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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

That low is further south on Thursday but it's mostly rain 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup low shortwave edged further south on 12z for thursday!!probably end up in the channel or around m4 at this rate!

Generally speaking lows are always corrected weaker and slower (further south west) by the GFS closer to the time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO T144, compared to ICON 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.7ce465c2b5157ddb47822613ecf17769.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e3a81817f61f9293bfc756f9a36a69b5.jpg

To me it looks the UKMO would bring the more potent northerly from here, but it only goes toT144 so we await the other models.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS T150:

image.thumb.jpg.3291e902c2f5d0bd013c9601e8a57b11.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c6da47a71c1e72e479c3bbd23a0cd222.jpg

More organised cold plunge on this one than the ICON, let's see where this goes.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yes please 

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Shows up to 17cm in parts. Will probably be gone on the next run but shows the potential is there if the dice fall just right 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

GEM now have Thursdays channel low showing a south of the M4 event, mainly sleet and wet snow there by the look of things.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
33 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup low shortwave edged further south on 12z for thursday!!probably end up in the channel or around m4 at this rate!

Like the GEM and the ppn just scrapes the south with rain and maybe sleet

image.thumb.png.995aa33bc50aa8dafc4cf9b29a083d55.pngimage.thumb.png.e6959ba6bf13eb6d7bcf0b070ee66b56.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Another marginal event early next week is possible. So that’s tomorrow, Thurs, sat and then next Tues....surely one has to deliver for us snow starved English / welsh ?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shows up to 17cm in parts. Will probably be gone on the next run but shows the potential is there if the dice fall just right 

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Still the chance of someone winning the jackpot, I'm pretty sure now that some parts of the country will get lucky. Tricky though....I wonder who will have the winning ticket, almost as bad as the lottery this.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Interesting run with the GEM 12z too:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

An action packed GFS12 hrs run upto day ten . A lot going on but the detail for the UK and how much cold air can head south is reliant on quite small changes to the make up of the low pressure and associated shortwaves over the UK.

The UKMO at day 6 is underwhelming in comparison because it’s slow at lifting those heights to the north .

By day 5 the GFS is already doing that and angling the low to the west se allowing that small wedge to the north to advect  those colder 850s south .

We want nothing to do with the UKMO ! Be gone with you ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An action packed GFS12 hrs run upto day ten . A lot going on but the detail for the UK and how much cold air can head south is reliant on quite small changes to the make up of the low pressure and associated shortwaves over the UK.

The UKMO at day 6 is underwhelming in comparison because it’s slow at lifting those heights to the north .

By day 5 the GFS is already doing that and angling the low to the west se allowing that small wedge to the north to advect  those colder 850s south .

We want nothing to do with the UKMO ! Be gone with you ! 

Yes i mentioned UKMO Nick..

850s reflect your post.

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

The danger with all these runs is that it looks like the sort of pattern that could deliver a lot of rain ( or transient snow) to some areas that really don’t need it!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i mentioned UKMO Nick..

850s reflect your post.

Yes you were right , it’s meh ! We need those deeper low  heights around Iceland to lift out as soon as possible . The UKMO only barely starts that at day 6 with that miniscule area of darker blue over Iceland which you need the Hubble telescope to find ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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