Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Fair bit of snow there in the east and in Scotland by D8.

 

186-574UK.gif

192-780UK.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Atlantic train running out of puff at 144 on UKMO. Interesting chart if you are hoping for last gasp of Winter early March. (Or should I say first gasp?)

UN144-21.GIF

GFS dragging the cold uppers in from the NE with just a weak ridge able to hold back the Westerlies 

gfs-1-168.pnggfsnh-0-180.png

First gasp.... Let's make No bones about that 

Edited by Snowfish2
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

At last been watching these charts for the past 5 days,awaiting for the Atlantic to finally give up and give us some peace. 

Ensembles paint a picture unfolding.

The 850 hpa charts are impressive for us,  but how we get there is a different story.. the pressure charts, still messy and lacking agreement. A note of caution, the air temp GFS mean is running on the cold sideof the charts. 

 

Winter isn't done yet... Another March 2006 me thinks

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A pretty messy medium term outlook with shortwaves flying all over the  place and these small wedges of heights .

The ECM manages to displace the main PV further north , looking at the mean although not as bullish that’s an improvement on last night suggesting an increase in colder solutions .

I think however we should be wary of any changes shown post day 7 to the PV , it’s still packing a punch and we have seen a bias at the longer range to show some favourable changes which then implode .

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some leading edge snow for the the majority in the Northern half of the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning, with snow showers blowing in from the West Tue/We'd.

1689155417_viewimage-2020-02-23T080932_075.thumb.png.e7f90519bc49ee3a2c20ba4bc2bddf9f.png601922904_viewimage-2020-02-23T081052_131.thumb.png.1941256857fd1f2a6ea29ab33027c9c7.png2022929611_viewimage-2020-02-23T081132_392.thumb.png.2a994da97c18d22650059a61eb8ebaec.png

 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Ah....potential in the ecm day 9 and 10 charts....in fairness these are probably the best couple of charts of the winter as the wedge of high pressure exiting the states at day 5 turns into a tasty Scandi high by day 9 with some very cold air being drawn south and west..

 

ECMOPEU00_216_1-3.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1-10.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some definitive looking ens....finally some winter weather looks nailed....the drop line says yes!! @ooz

Screenshot_20200223-083754.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A cold start to Smarch, anyone? Even some sleet & snow thrown in, for good measure?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And is that? I think it is! It's a nearly ice-day (Bedfordshire) to start Smarch::shok:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

But will it still be there, when the 06Z comes out?:oldlaugh:

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

Edited by Beanz
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

the drop line says yes!! @ooz

What does that mean?? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
19 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

I wouldn't be so sure of that Beanz. I have seen some settling snow on relatively modest hills already this winter down here in Dorset. Totally understand your scepticism though after such a dire winter over all.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
38 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

Going on the last few GFS runs alone, I think there might be wintry showers even at lower levels, but not expecting anything to settle at lower levels, from south of the Midlands, but further possibilities in around a week's time and onwards, but plenty of time for change (for better or for worse). 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Curvature of isolines looking good to sink south again > 120

A1141A96-9509-4DB9-B2B2-F7703813690B.thumb.jpeg.2ffd2d0fd3f40197ea690bfea13706af.jpeg

7 days most likely FI but for fun.. 

winteroverview_20200223_06_150.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, Beanz said:

What does that mean?? 

I wouldn't take too much notice...rough theme looks very disturbed and muddled with somewhat of a jet stream taking a southerly course (in layman's terms).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thurs Snow event beginning to correct slightly south....

6E5C60E9-9FA9-456A-A5E8-8AD8ACD91992.thumb.png.c55b0266d41304b2889aedfe0f939266.png

That's the one I'm looking out for. This winter has been a story of corrections North and flattening the jet as things get into reliable times, but I think the weakening of the jet has begun so corrections are more likely to be southwards with incoming lows now. Thursday has great potential.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
53 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thurs Snow event beginning to correct slightly south....

6E5C60E9-9FA9-456A-A5E8-8AD8ACD91992.thumb.png.c55b0266d41304b2889aedfe0f939266.png

Get in!!! :yahoo:

winter.png

winter0.png

winter1.png

winter2.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I think most areas should at least see some snow falling over the next 7 days. I expect snow men and sledging to be restricted to high ground or North of Leeds though 

1C8C2F91-D969-43F6-A1DF-6B4682E6E8FA.gif

CABF4B56-E25D-40CC-952A-C1FDC32AB15B.gif

660A1668-8E30-4FA0-B29A-43BD805D1719.gif

29F409F8-0FE2-4A11-8C73-C02E9F182F71.gif

DE425D0C-4EC6-493D-957B-46B2BCA92830.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...