Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC can't make up its mind what it wants to do pressure wise over Scandy..

image.thumb.png.0d30ed7e49bca5652b640ce3a930a5f5.png

I like what i see there at 168 hours!!looks so much more appealing than gfs!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height 

Freezing dew points don't guarantee you snow though, there are loads of other variables that would be marginal at 0c Dewpoints, for guaranteed snow you need them a few degrees below freezing.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height 

Do the models not take into height asl when they produce a 2m temp forecast 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, frosty ground said:

Do the models not take into height asl when they produce a 2m temp forecast 

True, i think they do, they must do as they do with temperature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS op for down here is one of the biggest mild outliers I’ve ever seen from around the 7 th March  , at one point it’s 18c above the mean .

I’m wondering whether we’re seeing the zonal wind discrepancy between the op and the GEFS.

The 00hrs GFS op rocketed zonal winds back up again whilst most of the GEFS brings those down .

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.611bd94a57a21f3fdccc1f1d732d25b0.png

ouch.

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, claret047 said:

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

Looks very very disturbed, lot of wind and rain i would imagine..it is a day 9 chart so will be unlikely to be correct at that range.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
13 minutes ago, claret047 said:

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

Well its 9 days away so chance of it verifying is 0%,best check the day before you go to hospital I would have thought than worrying 9 days away as its impossible to be that accurate so far out. 

Surprised you don't know that if your into the weather or it's a wind~up post. Lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Given GFS’ tendency to go a little too low with the dew points in a polar maritime flow (as evidenced a bit today), high rainfall totals remain the main concern for me - could see 30-50 mm for a large swathe of England Thu-Sat as the numerous small lows swing through. With the ground so saturated - to the point that groundwater flooding is occurring in many areas - this can only be bad news.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

These Channel lows always guarantee a good turnout in here ! 

They’re also a complete pain to forecast and drive nw members crazy !  If we had a low coming up against a block the tendency is often to edge them south.

We don’t have that block so what happens is really up in the air . The timing if this low lands is pretty good coming during the night , and earlier cleared skies should allow temps to dip ahead of the precip.

 

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.611bd94a57a21f3fdccc1f1d732d25b0.png

ouch.

Very cold in Greenland a.t.m -15c so expect colder air to filter south as the week progresses.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op for down here is one of the biggest mild outliers I’ve ever seen from around the 7 th March  , at one point it’s 18c above the mean .

I’m wondering whether we’re seeing the zonal wind discrepancy between the op and the GEFS.

The 00hrs GFS op rocketed zonal winds back up again whilst most of the GEFS brings those down .

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs (like last summer's 23C uppers?) are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well its 9 days away so chance of it verifying is 0%,best check the day before you go to hospital I would have thought than worrying 9 days away as its impossible to be that accurate so far out. 

Surprised you don't know that if your into the weather or it's a wind~up post. Lol 

Hello Sleety thanks for your reply. No it wasn't a wind up but a genuine question. I could see the LP fairly south, but wondered if the "ouch" comment by the poster to whom I replied was astonishment at what he perceived to be a brilliant chart for snow or a "ouch" of disappointment or despair. 

I will take your advice and keep an eye on how it all pans out,

Kind regards

Dave

Edited by claret047
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

The GEFS seem to have done a big switch around day 11 onwards . Over half have a ridge to the west/nw.  The reason it’s not an outlier in terms of SLP is the GFS op has high pressure but in the wrong place for cold , many of the GEFS have high pressure in the right place both have high pressure close by .

Whether this sudden shift will then suddenly switch back to crud only time will tell . I’m not really into longer range ensembles but I was quite surprised by the change especially as it wasn’t a case of lots of different types of  cold evolutions , so just random noise . The signal seems to be towards one evolution .

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Do love a channel (possible) lps....as Nick Sussex mentions...the nails will be down to the quick...next 48hrs.... All eyes on track and trace..!! Some could receive some notable accumulation...should placement fall correct........

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
27 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs (like last summer's 23C uppers?) are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

You only have to note the below mean line clustering..to almost guarantee...clear outlier solutions...with cold\colder now the lead man!

Screenshot_20200224-200335.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

These Channel lows always guarantee a good turnout in here ! 

They’re also a complete pain to forecast and drive nw members crazy !  If we had a low coming up against a block the tendency is often to edge them south.

We don’t have that block so what happens is really up in the air . The timing if this low lands is pretty good coming during the night , and earlier cleared skies should allow temps to dip ahead of the precip.

 

 

Yeah, we're still too far out to nail the track of this low, though a scan of the 50 12z EPS members indicates around half going with a low moving up through the English Channel,  some have the low centre further north over mainland UK, others the low over France (but in a minority), some no low at all - as would be expected. 

Even if the track is good and the precipitation is there ... forecast dew points, thicknesses and surface temps look rather too marginal without elevation for now, certainly for settling snow. But we need the models to settle on the track first before we worry about the specifics, and if they look more encouraging we get excited and then many of us get disappointed by a damp squib anyway. 

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at a selection of GEFS 12z postage stamps I think it’s fair to say there is more wintry weather on the way this week and of course today brought disruptive snow for some of us...about time this winter woke up..better late than never!..good luck my fellow coldies.

93FCB099-F8BE-40AD-842E-495FAFE9E208.thumb.png.5cc09ea3d06651a592a5c53aa9d6f39e.png82F5C8DD-F12D-48A7-B7D9-BDFE841406B8.thumb.png.f538163ee3bf49c58946efd601b85a66.png3D75A0F2-9565-48D8-BE2C-F865773D34FF.thumb.png.4121e806a7298106dbe5d9772850bb91.png73F08E9A-6D9F-45C0-A3B7-5BAE8864B1A6.thumb.png.a0d1870bb7bea4588cc2da8b87e9430b.png

 

 

again it’s nothing unusual for likes of Scotland to get disruptive snow in winter even the most crapiest on winter Scotland will have one or two disruptive snowfall

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I quiet like the op and mean at(yes i know)day ten

269637309_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.36e2de109e61d2696844635d8ae1725c.gifEDH1-240.thumb.gif.0b62fbab4c52dee6b123d31c97b95399.gifgraphe_ens3_llf9.thumb.png.ce0092f0df01452d87b00f77d5179a6f.png

trough digging into NW Europe and keeping us on the cool to cold side of the jet,i am sure there will be some wintry surprises through the week and into next.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I quiet like the op and mean at(yes i know)day 

trough digging into NW Europe and keeping us on the cool to cold side of the jet,i am sure there will be some wintry surprises through the week and into next.

And....another good looking set of ens......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...