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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

WRF a bit further north, (just for fun)

4226AC76-3C39-4DE0-85E2-78C7FB3A1F03.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

 here I think the Arpege is overcooking the low by around 100\150miles too North....but speculation atm...and as again...fun 1 to decipher \watch unfold!...the English chanel is a filter\syphon for these and tends to draw them in\down

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

If this low deepens more then not only will it go further north but it shall cause problems snowfall.wise on the northern end of the low!!precipitation shall be heavier as well!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The good thing at least is it’s now very unlikely the low could miss the UK which sometimes happens and would be just an insult to coldies to add to the crud winter !

The sweet spot for snow still needs to be nailed down and will certainly keep this thread buzzing !

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

If this low deepens more then not only will it go further north but it shall cause problems snowfall.wise on the northern end of the low!!precipitation shall be heavier as well!!

Yep  the control has initially  Only the north of england/ Wales  under snow  the rest rain   Actually most of the ensembles have this evolution  

image.thumb.png.7601bf2da127c6f9ea33f8ffff6ebebf.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You might have no interest in the ECM(The best model) but to say there was no HLB in the output this morning was wrong. 

I would also say the mean you post above shows lows possibly disrupting under a HLB forming to the NE.

That was a wedge not a block per se. They are notorious to predict and they rarely hang around, getting pushed with the general flow. Not one ECM D10 chart with northern heights has verified this winter so are puzzled why this one will? GFS has that wedge migrate faster on the westerly flow so is a non-feature in reality. The ECM mean does the same. The heights to the NE on the mean is the Russian High that has been of no help this winter and that is one thing that we do not want.

I find it hard to be inspired by the next 16-days and Cohen's blog is confident a positive AO remains for that time period so basically more of the same with the odd interlude like this week where the scraps of cold may get some snow to some. Hopefully with the +AO we may see the bulk of the tPV relax in our sector to get a settled spell, but based on the repeating pattern it will not have longevity. No sign of any tropical forcing. Maybe you see it different?

The Cohen blog is quite interesting as he suggests the IOD was not the main reason for the mild winter:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

JMA   hard to tell  where will snow  but you can see the precipitation 

image.thumb.png.decad8d599ab89b7b2f78b392cf0db66.pngimage.thumb.png.c295a7e2a8be015ce191cdf2173abf69.png    

All global models overdo the areas of PPN but particularly the JMA and GFS, it looks like its all one massive band joined up on those but you nearly always get a gap in between lows and the showers where very little PPN occurs, the GFS did it in the Dec 17th / 18th 2010 situation, it had huge areas of heavy snow across most of the country a few days out, in the end the showers affected the North West and the low only affected up to about the West Midlands.

EDIT : always try to think of areas with light or lightly moderate PPN as no PPN or very little and you wont go far wrong.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

1things assured...these charts will take a hammering from tomorrow...@dews\bulbs\winds-humidity.... All important....

Screenshot_20200225-110400.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Some perspective on the GFS snow charts. For today:

15-779UK.thumb.gif.c0c283f3575f66046e35ac309140b898.gif

However, the MetOffice says rain apart from maybe hills (over 200m). Also the low on Thursday AM to clip the south coast with no snow and weekend more intensive rain. They do not have any mention of uncertainty so they are going with ECM/UKMO charts.

We shall see how the pros get on compared to the other models?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Some perspective on the GFS snow charts. For today:

15-779UK.thumb.gif.c0c283f3575f66046e35ac309140b898.gif

However, the MetOffice says rain apart from maybe hills (over 200m). Also the low on Thursday AM to clip the south coast with no snow and weekend more intensive rain. They do not have any mention of uncertainty so they are going with ECM/UKMO charts.

We shall see how the pros get on compared to the other models?

Tbh IDO I cannot remember how many times with such features the MET haven't come on board till the death!...@ nowcast put out....  Far to close to call!   Again we wait and see!?

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:


No thats a lovely little wedge 

#random-ensemble

Advertised well on the GEFS - heading for a stonker suite - even some Easterlies in there with proper blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Advertised well on the GEFS - heading for a stonker suite - even some Easterlies in there with proper blocking.

@March soon to be the UK most notorious winter month!??? @trending

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

December 2107, can't wait for that lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, snowrye said:

December 2107, can't wait for that lol

 

According to some it will be 30c in winter by then.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

According to some it will be 30c in winter by then.

Not on my watch it won't Feb!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Interesting that the GFS mean has the snow even further north.

gens-21-2-54.thumb.png.999a7dbfd2b5702659b12a6f784d60d7.png

Met Office forecast this morning was talking about just rain in the south, the next update will be interesting because they have just updated the graphics and its showing rain, sleet and snow further north than previously. At least if its further north there is more chance of someone seeing snowfall and a dumping in some lucky places, further south is useless for everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UK4 has the low much further south than most of the 06 hrs outputs .

The precip is also much lighter . It looks a bit dodgy re that especially . 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

further south is useless for everyone.

That's 1 of an array of plots\possible outs...and if we're nit picking data atm.....it's as we stand South of the Midlands in firing line for any snow!!!!..and the feature looks likely to end as just that....a channel lps

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The UK4 has the low much further south than most of the 06 hrs outputs .

The precip is also much lighter . It looks a bit dodgy re that especially . 

No fear  the Nav gem  is here   in line with other models  with a low of 985  as it passes the south east 

image.thumb.png.99c96d20190c57f939f31d731bb985d0.pngimage.thumb.png.7e98c2354bed092399eb4906787bb2cc.png   

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, nick sussex said:

The UK4 has the low much further south than most of the 06 hrs outputs .

The precip is also much lighter . It looks a bit dodgy re that especially . 

Strange to have this uncertainty still at T48, I know its not an easy one to get right but major differences there.

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That's 1 of an array of plots\possible outs...and if we're nit picking data atm.....it's as we stand South of the Midlands in firing line for any snow!!!!..and the feature looks likely to end as just that....a channel lps

Turning into the most fascinating model watching of the winter, just 24 hours ago ECM had the low just clipping the far south west and a weak affair at that.

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