Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

If you listen carefully Nick, you'll hear the sound of laptops being slammed shut all across the south of England 

Dont worry jokes aside i think us midlanders will be doing that by tomorrow morning!!i still think that it will be shunted further south!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

If you listen carefully Nick, you'll hear the sound of laptops being slammed shut all across the south of England 

Or breaking glass as they fly through windows!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If there is something that I remember about the GFS and lows scooting through the channel, it corrects them South right down to the last minute.

The more corrections south the more colder air entrenched over the UK,then we start over again with this fiasco when another low comes in.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Back to the pub run and it's bringing in a brief northerly at 210 - certainly different from the 12z if nothing else.

image.thumb.png.500414b84095e08a02b91d0039ad2d03.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better 18z - this looks like a good run - watch this now!

image.thumb.png.e89ad4a82b5b4670406db6a631fe1f22.png

going similar to what the control runs have been churning out for the last few days,in fact,it's better than the last run from the control 12z

going to be a stonker this run.

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

going similar to what the control runs have been churning out for the last few days.

Only problem though, the very cold air has been shunted away now, that could really have delivered if there was the cold pool to the North there has been on previous runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem though, the very cold air has been shunted away now, that could really have delivered if there was the cold pool to the North there has been on previous runs.

WAIT!!!

watch that feature north of Scotland at day ten back build west/southwest as the high amplifies NE.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.38a206ddbc8b79313daaad292c20308d.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

The GFS 18hrs run is a good example of how even an angry looking PV needn’t stop cold .

The orientation of that allows the ridge to build ne . You do need a retrogression signal eventually though to keep the cold but getting to the cold in the first place isn’t stopped by the PV

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

This is a better run and fits in with some of the 12z ens suits,we have a Genoa low forming to prop the high up,I AM LOOKING FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS.

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.f369ac7865d17c813e67997d532d3348.pnggfsnh-1-264.thumb.png.12a747e9d1653e5433050a1a0d890acd.png

although the uppers are not great but subject to change nearer the time if this scenario holds.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

Surely someone has access to the 18 hour run on this forum!!cmon come out come out wherever you are!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

There's no need to shed any more light on the channel low, Nick, it is pining for the fiords.    

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

The GFS 18hrs run is a good example of how even an angry looking PV needn’t stop cold .

The orientation of that allows the ridge to build ne . You do need a retrogression signal eventually though to keep the cold but getting to the cold in the first place isn’t stopped by the PV

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Surely someone has access to the 18 hour run on this forum!!cmon come out come out wherever you are!!!

It's behind paywall if my memory serves,i think it's every 6 hour intervals.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

There's no need to shed any more light on the channel low, Nick, it is pining for the fiords.    

The low has turned into one of those z list celebs ! You know loves all the adulation and press coverage but won’t be happy when model watchers then turn on it ! 

I think because the colder air then tucks into the nw part of the low as it clears then I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few surprises thrown up .

I certainly wouldn’t be viewing those precip forecasts as set in stone . 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs 18z has corrected this scenario a good few hundred miles west on the eastern flank of the high from it's 12z run and it is a matter of time that whilst we see this hp cell migrate west then a trough will drop from the north,great run this and watch it grow over the next few runs,we hope.

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.eeb51783ce9e468de628c1d58c9ce770.png

this high is propped and primed for a pattern change,watch this space.

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Bit of a downgrade on the 18z extended GEFS suite im afraid, not tragic but was hoping for those more potent runs to become more numerous.

image.thumb.png.4a361565fc07856bd6b516b6e45faa6f.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Or those southern counties south of the M8:

GFS snow depth T168:

image.thumb.jpg.c725bce3e18844e1a793d2cee54837e3.jpg

 

Not sure what the snow depths for t168 have to do with Thursday (t48) ??‍♂️ here’s the relevant depths for then ...

079C8E69-52B7-467C-99E1-EAB7149BE5EF.png

1B80A1C4-FFDC-4540-B743-485538A1C7F5.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bit of a downgrade on the 18z extended GEFS suite im afraid, not tragic but was hoping for those more potent runs to become more numerous.

image.thumb.png.4a361565fc07856bd6b516b6e45faa6f.png

Ya having a laugh right?? .. The mean drops to it's lowest point that I can recall this season... And it's ample...the spreads then begin dictate on the mean.  And the member splits shout....another belt of drop line clustering...in near suites...March or not.....it's gun ho! 500z through suite lounges also are of big note......the fat lady isn't singing...the far bloke belly flopping is!!!!!!..those ens are classic pass down..with a batch of member followers!

Screenshot_20200226-012116.png

MT8_London_ens (11).png

Screenshot_20200226-012956.png

Edited by tight isobar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Without any notable \established blocking  these are the next best formats to view.......and "speakable" is the tyre tread is there for an evolutionary switch to a more relaxed atmosphere state to allow a short\high blocking scenario.....it's turning on a knifes edge...without doubt...winter weather has it's eyes on what we want as......spring!!!.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_1.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_2.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning still a significant margin for tomorrow low

GFS ENTRY point southern Ire > ECM about 50-75 miles further South > location of 0c isotherm crucial

SE contingent rooting for ECM > those on the cut off further north rooting for ECM

C99ED03B-61BC-4A43-A8A4-AC21F2B20544.thumb.png.b00dc92f175cc6b0501bad01d057199e.pngEE78AD5C-9377-4993-BC0A-D652CCAF8F3D.thumb.png.ee83d168ce2d40f63a51880a19d98131.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Very nice UKMO this morning with a slither of heights building to the north of the UK, gfs was showing this a few days ago then dropped the idea to an extent, ecm totally different but well go with the UKMO

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-13.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some good news, perhaps: by T+327, things look like drying out? From then on in, the famous ignorance-potential correlation kicks in...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Gfs still pushing for snowy Thursday. E281066A-8EB9-4D2E-8C3E-8004749148D1.thumb.png.8cd8826e7864500b61338301b4a7bb76.pngECCE67B4-81EC-4462-B237-F69E7B872D68.thumb.png.1a0029b32bb9fd00cc37dd798fdbccb8.pngB45FE995-E56B-4DEA-9842-93577BD66EF9.thumb.png.39b999d02e232c9938918db788f0c34e.png

And the BBC has got snow over my location to now . ??CED85E24-77E3-4854-9F13-981CA80B3F04.thumb.png.70c81f3fbb4ff13560cf48a4f738448d.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...