Model output discussion 02/02/20

[nick sussex]

The shortwave nw of Scotland is now edging se and not phasing with the upstream troughing !

Edited February 26, 2020 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

This is looking interesting though - trigger low 100's of miles further South than on 12z

 

[Tim Bland]

@BeanzWhat are you referring to when you say ‘Meto’?  This is the forecast for east of England published on the Met Office official website at 330pm. This is written by senior forecasters who view all the available output (more than we can see). 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Beanz]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Just not cold enough at the end of the day?!

I think thats exactly it unfortunately 

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is looking interesting though - trigger low 100's of miles further South than on 12z

 

The models seem to alternate between phasing that with the trough or trying to edge it se .

 

[Beanz]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

@BeanzWhat are you referring to when you say ‘Meto’?  This is the forecast for east of England published on the Met Office official website at 330pm. This is written by senior forecasters who view all the available output (more than we can see). 

I was referring to their video forecast, rather than the written not that it makes much difference.  In essence it amounts to the same, the source input is the same just in a more colourful output.  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The models seem to alternate between phasing that with the trough or trying to edge it se .

 

I was thinking for one minute we were going to hit the jackpot and it make it right down the spine of the country, looks to me like it just fills and the PPN fizzles out although gives a good dumping for the borders first, we really need it to completely separate from the troughing to the North it looks like to me and become a normal low rather than a shortwave embedded within the longwave trough.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

What are you referring to when you say ‘Meto’?  This is the forecast for east of England published on the Met Office official website at 330pm. This is written by senior forecasters who view all the available output (more than we can see). 

Not saying either way, but we know when snow is forecast the nearer to T0 the more accurate the forecast, That was possibly based on the 06z with updated data from the 12z. The 18z should in theory be more accurate. Watching the MetOffice videos it changes every hour but it doesn't look too intensive on the more recent charts. 

Hopefully those over 150m will see some white stuff in the hot zone. Us in the Surrey area look like missing out on anything again. Funny enough my app was showing snow for tomorrow morning before 4pm but has since updated to rain only which ties in with the downgrades.

In any case the news story is more likely rain and wind for the weekend and the GFS is again very stormy:

Gusts>

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I was referring to their video forecast, rather than the written not that it makes much difference.  In essence it amounts to the same, the source input is the same just in a more colourful output.  

Oh, ok. I’m just confused as to where the ‘downgrade from meto ‘ comment has come from? From what I can see they have been consistent since this morning with sleet and snow (M4 to Birmingham) accumulating over high ground and melting by lunchtime 

[Lampostwatcher]

It's a M4 north event imo always has been even the warnings say so 

 

[tight isobar]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is looking interesting though - trigger low 100's of miles further South than on 12z

 

That 18z 2nd of march snap...is a real dream start chart!!! Early march....or not!!!

[tight isobar]

I'm going to the radar....it's down to the wire now...and a suprise or two is firmly on the cards here!!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

That 18z 2nd of march snap...is a real dream start chart!!! Early march....or not!!!

Its certainly got potential.

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

It's a M4 north event imo always has been even the warnings say so 

 

Said this before on numerous occasions,  but east of Chieveley services, any snow events will be north of the M40 due to the Chilterns. So many times I've seen wet weather pass over me only to turn to snow as they hit the Chilterns

[Beanz]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oh, ok. I’m just confused as to where the ‘downgrade from meto ‘ comment has come from? From what I can see they have been consistent since this morning with sleet and snow (M4 to Birmingham) accumulating over high ground and melting by lunchtime 

@IDOexplained in a much more eloquent manner than I did (thanks ).  The downgrade I was referring to was from their (METO) forecast (on the app) which at around 6am this morning showed heavy snow for Thurs c.10am-midday IMBY (about 5 miles north of yours by the looks of it).  By midday, and now referring to the app, website and video, it had downgraded to sleet IMBY and pretty much everywhere in the area I mentioned earlier.  

Either way, we can still keep fingers crossed for last min upgrades in real time!  

[feb1991blizzard]

Not as cold as it would be in Jan but certainly not mild at surface either.

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite a few Easterlies on the GEFS - a few are actually meaningful  like this as well.

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, Ramp said:

Come on!!!!

 

Somebody had too

The song is Eileen, not Ellen 

[tight isobar]

Tonight's front certainly appears to be on a southerly slant now...via all radars...here's netweathers

 

own as a snap!!!!... The energy as per wants to filter through the chanel..

Edited February 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mizzle]

Lamppost watching was a non-starter imby so I've been watching the 00z GFS runs: and to my still learning eyes, March looks to be opening with some eventful weather. Is that Storm Ellen I spy? With a couple of channel lows in the following days? 

#BeKind

 

[SMU]

UKMO & GEM very interesting overnight...

[PiscesStar]

54 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Lamppost watching was a non-starter imby so I've been watching the 00z GFS runs: and to my still learning eyes, March looks to be opening with some eventful weather. Is that Storm Ellen I spy? With a couple of channel lows in the following days? 

#BeKind

 

There is a major storm shown for the 29th...quite right... We are ALL learning even those that think they know it all., in reality, do NOT. Anyways back to my idea that in the large teapot, March has delivered some pretty potent cold spells even though if course, meteologically speaking it is a spring month!! Think we will see some more snowy synoptic for this month unfold the way things are presenting themselves On gfs and other models. 

[PiscesStar]

54 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Lamppost watching was a non-starter imby so I've been watching the 00z GFS runs: and to my still learning eyes, March looks to be opening with some eventful weather. Is that Storm Ellen I spy? With a couple of channel lows in the following days? 

#BeKind

 

There is a major storm shown for the 29th...quite right... We are ALL learning even those that think they know it all., in reality, do NOT. Anyways back to my idea that in the large teapot, March has delivered some pretty potent cold spells even though if course, meteologically speaking it is a spring month!! Think we will see some more snowy synoptic for this month unfold the way things are presenting themselves On gfs and other models. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO & GEM very interesting overnight...

 

Add in ECM

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Add in ECM

And not in lala land! Just need some colder air over us compared with today for these low to engage with.