Model output discussion 02/02/20

[SLEETY]

Wow another BFTE in spring again. 

Let's hope the control is the trend setter. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Scandy high / southerly tracking jet evident on the 00zs ...

Quelle suprise now winter is over.

Watch those wretched blues and purples vanish to our NW just in time for spring.

 

[knocker]

12 hours ago, Newberryone said:

These charts are enough to send the vast majority of coldies on this forum into hibernation till Nov

This winter just keeps on giving

[mountain shadow]

Wet and miserable ECM 12z.

Spring on hold.

[winterof79]

144z shows how clueless ECM is compared with UKMO Gfs and Icon, ha

It has no low developed to our south

Edited February 28, 2020 by winterof79

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

This winter just keeps on giving

You missed out this part

....more and more rain....

 

[Frosty.]

Day 10 ECM 0z operational..nae bad!

 

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You missed out this part

....more and more rain....

 

May I refer the honorable member for Irlam to the other mod thread where wind and rain are generally covered in more detail rather than an obsession with flakes. Talking of which......................................................

Edited February 28, 2020 by knocker

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

May I refer the honorable member for Irlam to the other mod thread where wind and rain are generally covered in more detail rather than an obsession with flakes. Talking of which......................................................

It has got to that stage I rather have nothing falling out of the sky.

Hopefully GFS has picked up at least a drier interlude during second week of March

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Day 10 ECM 0z operational..nae bad!

 

9th March on that chart....we're starting to get towards that time where the cold has to be quite intense to get any wintriness. Looking fairly chilly next week though.

[Methuselah]

Crikey, today's GFS 00Z operational run has some 'amazing' charts in it! Notwithstanding yesterday's potential Blast From The North, the building heat, down southeast also looks rather impressive, for the time of year!

All far too 'up in the air' for me to attempt a silly forecast, but we could be in for a spring of extreme temperature-swings?

T+240:     

[Methuselah]

Just like last Wednesday, next week might also get 'interesting'...Slush Wednesday?

    

[shaky]

Gfs 06z still plenty of opportunities for snow over the next 10 days!!ecm might join the party later!you can see it has joined the ukmo and gfs earlier in the run up to 120 hours but then implodes later on!!think it might be playing catch up!!

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Just like last Wednesday, next week might also get 'interesting'...Slush Wednesday?

 

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

[mb018538]

Finally a light at the end of the tunnel?

12 days away, but....could we see high pressure building in? By no means certain, as the Atlantic still looks active at this point:



Looking much less potent by day 15, and with plenty of oranges and reds around the UK, you'd hope the wind and rain will ease as we head towards Mid-March:

[Nick F]

Both 00z EPS and GEFS H500 mean indicating building heights from the SW across northern Europe days 10-15, as troughing over northern Europe weakens and breaks down day 10 onwards. Whether this a growing trend or a false lead, like some recent drying-out hopes from models at range dashed, remains to be seen. We all could do with a respite from theses prolonged unsettled conditions. 

00z EPS days 10-15

00z GEFS dsys 10-15

And if ridging does build NE, there is the question of where high pressure will build at the surface, quite a chunk of EPS members have low pressure over southern Europe (result of the breakdown of the N European trough) and high pressure building over northern Europe, while some members cluster around ridging over western Europe or troughing persisting over northern Europe.

06z GFS further adding fuel to the idea of a drier high pressure dominated spell developing from next weekend.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Nick F

[IDO]

Consistency from the GFS up to D10. D8 looks like HP building in:

So maybe 3-5 days of settled weather from next weekend, which will be a nice change. Low heights over Iberia the trigger. Of course, the ECM going the slower route towards higher pressure.

GFS D11: 

Could see some milder temps as well as settled.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

Boring? It's fantastic! But I would say that, wouldn't I?: I work on a farm!

    

2012: 

Edited February 28, 2020 by General Cluster

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure!

I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now. 

[nick sussex]

The synoptics on the face of it look interesting but there’s not enough cold on tap at present to deliver much .

The low next week might look good but looks like a rainmaker at present .

You’d need a better injection of cold before it arrives . As the system looks quite shallow evaporative cooling might help but still at present it looks like mostly rain .

Let’s see if the GEFS have some colder solutions .

 

[Methuselah]

Aye, a possible 5-/7-day spell of warmth and sunshine...let the drying-out process begin?

    

But, from an historic perspective, coldies needn't despair...1978:

April 4th:  11th: 

Edit: Just to clarify: I wasn't attempting a 'silly forecast', I was merely attempting to show that, just because, on a particular day, an anticyclone sits slap, bang over the UK, it doesn't necessarily follow that it'll still be there...one week later.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by General Cluster

[Downpour]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

This winter just keeps on giving

In what respect? Utterly wet and miserable from November to March? Some gift. 

[PiscesStar]

30 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, a possible 5-/7-day spell of warmth and sunshine...let the drying-out process begin?

    

But, from an historic perspective, coldies needn't despair...1978:

April 4th:  11th: 

 

But that last frame isn't happening is it. High pressure just sits over us 

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

By boring, do you mean, warm(ish), sunny and dry under high pressure? Because that's what that chart shows. 

What is boring is the endless rains. A welcome break from the current pattern is the opposite of dull. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure!

I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now. 

Yes, there are no ensemble GEFS runs that give that now right out past D10 and only about 3 even in FI.