Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Weegaz]

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

Woooaahh didnt expect that!!was there a few days ago but i thought got dropped since!!

[feb1991blizzard]

This is going to be a stonker in a minute.

[nick sussex]

Although we see that high over Scandi in the UKMO and ICON outputs  , it’s the ultimate tease because the upstream pattern refuses to play ball.

So we see some very cold uppers to the ne just sitting there waving at us !

Very frustrating but at the moment it looks like close but no cigar . We’d need a large correction west and at day 6 that’s hard to imagine .

 

[Methuselah]

1076mb! The GFS is having a giraffe?

    

And if these verify, I'm the King of Spain!

    

Edited February 27, 2020 by General Cluster

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is going to be a stonker in a minute.

Here we go,more chance of this happening at this time of the year.

[Zak M]

Hey all!

I'm in a very happy mood today, and I was buzzing this morning. I received my first snowfall of this winter!!! 

It was snowing here for about 2 hours, and all the snow melted two hours later.

Anyway, back on topic.

I decided to look for something wintry in the GFS 12z. A band of rain on Saturday (which is from Storm Jorge) might contain some snow in the SW behind the band of rain. How much snow it will produce is uncertain at the moment. 

And how amazing is this - this looks like almost the exact same event that happened today, except that the snow is a bit further NW!

And lastly, if there are people here who are now after warm and settled weather, then I gotchu 

Enjoy your evening! 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Although we see that high over Scandi in the UKMO and ICON outputs  , it’s the ultimate tease because the upstream pattern refuses to play ball.

So we see some very cold uppers to the ne just sitting there waving at us !

Very frustrating but at the moment it looks like close but no cigar . We’d need a large correction west and at day 6 that’s hard to imagine .

 

Yes - ship sailed now - i am more looking at the prospects of a Greeny in FI -something like these uppers with a developing wave in the flow will suit me fine.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

1074mb! The GFS is having a giraffe?

    

Where is that!

JFF ,this is more like it.

trend setter

[Northwest NI]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - ship sailed now - i am more looking at the prospects of a Greeny in FI -something like these uppers with a developing wave in the flow will suit me fine.

Iceland would be getting it rough there. I am thinking of going there again soon....

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Iceland would be getting it rough there. I am thinking of going there again soon....

You don't want to go then if that came off - save your iceland for when its crap here - that would be a stonker for Northern Ireland - and particularly for your part, massively exposed to a Northerly plus inshore waters - streamers galore.

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

1076mb! The GFS is having a giraffe?

    

And if these verify, I'm the King of Spain!

    

You have to treat pressure charts over the Greenland region with a huge pinch of salt especially when you have purples over the area.

This is a true Greenland high

 

[Newberryone]

46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the earlier GEFS 6z mean as we head towards mid March is again looking more settled / benign which I’m sure would be welcomed following all the flooding this winter!!!

These charts are enough to send the vast majority of coldies on this forum into hibernation till Nov

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs ens mean is showing some sort of Scandi high here with trough disruption over the UK at just 144 hrs

like i said earlier,a few tweaks west could turn out to be something special.

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

I think the Euro4 must have lost the plot here. Every other high res model has rain apart from highest part of pennines and north York moors etc tomorrow?

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

2 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

Interesting to see all that snow streaming into west Wales especially with the gales or severe gales that's also forecast

[Don]

3 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

Oh gawd, not again!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What a bizarre set of ens from the GFS and ECM 12s. The GFS op going much colder than the mean towards the end of the run, with the ECM op going quite a bit warmer than its mean!! Which one is the weakest link!!! 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Mattwolves

[snowking]

4 hours ago, Weegaz said:

I would have thought this would have stirred some interest in here. Euro4 showing wintery precipitation through tomorrow as front approaches from the west.

Saturday is of interest on the Emerald Isle.

Yeah when you take a look at the 950mb temperature profile:

there would probably be quite a significant melt layer, so away from higher ground I suspect it has gone slightly rogue, although similar shown on Meteociel too with Dew Points around 0-2c

[Allseasons-Si]

Hello

where are we going here?

the latest met office has lows running central/south of the UK in there text forecast

this from this afternoons text:-

There may be occasional spells of more prolonged, heavier rainfall and hill snow, particularly in central and southern areas.

this to me has more of the same theme as we have had this week

the hp cell over Scandi has been showing up in the models over the last couple of days and what this does is force trough's/low pressure se through the UK,this is going to be an interesting few days to see if this manifests.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think si the GFS is driving me round the bend now, it doesn't seem to know what to do next... It will be flagging up some beach weather next... Oh hang on a sec......

But even with this sceanrio, just look at the fidgid uppers to the NW.... bring me some thundersnow...

[nick sussex]

The GFS control run looks interesting !

So close to getting that deep cold pool into the UK.

[snowray]

Anyone spotted the mad, mad, mad control run!

 

Indeed Nick......

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Talk about 2 runs been different on extreme ends lol

GFS 12z(left) versus GFS 18z(right) at 384hr last frames

 

Which do I want mmm????? 

[snowray]

Outlier alright!