Model output discussion 02/02/20

[weirpig]

Gfs Take  deepens the low to 985  asit exits  by the south east 

Edited February 25, 2020 by weirpig

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Gfs Take

What a time to get an upgrade for the midlands!

[tight isobar]

6z going for quick trasition rain-snow....north Midlands...southwards.....

Edited February 25, 2020 by tight isobar

[shaky]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

6z going for quick trasition rain-snow....north Midlands...southwards.....

Stays as snow all the way through for Midlands judging by the 06z!!amazing upgrade!!

[weirpig]

And the high res   to be fair anywhere in with a shout of the white stuff 

       

Edited February 25, 2020 by weirpig

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

6z going for quick trasition rain-snow....north Midlands...southwards.....

Yes the deepening and stronger flow of colder air back into the system from the north as it exits helps that quicker transition .

[tight isobar]

@74 hhrs.. A nice reflection in the ens...as a brief punch of hp (milder air)come forwards...now we look to the nw....again as features eye UK shores!!!

Edited February 25, 2020 by tight isobar

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes the deepening and stronger flow of colder air back into the system from the north as it exits helps that quicker transition .

Icon gives 8 to 10cms for north midlands

[tight isobar]

Just now, shaky said:

Icon gives 8 to 10cms for north midlands

Feasible imo...

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Feasible imo...

Any news on the snow accumulations from gfs!probably not as good as icon even though the gfs looks better lol!!

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on the snow accumulations from gfs!probably not as good as icon even though the gfs looks better lol!!

For 250 asl you 8\10 cms...as it stands achievable...more modest ....below that camp.....but even home counties likely a covering!.. Good to watch this evolve.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06 hrs run now trending back towards last nights 18 hrs , pulling the low back nw and similar to the ECM run.

 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

If that is D8-D10 I have no interest, as ECM is a miscreant in that time range and should be ignored. The D10 mean suggests the op is doing its usual, of overplaying heights, 25mb>mean!:

You might have no interest in the ECM(The best model) but to say there was no HLB in the output this morning was wrong. 

I would also say the mean you post above shows lows possibly disrupting under a HLB forming to the NE.

[weirpig]

The Hirlam  not buying the deeper low  and keeps the track more southerly 

[tight isobar]

12 hours ago, tight isobar said:

 

I get that...however..we know it's going to bounce up and down...and maybe just for nowcast when it comes down to the wire....but I'd guarantee some will benefit in snow accumulation terms....it just geographically pin-pointing as per...it's I'm sure not a miss -and redirect feature this!!.. Ppn @no issue.

@weirpig

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

The Hirlam  not buying the deeper low  and keeps the track more southerly 

I personally think it will be further south but thats the gfs 00z icon 06 and gfs 06z that are further north!!has it picked a new signal?!!12z should be interesting viewing!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ooo! too good to be true to expect a Dec 10th '17

[shaky]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ooo! too good to be true to expect a Dec 10th '17

Was gona say the exact same thing!!reminds of that event except this looks further north!!what a time to get an upgrade aswell!!i hope 12z show the same thing!

[Nick F]

16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on the snow accumulations from gfs!probably not as good as icon even though the gfs looks better lol!!

Really not worth looking at snow depths, let alone where it may snow. Think some moderation of excitement required for such a marginal situation and uncertainty of track for the low Thursday morning.

GFS has a habit of overcooking low depths, even this far out. The deeper the low the further north it tracks.

UKMO was closest with the track of yesterday's low that brought snow in the north in the morning at 3 or 4 days out, GFS was too deep and thus too far north initially. Both 06z UKV and 00z EC take a shallower low through the Channel / far north of France.

how much the heaviest precip along wrap around occlusion overlaps cold air at the suface on northern flank of low will be crucial, too light and it'll fall mostly rain or sleet. MO forecast for SE mentions wet snow, so the risk certainly there, though suspect higher ground such as the Downs, Chilterns, High Weald etc most likely to see any settling if precipitation is heavy and allows evaporative cooling. Light winds would be advantageous for evaporative cooling too.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Nick F

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I personally think it will be further south but thats the gfs 00z icon 06 and gfs 06z that are further north!!has it picked a new signal?!!12z should be interesting viewing!

Yes  very difficult to pin point the low  and were it will end up.  Interesting tonight could bring some interest  aot of shower activity showing up on various models   The Arome  would excite quite a few. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was gona say the exact same thing!!reminds of that event except this looks further north!!what a time to get an upgrade aswell!!i hope 12z show the same thing!

thing is as we all know, GFS overestimates northward movement and depth of the low, I think likeliest thing is a flop for north Midlands, and a S of M4 dumping like 1st Feb '19

Edited February 25, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[nick sussex]

The Arpege has gone crazy with the low . Has it much further north and deepens it rapidly .

[Midlander]

To my it looks as if the Arpege 06Z is further north as well, nice to look at but the UKV is keeping me grounded for the moment.

(UK view not updated yet)

[weirpig]

                                 Arp  Further North  Edit sorry Apple  didnt see your post 

Edited February 25, 2020 by weirpig

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

                                 Arp  Further North  Edit sorry Apple  didnt see your post 

Big upgrade!looking at 5-10cms for northern half and around 2 or 3 cms for southern mids!!im inbetween so around 5cms lol!!