Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Radiating Dendrite]

Good looking charts, but a lot of places that were showing snow today ended up with rain, even those with some height in Scotland.

It really is hit and miss with these things, personally I am just expecting rain down this way. If it is cold enough, the low will be too far south; If we have lots of precipitation the low will be too far north and it will be too warm.

[chicken soup]

48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12Z GFS track for Thurs AM.

That can't be right.. Its showing heavy snow over Lancashire.

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thurs shallow low tracking along the channel indicating PPN field would extend up to about the M4. 

Low looks deeper than the gfs 12z steve!!think precipitation a little bit further north than the m4?!!!

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Good looking charts, but a lot of places that were showing snow today ended up with rain, even those with some height in Scotland.

It really is hit and miss with these things, personally I am just expecting rain down this way. If it is cold enough, the low will be too far south; If we have lots of precipitation the low will be too far north and it will be too warm.

Good point.

Just a reminder for folks not to get too excited and to lower their expectations.. We're in with a shout and nothing is for certain.

[Methuselah]

I guess we'll just need to wait a while for the first real signs of spring. But, after weeks of gales, lashing rain, mud, filth and, of course, phantom snowfalls, I hope it'll be worth the wait!?

    

And what a boon this would be, for those us who work in the fields?

     

As long as it doesn't get push back and back and back and back, until it's too late...like snow!

Edited February 24, 2020 by General Cluster

[northwestsnow]

58 minutes ago, shaky said:

Low looks deeper than the gfs 12z steve!!think precipitation a little bit further north than the m4?!!!

Dew points looks wrong side of marginal for many

Hopefully the low will be shallower come thurs..

[Cleeve Hill]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dew points looks wrong side of marginal for many

Hopefully the low will be shallower come thurs..

Where do the Dew Points need to be NWS ?

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Where do the Dew Points need to be NWS ?

Below 0c.

Once above it is slush and drip drip.

Think we may be turd polishing a little given this represents the best of winter 2020! Pretty poor really.....marginal slush fest. 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Where do the Dew Points need to be NWS ?

Dews would need to be zero or below ...

Ideally.

Recently in a north westerly locally we had dew points at -3/4 and 850s of -7 and still got rain and sleet @ 200m so there are lots of variables to look at.

Edited February 24, 2020 by northwestsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone seen so many southerly tracking LPs?  Ain’t going to be mild that’s for sure!  
 

BFTP

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Below 0c.

Once above it is slush and drip drip.

Think we may be turd polishing a little given this represents the best of winter 2020! Pretty poor really.....marginal slush fest. 

Totally agree unfortunately, those snow charts posted above are notoriously innaccurate...just cant see anthing worth talking about for the south away from the moors and Beacons this Thursday, those that know (the ones we cant talk about here) have no mention of wintry precipitation in their forecast away from the north...on the flip side, thankfully the models arent showing any storm force winds which is reffered to in todays text update.  

[Beanz]

The forecast for later this week has moved away from sleet for the south, it’s now showing rain.  I’m not surprised given where the dew points are.  

[Bristawl Si]

Cold rain it is then; go away! Hurry up Spring.

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Beanz said:

The forecast for later this week has moved away from sleet for the south, it’s now showing rain.  I’m not surprised given where the dew points are.  

Which forecast For which day? Based on which model?  Meto 4pm update for the south has moved from rain showers on Thurs to rain and snow on hills. Their graphic also now has sleet and snow symbols.

Let be clear though,  there is very little risk of powdery snow for anyone below 250m south of Leeds but slushy accumulations are possible and almost everyone is at risk of seeing snow falling over the next 7 days...eagerly awaiting ECMs take on things. 

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, Beanz said:

The forecast for later this week has moved away from sleet for the south, it’s now showing rain.  I’m not surprised given where the dew points are.  

Need continental Arctic or maritime Arctic air to see decent snow down in the South at this time of year onwards. 

Not happening I don't think. Let's just get some dry weather now. 

Edited February 24, 2020 by SLEETY

[Tim Bland]

ECM Thurs morn ....

[Beanz]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Which forecast For which day? Based on which model?  Meto 4pm update for the south has moved from rain showers on Thurs to rain and snow on hills. Their graphic also now has sleet and snow symbols.

Let be clear though,  there is very little risk of powdery snow for anyone below 250m south of Leeds but slushy accumulations are possible and almost everyone is at risk of seeing snow falling over the next 7 days...eagerly awaiting ECMs take on things. 

METO, for Thursday, north of London, South of Notts, below 200m

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM Thurs morn ....

Looks much further south than ukmo and gfs!!have to go with ecm here especially considering the early time frames here!!

[northwestsnow]

EC looks slightly further south with thurs low to me..

A few more corrections south needed for those in the south..

Edited February 24, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Lampostwatcher]

M4 looks a good place to be on Thursday morning 

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM Thurs morn ....

Using the same time and model you would have to say that snow indication looks highly dubious

 

Edited February 24, 2020 by knocker

[shaky]

Any news on ecm 12z!any snowy surprises for the weekend or early next week?

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Using the same time and model you would have to say that snow indication looks highly dubious

 

One of the things that caught my eye was the effect of the irish sea on NW England- helps explain for those in said area are in a very bad place insofar as snowfall is concerned, and one of the reasons an easterly is much much better,well, for all concerned of a snow wanting constitution..

[northwestsnow]

EC can't make up its mind what it wants to do pressure wise over Scandy..

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Using the same time and model you would have to say that snow indication looks highly dubious

 

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height