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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The NMM-WRF keeps the dream alive for the south and south east on Thursday!!

image.thumb.png.40ebd0c30ffdf69405bcb75165755408.pngimage.thumb.png.0e86e49e2b8e920ce37fb6e21c76db5e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - another step in the right direction, anyone else starting to get more interested in the bigger prize in the second half of March rather than the scraps of the plate in a pizza hut over the next few days?

In a word, yes.  There's enough frigid air around at the moment that IF we could tap into it, there's still time for some proper winter weather.  I'm giving it another few weeks then it's time to move to the dark side of wishing for warm weather! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

In a word, yes.  There's enough frigid air around at the moment that IF we could tap into it, there's still time for some proper winter weather.  I'm giving it another few weeks then it's time to move to the dark side of wishing for warm weather! 

I will never do that - well below average temps with very high precipitation all year around for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, snowrye said:

Another non snow event for anyone below the m4 lol

was thinking other way, non event those of us N of M4

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The 12z HIRLAM:

anim_ryi9.gif

Or to sum this up cumulative snow to T48:

image.thumb.jpg.82fbbc40f8dd28bbb9f1c9fa1433c38f.jpg

I like the HIRLAM for two reasons, first it is a good short term model for precipitation. In my opinion, but second, it only runs to T48 so if we're talking about it we must de facto be in with a shout, the reason I post it is that there is some snow interest at short range, within 48 hrs, modest interest  but the interest is there.  And it would be the first time this winter for many, just days before the curtain falls...and the snowy spring season begins - well just hoping for a last, well only, snow fix before the warm season...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh no!.....

image.thumb.jpg.76e0acc7e481ef98ac10e995bc040a2e.jpg

ECM T96, looks awful.

Give it time . Some of the GEFS looked similar and found some nice wedges later .

I gave it time and it’s not upto much ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

No wedges...more rain.

 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Struggling to know what to to make of the ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.8d9a3977e882ef2b34471f17b261b625.jpg

Starfish?

No. Interesting perspective on a kitten trying to catch an ice cube?    Maybe.

Pinch of salt, to be honest.  And that includes the weather shown by the model!  Obviously.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Struggling to know what to to make of the ECM T240:

 

Starfish?

No. Interesting perspective on a kitten trying to catch an ice cube?  

Pinch of salt, to be honest.  And that includes the weather shown by the model!  Obviously.

Looks like it could be heading the way of some of the GEFS with that ridge being thrown up.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like it could be heading the way of some of the GEFS with that ridge being thrown up.

Well we can hope, feb, but for now, I'm wondering about prospects on the 3-6 day timescale.  The news on that is that for the first time ever this winter there are some....for some.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

12Z NAVGEM, despite it’s underwhelming 850 hPa temperatures for cold, goes for the wedge of High Pressure to the North of the UK this weekend, onwards. And Low Pressure sliding down through the UK from the North-West. End up with a slack(ish) flow from the North-West to North-East over most of the UK. 

34CC3C3B-26EB-47D1-B33A-15E5E8A764DA.thumb.png.043771f028be96729b47a30bd6d5793d.pngE22E8D3D-2DC3-498F-A712-518D07531B52.thumb.png.f91481b4e0718b3e63b8d3e935e8fcd3.png234F372E-4A31-4A50-80A4-B41A079C395D.thumb.png.4f6a9e240b9caebb60e454fd57302275.pngDC3FAD84-A4FF-4656-A70E-842C689B930B.thumb.png.f9146c4c365cdd3a6313aed85abe1bff.png
 

Weather would look to settle down a bit with a little mid-Atlantic surface ridge moving into Western UK. More of a slacker less full on mobile pattern compared to the 12Z ECMWF.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

One thing I will say regarding the ECM mean is.... Spring for sure remains on hold.... Long live Winter..... Hale, hale, hale... 

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

newcastle_ecmsd850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

One thing I will say regarding the ECM mean is.... Spring for sure remains on hold.... Long live Winter..... Hale, hale, hale... 

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

newcastle_ecmsd850.png

Remains on hold? Give it a chance - it doesn’t start for 5 days yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Remains on hold? Give it a chance - it doesn’t start for 5 days yet!

Lol , I think it's because some have been talking about it for quite a time. I held my pet rabbit up in the air today, and he predicts.... 6 more weeks of winter.. Going on the ensembles, perhaps a good shout of it remaining on the cold side through early March...

And if your still wandering where all that blocking is.... Here goes...

cfs-0-462.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

So trying to bring myself up to speed with what's been going the past month and now it looks were at the "last chance" for this "winter" regarding snowfall 

Let's see what's happenings in the coming days

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z rolling, here T33:

image.thumb.jpg.d40d299a1fb9de55688f2bceba986f51.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52d462bd8481bfec400f96d1198f6519.jpg

Yes it is headed for the channel, but it just isn't cold enough, T39:

image.thumb.jpg.a9f6529e5e770927867e32a7c662b5c3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9137d44f847a094598f495de39b60c0f.jpg

Not much going to change this now, so on to the next disappointment!

Edit, this showed up on the ECM too, Saturday looks nasty on the ICON, T90:

image.thumb.jpg.255dfc4a1586895aa5e3641acf27533e.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z rolling, here T33:

image.thumb.jpg.d40d299a1fb9de55688f2bceba986f51.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52d462bd8481bfec400f96d1198f6519.jpg

Yes it is headed for the channel, but it just isn't cold enough, T39:

 

Not much going to change this now, so on to the next disappointment!

 

But that is just one model though?  

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

At T33 Don, are you having a giraffe?

Some of the 12z models looked more promising for Thursday, though.  Not that I think you're wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

So out to 36hrs, the pub run has Thursday's low slightly further north and a little deeper than the 12z (18z first):

image.thumb.png.bfd6e00f071c97feb729001d8774f355.pngimage.thumb.png.c1a1d46c064253471e20bfc3452fe15b.png  

As a result, the heavier precip is taken slightly further north

image.thumb.png.31adf92445cf158f7cbf2214c54c8667.png

 

 

Edited by Ice Day
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