Model output discussion 02/02/20

[nick sussex]

Back to reality this morning . Not sure this is the end of any wedge type area of heights developing to the n/ne because the opportunity is still there but delayed .

I think it shows though how complicated these scenarios are when you’re trying to advect cold into the UK from a small wedge of high pressure .

As for the Channel Low , still a lot of uncertainty with that feature . 

The ICON 06 hrs run has corrected the low a bit further north .

 

Edited February 24, 2020 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Back to reality this morning . Not sure this is the end of any wedge type area of heights developing to the n/ne because the opportunity is still there but delayed .

I think it shows though how complicated these scenarios are when you’re trying to advect cold into the UK from a small wedge of high pressure .

As for the Channel Low , still a lot of uncertainty with that feature . 

 

 

Yes agreed playing around with no ample blocking..and relying on transitional wedge placement is fruaght...although trawling through this morning...we are by far at the best place for any notable winter like weather countrywide..for the next 14 days than we have been all season....let's see where we head today!?..   Although worth an eye on possible rises to Scandinavian sector a tad further on also.

Edited February 24, 2020 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Gfs 06z delayed?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean it’s an unsettled outlook but as we head further into March there are signs that heights from the Azores will encroach towards southern britain meaning more of a north / south split with the jet pushed further north. 
 

Edited February 24, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean it’s an unsettled outlook but as we head further into March there are signs that heights from the Azores will encroach towards southern britain meaning more of a north / south split with the jet pushed further north. 
 

Aye Karl; whatever happens, we could do with losing the tight temperature-gradient?

    

Otherwise, it'll be rain, rain and more rain!

Yep...More rain!

    

Edited February 24, 2020 by General Cluster

[ICE COLD]

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z delayed?

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens . But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs . 

Edited February 24, 2020 by ICE COLD

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens . But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs . 

These gfs precip charts will be on the money @5/6 days out 1 day...let's hopenows the time!!!.. As for any north \South defined sp!it in temperature gradient...it's far early to say!..especially with divergence in the overall evolution atm..

Edited February 24, 2020 by tight isobar

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens . But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs . 

Looks like an upgrade on the 00z that?!!saturdays continues to be forecasted as a snowy day across parts of england!!i personally think it wont happen but its nice to look at anyway!!

[weirpig]

The low on Thursday  is still one to be watched   The Arp  brings it quite a bit further north  Than its 0z run 

Edited February 24, 2020 by weirpig

[nick sussex]

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

[SMU]

Saturdays feature 

[weirpig]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

Having a quick look through the GFS Ensembles  there is very much still a lot to be resolved   some bring the low on a southerly track   and some bring it further north slightly more deep   bringing heavy snow to the middle of the country   One to keep an eye on   

Edited February 24, 2020 by weirpig

[Methuselah]

Now this, at T+357 ('nuff said?) would be welcome to many, I'm sure...a wonderful chance for some drying-out!

    

 

[Froze were the Days]

Why on earth can't we get high pressure form other than at the Azores or over Europe!?!...all I see is low pressure everywhere to the north and west or over us even when there is not a rampant jet!...warmer North Atlantic? (2018/19 winter also the case).

[shaky]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

Hope it moves further north but i think 12z shall confirm that it goes through the channel/south coast of england!!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hope it moves further north but i think 12z shall confirm that it goes through the channel/south coast of england!!

It seems as if we might be seeing a middle ground solution .  The ECM though is quite far south compared to the others .

Same old story with these types of lows, I’ve yet to see one which hasn’t caused a drama .

 

[tight isobar]

Well the ens are really going for it now...and are even better than the last 4 suites...@6z.. Our best opportunity by far yet!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Regarding Thursday’s Low - looking at the 06Z GFS, 06Z ICON, 00Z UKMO, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z GEM, 00Z NAVGEM and 06Z ARPEGE (below in that sequence):

...have tried to draw an overall average position of that Low at the bottom of this post from all the operational models above.

Due to the time-frame, it’s a bit difficult to judge where that Low would head through the UK on that UKMO run (but assume it would probably take a track through the Southern Counties of the UK, or maybe possibly up towards Central Midlands). You can see though all the models above vary in their track and area the Low heads through. But the Southern portion of the UK probably looks the favourite track currently. Further South it goes, the less marginal it could become for falling sleet or snow over Southern UK. However, too far South and the rain/sleet or snow could miss the UK completely. So certainly some fine lines their!

Mean current average where the Low may head through on Thursday:

[knocker]

The gfs is not a million miles from this morning's fax

[Don]

3 hours ago, shaky said:

Looks like an upgrade on the 00z that?!!saturdays continues to be forecasted as a snowy day across parts of england!!i personally think it wont happen but its nice to look at anyway!!

That puts me ‘almost’ in the sweet spot.  Unlikely but always nice to see!

Edited February 24, 2020 by Don

[nick sussex]

In terms of that possible snow on Saturday shown by the GFS.

Thats an undercut of colder air so not the more usual precip meeting cold air scenario.

So as ever complicated! 

Edited February 24, 2020 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

UKV looks interesting for some on Thurs

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV looks interesting for some on Thurs

From That  I presume  it takes the low further north     

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some interest with the 6z ens showing some height rises in the right places! All in all a week to keep glued to the latest forecasts, much uncertainty over the track of low pressure this weekend! One thing I will say is.... This must be the first time this winter things show a little promise! It won't be desperately cold, but we don't need desperate, just the right side of marginal for the white stuff... One thing for sure is it will be feeling alot colder than we have become accustomed to! Fingers crossed for later this week.. And on parting note, the recent warm up over the Antarctica left apart of the continent literally ice free... Pretty amazing, but not necessarily in a good way. 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Mattwolves

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The GFS 06Z OP has picked up plenty of interest - Control goes in a completely different direction which makes me think the medium to longer term evolution is far from resolved. It's almost expected that in the absence of a clear signal GFS FI will default to a zonal Atlantic scenario and so it proves.

Yet both OP and Control have support in the Ensembles so it's heads I win, tails you lose at the moment as to whether a tropospheric led change is likely in the second week of next month. 

The other change is the growing signal for a new warming at the very edge of FI - we've been here before but it's in the OP rather than being led by Control so I give it more credence. It also appears to be originating from the Canadian side which would support a vortex push into Siberia and perhaps some opportunities in mid to late March for us if the dice fall right. I'm also pleased to see Control following along however.