! 

[johnholmes]

The 500 mb anomaly charts

Certainly changes showing on all 3 that suggest there may be a decrease in the number of deep surface lows and thus rainfall totals. Not entirely clear on this as the atlantic flow is still predicted to remain quite strong. All 3 do not show a signal for marked warmth for the uk though!  2 suggest a trough into Europe with building heights in the atlantic, one (ec) seems a bit less keen on this. Only noaa appears to have the idea of some significant height build that could lead to a real reduction in the number of deepish lows and largish rainfall totals of the past few weeks?

Time, as always, may show a clearer picture.

I’ll keep watching and pop another set of maps up in 3-4 days!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Methuselah]

Best outlook for a very long while, methinks: all the way from Day 10

    

and through to Day 10:

   

Which, I think, begs the question: will it materialise?

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Still a chance of some snow in the south on Monday morning. Temps look similar to those on Thursday so perhaps similar areas affected? Snow on high ground eg chilterns and sleet low down? 

Euro4 & Hirlam etc also showing snow for the south / south east on Monday morning. 

[Zak M]

If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Zak M said:

If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

Or you could name it Slushfest 100 of the last decade V Snowfests hardly any (about 5)

[PiscesStar]

28 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

I hope it bloody doesn't as on the east kent coast we saw absolutely nothing but rain 

[Zak M]

The GEM over the last few runs has been showing a band of rain turning into snow on day 5.

No other models show this so it most likely won't verify.

Imagine if this did verify - what an end to winter that would be!

[Ols500]

55 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

I hope it bloody doesn't as on the east kent coast we saw absolutely nothing but rain 

lol just go to a hill to find snow