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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
13 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

100% nick...was always a nowcaster this 1..and there WILL be surprises!!!!

Oxymoron forecast of the week ??

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Feb . This is a good link . You can get all ECM ops and all of its ensemble members . Loads of parameters to choose from including snow accumulations .

Just go to weather.us

 

Oh right - yes i know that one - problem is they are massively exaggerated, i have seen 4-6 inches countless times over my location at T24 or T48 in the last 2 or 3 years on that site on the ECM, in reality it has only come true once and that was accumulated over the course of 2 days during the 2018 Easterly, Nick L always used to post up the proper charts he gets via his Job and they were always much less.

Thanks anyway though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh right - yes i know that one - problem is they are massively exaggerated, i have seen 4-6 inches countless times over my location at T24 or T48 in the last 2 or 3 years on that site on the ECM, in reality it has only come true once and that was accumulated over the course of 2 days during the 2018 Easterly, Nick L always used to post up the proper charts he gets via his Job and they were always much less.

Thanks anyway though.

To be honest Feb I take any precip forecast with a huge pinch of salt . And with this type of set up even more so . 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Oxymoron forecast of the week ??

Show me where I have ever been contradictory in this!????

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, nick sussex said:

To be honest Feb I take any precip forecast with a huge pinch of salt . And with this type of set up even more so . 

Quite- because you cannot possibly predict where the low will track to the nearest mile, so specific location accumulation forecasts are in chocolate fireguard territory due to the area of highest PPN intensity being out and add in marginality and your really ferked in terms of accurate predictions, i usually go on what usually happens in my location under a specific setup and lately these PPN charts in these polar NW flows have always over estimated snow for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The Icon 18 hrs run is already wrong with the extent of the precip !

Current radar returns have the precip already heavier and further north than its forecast .

That doesn’t necessarily mean the low is further north , the extent of precip from this type of low isn’t an exact science .

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Icon 18 hrs run is already wrong with the extent of the precip !

Current radar returns have the precip already heavier and further north than its forecast .

That doesn’t necessarily mean the low is further north , the extent of precip from this type of low isn’t an exact science .

Hmmm so if the band is already further north compared to where it should be shouldnt that mean the low is slightly further north as well then?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, shaky said:

Hmmm so if the band is already further north compared to where it should be shouldnt that mean the low is slightly further north as well then?

No not necessarily. The arc of precip associated with the low could be the issue. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Show me where I have ever been contradictory in this!????

In your last post... 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

Its certainly showing some interesting accum.  I think I buy into the precip though.  

 

1884034587_Screenshot2020-02-26at21_23_54.thumb.png.3ad885b6842b0fbefae45dcd13e3c7c0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

Well, I will be driving straight into that tomorrow morning.  Sorry snow, if you ain't coming to me, I'm coming to you! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The GEM certainly highlights some areas of interest:

gem.png

gem0.png

gem1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

The GEM certainly highlights some areas of interest:

gem.png

gem0.png

gem1.png

Slightly better for those south of the M4, too.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the extent of precip into Ireland . The 12hrs Hirlam is closer to current radar returns than either the ICON 18 hrs or GFS12 hrs runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The 18Z HIRLAM has done away with a lot of the wintriness compared to the 12Z

Has that updated already . I can only see the 12 hrs run.

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

I think there is a chance of evaporative cooling on this system in a few places. Be prepared for surprises. Models dont pick up on this very well unfortunately. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

                                12Z                                                        18Z

overview_20200226_12_018.thumb.jpg.225c0325f6bebb5cd35c0acdbb1d13ff.jpg overview_20200226_18_012.thumb.jpg.bf81ff38e2fbd6f1421a135e1088221f.jpg
Of course, usual caveats apply in regards to precip-type charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

                                12Z                                                        18Z

overview_20200226_12_018.thumb.jpg.225c0325f6bebb5cd35c0acdbb1d13ff.jpg overview_20200226_18_012.thumb.jpg.bf81ff38e2fbd6f1421a135e1088221f.jpg
Of course, usual caveats apply in regards to precip-type charts.

Hmm, the 18z is a bit of a killjoy!  Not to say 12z is wrong but theoretically the 18z should be closer to the mark given the time frame?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)

18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today.  They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.  

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, Beanz said:

18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today.  They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.  

 

 

Just not cold enough at the end of the day?!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

18z GFS says little or no lying snow anywhere south of my location apart from Wales.

image.thumb.png.10ad6246cb69f6a20ce206ded8ac4618.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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