Model output discussion 02/02/20

[shaky]

Wow ecm better this morning!!gfs better this morning and ukmo looking good!!cold and potentially snowy week anywhere this coming week❄

[Zak M]

Good morning everyone!

It's a wet morning currently, with some lines of light rain in the south, and more heavy showers in the north. The heavy showers in the north could produce hail, thunder, and some sleet or snow. 

For Sunday afternoon, some of the lines of rain that are down in the south will still be present. These shouldn't be heavy however, like the showers in the north. The heavy showers in the north will start to clear away, although not completely, as one or two showers will still be possible. For places in between the north and the south, like the Midlands, it will be dry, with some sunny spells possible. Temperatures in the south should range from 6-13c, and in the north, they should range from 3-10c.

For Sunday evening and overnight, it will literally be the same picture as for the afternoon, with lines of rain clearing in the south, and with some showers clearing in the north. This will lead to some evening sunshine and a dry and fine evening. Temperatures in the evening in the south should range from 5-10c, and in the north, they should range from 2-7c.

Tomorrow morning sees a band of rain that could turn wintry over northern parts of England and Scotland (and us southerlies are always missing out on snow!!). Significant snow amounts might not be possible but some people who haven't seen snow this winter and live in the north have a chance! 

[nick sussex]

Not a bad GFS 06 hrs run . Still a lot of uncertainty though with how the troughing develops to the west and how sharp it might be .

Earlier the models disagree with the shortwave between day 4 and 5 . Just been through all 50 ECM ensemble members . Given we’re talking a shortish timeframe they’re all over the place . 

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a bad GFS 06 hrs run . Still a lot of uncertainty though with how the troughing develops to the west and how sharp it might be .

Earlier the models disagree with the shortwave between day 4 and 5 . Just been through all 50 ECM ensemble members . Given we’re talking a shortish timeframe they’re all over the place . 

 

Uncertainty shall require model verification via lampposts? 

[Methuselah]

A sliver of a chance that I'll see at least one falling snowflake, this winter?

    

And then, as we approach mid-month, a change to something a little more conducive to some early suntanning might evolve? Though I won't count on it!

    

The very last thing I want to see is anything like the neverending crud-fest that was March 2013!

[shaky]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a bad GFS 06 hrs run . Still a lot of uncertainty though with how the troughing develops to the west and how sharp it might be .

Earlier the models disagree with the shortwave between day 4 and 5 . Just been through all 50 ECM ensemble members . Given we’re talking a shortish timeframe they’re all over the place . 

 

Is there quite a few members that take it further south than the gfs 06z!!ideally you want it to slide as much as possible?its definate improvement from yesterdays runs for the same time!that up tick in 850s i was talking about yesterday between 28th and 29th now starting to flatten out again!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is there quite a few members that take it further south than the gfs 06z!!ideally you want it to slide as much as possible?its definate improvement from yesterdays runs for the same time!that up tick in 850s i was talking about yesterday between 28th and 29th now starting to flatten out again!

There’s something for everyone ! Further south, further north etc .

Glad I’m just a neutral observer here ! These shortwaves as we’ve seen in the past can cause bedlam in here ! 

 

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is there quite a few members that take it further south than the gfs 06z!!ideally you want it to slide as much as possible?its definate improvement from yesterdays runs for the same time!that up tick in 850s i was talking about yesterday between 28th and 29th now starting to flatten out again!

Its further south on the control run, classic north of the M4 event there.

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Its further south on the control run, classic north of the M4 event there.

 

Yep, just need a correction 100 miles south and I will be smiling!  Can the final days of February salvage something for this winter?

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, just need a correction 100 miles south and I will be smiling!  Can the final days of February salvage something for this winter?

We can but hope Don. I

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, just need a correction 100 miles south and I will be smiling!  Can the final days of February salvage something for this winter?

Don't wont it too far south though, 100 miles and it would likely miss us, just clipping the south coast and producing a wintry mixture at best, a case of another channel low to add to the long list of close but no cigar.

[Don]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Don't wont it too far south though, 100 miles and it would likely miss us, just clipping the south coast and producing a wintry mixture at best, a case of another channel low to add to the long list of close but no cigar.

Yes, it's all a balancing act.  I think it could be a case of potential surprise snowfalls for some this week.

[Chertseystreamer79]

Didnt someone say end of feb/early march was our best shot sometime back in December?? Have we not know this all along??... and if proved right that prediction would deserve a huge cigar and decent wiskey! 

 

For now...a few miles further south(as theses runs normally do) and we could be in!

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Don't wont it too far south though, 100 miles and it would likely miss us, just clipping the south coast and producing a wintry mixture at best, a case of another channel low to add to the long list of close but no cigar.

Indeed, as per current ECM which has it as a very weak feature. A long way to go before getting excited about Thursday 

[Tim Bland]

GEM on the other hand goes for a much deeper low and further north than GFS, snow northern England / Scotland and rain further south.

All eyes on the UKMO later. Could be a fun week of playing ‘north a bit, south a bit’....

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed, as per current ECM which has it as a very weak feature. A long way to go before getting excited about Thursday 

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, it's all a balancing act.  I think it could be a case of potential surprise snowfalls for some this week.

Yes that ECM chart would be useless, none the less a tasty little feature if the GFS is closer to the mark. All a long way off of course.

 

[nick sussex]

I should stress that the current shortwave is somewhat different from the normal dramas we see .

The shortwave isn’t a bellwether for how strong any blocking is . In those situations a more northerly track suggests the Atlantic winning the battle .

In this instance the track of the shortwave day 4 into 5 makes little difference to the overall pattern moving forward .

Shortwave track though will be a key indicator later if we see a wedge of heights developing to the n/ne.

In terms of the modelling going forward , the area to the nw and north as you can see from the outputs turns very messy .

Generally in those situations the higher resolution ops should take precedence against what might seem an initial lack of ensemble support because the lower resolution of those will have an even harder time sorting out a very complex set up .

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by nick sussex

[shaky]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Not a bad GFS 06 hrs run . Still a lot of uncertainty though with how the troughing develops to the west and how sharp it might be .

Earlier the models disagree with the shortwave between day 4 and 5 . Just been through all 50 ECM ensemble members . Given we’re talking a shortish timeframe they’re all over the place . 

 

Gfs ensembles for leicester have once again flatlined around -5 again for the period 27 and 29th......

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs ensembles for leicester have once again flatlined around -5 again for the period 27 and 29th......

 

Yes that’s due to the less developed shortwave , some initially wanted to phase that with another low to the nw which resulted in a deeper system which pushed milder air ne as that happened . 

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes that’s due to the less developed shortwave , some initially wanted to phase that with another low to the nw which resulted in a deeper system which pushed milder air ne as that happened . 

ICON, JMA and navgem all showing a shallower feature further south, similar to the ECM. We shall see I guess.

 

 

[Tim Bland]

Worth pointing out that in most major towns and cities over the next 7 days temps reach 6-8c so we are talking about temporary slushy coverings at best. I think in any average winter we would hardly be interested, just goes to show how desperate we are this year

[nick sussex]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Worth pointing out that in most major towns and cities over the next 7 days temps reach 6-8c so we are talking about temporary slushy coverings at best. I think in any average winter we would hardly be interested, just goes to show how desperate we are this year

True.  This winter has been abysmal . You’d think it was summer down here , some ridiculous temps over the last few weeks . Last Sunday got to 24c and February has been a disaster for most ski resorts here in the Pyrenees . Cauterets my nearest resort is one of the better ones and has been a bit luckier but even that’s not great .

Thankfully that’s set to change Tuesday into Wednesday and people will be dancing in the streets when some new snow finally arrives.

Most French ski resorts do 60% of their whole annual turnover in the half term holidays February into March so the impact of the wretched Euro limpet high has been massive . 

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by nick sussex

[Zak M]

52 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Worth pointing out that in most major towns and cities over the next 7 days temps reach 6-8c so we are talking about temporary slushy coverings at best. I think in any average winter we would hardly be interested, just goes to show how desperate we are this year

I agree a little bit. The temperatures for the possible snow event on Monday especially in the south will only be around 5c, so if it produces anything, it will probably be some rain or sleet. The snow will be over the hills unfortunately.

Looking at Thursday however, conditions might just be right for snow in the south. It's whether if Tuesday still shows the same runs for Thursday.

Just waiting for the GFS 12z run - hoping there will be an improvement somewhere! 

[SMU]

ICON moves somewhat to the GFS with those nicely curved isolines bringing that airmass closer ( T111 )

[Mike Poole]

ICON with an interesting flow at T180, but uppers (very) marginal - but marginal is probably our best bet now, anyway here's the charts

The important one for me is the jetstream, this is consistent with most modelling now, trending south.  Well winter running down the clock...

So.

One last chase, anyone???!