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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
28 minutes ago, Griff said:

gfsnh-0-306 (1).png

Interesting FI once more, does it go anywhere? 

gfsnh-0-324.png

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, I'd take the first 10-days of that 12Z, alright: opportunities for wintriness while wintriness is still wanted; the last 5-days, however (meandering, stagnating blobs of cold, damp nothingness) can go do one. It's shame it's too early in the year for inland convection?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
17 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

It’s fairly standard for early spring for the PV to start loosing it’s grip. If it’s deep and crisp and even you are after it will take something very special when approaching mid March! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I'd take the first 10-days of that 12Z, alright: opportunities for wintriness while wintriness is still wanted; the last 5-days, however (meandering, stagnating blobs of cold, damp nothingness) can go do one. It's shame it's too early in the year for inland convection?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

Give it a month and inland convection will be just around the corner!!

But first, we gotta wait. I need some snow immediately! Especially because the chances of getting snow will start to slip away in about 2 weeks time.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

is their possible another  big storm heading our way at 192 hr

gfs-2-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
7 minutes ago, tinybill said:

is their possible another  big storm heading our way at 192 hr

gfs-2-192.png

Maybe - or it could just be periods of heavy rain. It's too far out though to be certain!

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storm1.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s a lot to like about the ECM op in terms of overall pattern . This is now the second run to move the main PV further towards the Pacific side .

If we can stop the main PV from feeding energy into low pressure to the west nw of the UK that will mean we have a better chance of developing more interest . 

The Euro limpet high is displaced which is a plus , I think I speak for the vast majority in here in saying good riddance to it !

 

Very good gfs and ecm tonight!!to think anywhere in the uk could see snow from tonight till day 10 is bonkers considering the winter we just endured!

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s a lot to like about the ECM op in terms of overall pattern . This is now the second run to move the main PV further towards the Pacific side .

If we can stop the main PV from feeding energy into low pressure to the west nw of the UK that will mean we have a better chance of developing more interest . 

The Euro limpet high is displaced which is a plus , I think I speak for the vast majority in here in saying good riddance to it !

 

I also like the developing heights over Scandinavia at T=216 and T+240 which keep the trough negatively aligned.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Countryfile forecast highlighting the uncertainty for Thursday with some models showing a system tracking across England generally M4 route. Mix of Snow and Rain if that was to come off. Cotswolds, Chilterns etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, stodge said:

I also like the developing heights over Scandinavia at T=216 and T+240 which keep the trough negatively aligned.

Yes that’s another plus . I look forward to seeing the ECM ensembles later , hopefully some there develop the pattern further west .

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Any snow will likely melt rapidly through daylight hours at this time of year.

Peak time for lying snow this week will be evening to sunrise..

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

The 12Z ECMWF seems to end with a Low Pressure area swinging over into the North Sea, East of the UK. The combination of the amplified Azores/Canadian High out West together with High Pressure over Scandinavia means the trough of Low Pressure becomes angled from a North-West to South-East direction through the UK keeping the pattern quite chilly. (I guess as Nick and Stodge mention, encourages to keep the troughing on a negative slant). 

04B12BF6-01E1-4689-B07D-D277CFA0E1BE.thumb.png.1cb23380e07a1b359e3cf039de51d94b.png2D5DA7ED-7A67-49C5-9087-61C4952D22F9.thumb.png.08d20ac49e6dcc0e2f9f11b21c617daf.png
 

A Scandinavian and/or Russian High can help assist with Lows out West in the Atlantic sliding and disrupting against the blocking to the North-East of the UK. Particularly with a Jet Stream that tracks quite far South. 

And it appears to be the case that the models have shown some Low Pressure systems to track quite far South into this new week and probably into the week after, along with the Jet Stream, to make it tough work for a European High to stamp its foot firmly down to our South-East. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

All to play for This Thursday could blanket southern England in it’s first snow of the winter.
Key player positioning of low pressure track,should get a better idea in next few days.

country file weather just saying the uncertainty at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Brrrr... -13c in Scotland? 

cold.thumb.png.4184c5377676757f7dccce4bc6d6b732.png

This obviously might not verify - but, DANG!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Just the way it goes sometimes.  Better late than never IMO.  I’m with CreweCold on this and would be happy to see falling snow!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Tuesday looking quite good for snow to even low levels for Ireland. Plenty troughs and with thickness sub 528 and uppers nudging -8 we're in with a decent shout of lying snow come Wed morning. It hasn't been a good Winter but you couldn't class February as mild either just a rampant PV I guess....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

If this verifies 

sno.thumb.png.0e1c230bf87281eb061899f1d4df962e.png

sno0.thumb.png.2a6e942d7f188b450154b4845552977b.png

snow1.thumb.png.20c005c70a8bb2268ac5a62a8e1d98f5.png

sno2.thumb.png.75852d14f1334cd6395b98879242ea60.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Despite considerable promise across a number of model suites, this T240 chart of ECM ensemble mean T850s kind of summed things up!  

image.thumb.jpg.9a35143fed5455b1b9772dc83c42fab7.jpg

You couldn't make this sort of thing up!  Is the UK cursed or something?  It would explain a lot in recent years....I should note that there are quite a few things in our favour by this point, but I'd feel more comfortable with the ECM ens on board.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Any snow will likely melt rapidly through daylight hours at this time of year.

Peak time for lying snow this week will be evening to sunrise..

I've always found this to be a meme to be honest. The 2013 and 2018 March snowfalls largely stuck around until milder air pushed in. If you've got a dusting then sure it's going to disappear but what good is a dusting anyway?

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