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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

April heatwaves it is then, Fred?:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It is difficult to know where we are going at this point.  Obviously, it has been a relentless series of Atlantic weather systems and storms, but is this coming to an end, and if so what will replace it?  

CFS showing above average angular momentum which might help, 

image.thumb.jpg.570c495f92be2a8b3b3633e9134090d3.jpg

Otherwise it is difficult to see where an amplified pattern might come from, and we're getting no help from the strat at all, here it is T384 from this mornings 0z run

image.thumb.jpg.ce70bce6f50573ea5cc57974ac50cae9.jpg

If anything wintry does transpire in the next week or two it will be entirely trop driven, so we watch the models, is the trop vortex finally starting to wane?  We will see.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

All to play for This Thursday could blanket southern England in it’s first snow of the winter.
Key player positioning of low pressure track,should get a better idea in next few days.

country file weather just saying the uncertainty at the moment.

looked like uncertainty with rain unfortunately!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z only goes to T120 bless it, but looks an improvement on the 12z run, here T120, compared to 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.73b6d193290a051781d5c1f8d59392f5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7c1b1742abc5ee993ea878e9265f4217.jpg

Upstream forcing looks stronger to me....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

Coming up quite repeatedly on various runs. Could be some late winter model watching fun coming up!

gfs-0-240.png?12

ECM ensembles from this morning, cluster 3 is the best development of this scenario, sending the trough into Europe, hmmmm...

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022300_300.

So a chance of something a bit less predictable in around 10 days time, but  until then, the main focus will remain on short spells of snow further north and deepening lows as they reach the UK - looks like the south of the UK in particular might experience some localised storms. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GFS 18z showing still some interesting things to come next week.

However, will the south start to see snow next week? Let’s hope the models start to show this in a few days time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

No one messes with our super wedge !

If the upstream troughing was just a bit weaker that would disrupt sending energy se and keep the continental flow into the UK for longer . It’s the slider shortwave ejecting off that trough that would really up the ante.

Regardless a very interesting run from the GFS upto day ten .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BBQ weather already !!!!

Lol

 i see what i have put there BA

too many steaks recently lol

Love to put a stake in that pv though.

P.S,i have edited the post above,i am pretty good at English

anyway the 18z looks good to me with a growing sign of a Scandi high building perhaps!

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
On 20/02/2020 at 18:39, tight isobar said:

Big highlights here in reference...take the ecm12z @144 with 850hpas in toe... The shortwave Scandinavian feature pens and disrupts clean evolution....yet by the 26 Feb it may not exist in sequence at all.. And allow dripping of value....also highlights my mjo scwerming!!!..looking forward to all suites 500 geopotential outs tonight!      Edit. Will add charts shortly having a few issues....

ECH0-144.gif

ECM1-144.gif

An-increasing format of gain...with a more continental element...so this evolution just gaining......winter finally looks on.....as we head spring wards!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
On 20/02/2020 at 19:00, tight isobar said:

. The it's not as borderline as all winter with ramifications on the turn it's dripping just correct..and I personally can see a transition to a more North\north east elements...as we gain. Certainly a backloaded out. Just to what degree is for decipher.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

An-increasing format of gain...with a more continental element...so this evolution just gaining......winter finally looks on.....as we head spring wards!!!!

This was where we were always going to end up if the seasonal models were right (they were, this time), shame they are pants if they are predicting cold.....so are we going to get our consolation mini-winter in March?  Little Ice Age?  

Well don't bank on the GFS, but here it is at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.000f3ac8754f6ab544c735771f780a22.jpg

Maybe increased amplification would help, wouldn't it always!    Hey ho! 

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/23/europe-on-the-long-term-23rd-feb-2/
My final forecast for the long term in Europe this season. The final days of the month and first 10 days in March look a little more hopeful for snowfall prospects according to models and the tropical drivers. But this will subside in mid-March.

At the end of the day, the season was not that great, and the drivers failed to get us into a conducive state.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Not looking as good this morning, the lows looks further north and the wedge is gone for next Monday's snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

00z GFS 29-2-20

Festive Leap Year Day......

h500slp.thumb.png.50ba7826d57a24adb09f6d1338752ab5.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.2aff0c34fb50eedb0119a9ebc86dd560.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

After a possible week with snow being seen in many parts of U.K. the GFS looking at the possibility of a Scandinavia 

high pressure build,well into fantasy island at the moment.But one to watch for middle March and a continuation 

of winter.

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