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Model output discussion 02/02/20

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)

Icon  again brings the low and precipitation further north  than the 6z    on Thursday   Although  looks marginal  for snow   further north the better  also for Saturday  a snowy picture  with precipitation turning to snow 

image.thumb.png.eb1c03d5f5ec5f691055f52c3712a661.png

Edited by weirpig
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Climate Man Seasoned

Climate Man

Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Posted
54 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some interest with the 6z ens showing some height rises in the right places! All in all a week to keep glued to the latest forecasts, much uncertainty over the track of low pressure this weekend! One thing I will say is.... This must be the first time this winter things show a little promise! It won't be desperately cold, but we don't need desperate, just the right side of marginal for the white stuff... One thing for sure is it will be feeling alot colder than we have become accustomed to! Fingers crossed for later this week.. And on parting note, the recent warm up over the Antarctica left apart of the continent literally ice free... Pretty amazing, but not necessarily in a good way. 

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-1-126.png

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gens-17-0-324.png

gens-17-1-324.png

06_120_preciptype.png

06_123_preciptype.png

antarctic-ice-22120.gif

I think it was actually snow that went with the ice left behind. Whilst not good, it is summer. It was perhaps the speed of melt that was different 

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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being thick...the green hatch is snow? Or just the blue hatch area? 

Both but green is heavier. Light blue usually doesn't amount to anything at all.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Get your hats and gloves on lads. 

This could verify considering it's only on Thursday! 

snow2.thumb.png.8ae034e7f95fefb1c77ce3dee4e39bc0.png

snow3.thumb.png.cbaad816b624c9d4db3de81f1c65cf0b.png

snow4.thumb.png.08ef14afbd129e123852af56e9e4b90c.png

snow5.thumb.png.6f91f5d8fd05b4e049d5f8482d8a690c.png

Let's hope it doesn't change in the last minute!

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being thick...the green hatch is snow? Or just the blue hatch area? 

Yes and the colour is for different intensity.

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Get your hats and gloves on lads. 

This could verify considering it's only on Thursday! 

snow2.thumb.png.8ae034e7f95fefb1c77ce3dee4e39bc0.png

snow3.thumb.png.cbaad816b624c9d4db3de81f1c65cf0b.png

snow4.thumb.png.08ef14afbd129e123852af56e9e4b90c.png

snow5.thumb.png.6f91f5d8fd05b4e049d5f8482d8a690c.png

Let's hope it doesn't change in the last minute!

It seems to tie in with the met office video forcast they think that's the track 

Weather it will be snow that's anyone's guess

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon  again brings the low and precipitation further north  than the 6z    on Thursday   Although  looks marginal  for snow   further north the better  also for Saturday  a snowy picture  with precipitation turning to snow 

image.thumb.png.eb1c03d5f5ec5f691055f52c3712a661.png

Not a great trend for southern counties.  I’m hoping the GFS is leading here!

Edited by Don
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z is showing something interesting:

saturday.png

saturday0.png

saturday1.png

saturday2.png

chart.thumb.png.34fb669309d05a70951ad355f50372ab.png

 

Edited by Zak M
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SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted

Don't know how we can be getting to a more blocked pattern unless it is forced from the troposphere somehow as that polar vortex shows no signs of slowing down neither.

The CFS members on weather is cool have the vortex lasting right into May

u10serie.thumb.png.792ff7455b12b60609945810c0d19215.png

At this rate could we see our first ever recorded zonal westerlies at 10hpa in June?

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Is the snow still there for england on the 12z?ukmo looks intersting at 144 hours for central southern england!shortwave coming through with cold air to the north!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Winter as spring approaches again? 

Never thought that would ever happen again lol. 

Snow chances increasing for everyone this week

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 12 z

Saying snow thursday friday and Saturday for most of UK ❄

Falling snow yes...accumulating snow? Only for high ground and Scotland on this run unfortunately. Probably only a degree lower temps required to change that though!

07FBB8CF-17AB-46DE-8A1E-481E83A040C0.gif

B8F73D92-4CCD-49A9-BB0E-450F202E91CB.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Beginning of March looks interesting too!

gfs.thumb.png.188ea791678f573a920d36f218e1ef59.pnggfs0.thumb.png.1485a0d3643d3e7c4a7e297a162cc3c3.pnggfs1.thumb.png.62980ca451483271ee538d4d3b6060ac.pnggfs2.thumb.png.ddd7386d1c60065741bbe8837e3025d5.png

gfs3.thumb.png.421fc103ac6d9f56af189c0b5ac27b75.pnggfs4.thumb.png.d0992b5beb64c8cde62ddfae4603025b.pnggfs5.thumb.png.88c830f4d80a54cb18565ce9ccf569fb.pnggfs6.thumb.png.c77da738a1a66f6f077d05bce26de530.png

gfs6.thumb.png.c77da738a1a66f6f077d05bce26de530.pnggfs7.thumb.png.1eebce41b595326c74996329715ff9fa.pnggfs8.thumb.png.2b735c87d422c1002e1c8331eb73d77b.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

The GEM's take on Thursday is very similar to the GFS:

gem.png

gem0.png

gem1.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

Firstly great exciting posts guys... Secondly I'm out of reactions... 3rdly the man from GFS snow charts says... Yessssssssss!! And finally... Come onnnnnnn... 

12_72_preciptype.png

12_93_preciptype.png

12_120_preciptype.png

KBBA6Q.gif

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GEM's take on Thursday is very similar to the GFS:

gem.png

gem0.png

gem1.png

GEM looks better than GFS for accumulating snow also a tad further north

F6B2F9D7-6920-4FA7-A6BB-736B7ECA51DC.png

AD8682F4-E86F-4A57-92FE-9F27850AEE18.png

ED1C71B6-5360-4D8E-A086-36FF7D3DA82D.png

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