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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Surprised this place isn’t a bit busier !

 

People don't want to be led up the garden path, I suppose?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Don said:

People don't want to be led up the garden path, I suppose?

True. Think wedges to our NE is our best bet for now, could see more of a block develop later on in March though. If energy can be pushed SE and we stay in the colder air then some wintry surprises could well be on the cards. It seems to me that Midlands, Wales and places north will do best but you never know.

By late April and into May a substantial Scandi high will most likely establish itself, you wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 0z ensemble mean indicates a very unsettled / disturbed outlook and predominantly rather cold, especially further north with some frost / ice, a few milder interludes across southern uk. I expect some areas will see snow next week, mainly further north and with elevation but even across the south some occasional wintry ness can’t be ruled out but it seems there’s plenty more rain to come for the foreseeable future but probably less windy with time.

9B808596-D525-4369-AB55-3EE988EAAF92.thumb.gif.a2dec9bde9440462e5b26d78c3d09fb7.gif92DAE51F-D9C7-42C1-9F9F-8A5AE5EB118A.thumb.gif.0ee128f96f1951ec86b251c67d9d95a0.gifCB24BC38-9D14-4F7F-9B6D-BEBF96B8B165.thumb.gif.19a6745a43dcf50aaf0df36eaaea2b13.gif980FFB1A-1BBF-42B6-A402-C5BE9AF712A5.thumb.gif.6a0fdf21167a4c961e68c4adf463ccde.gif47B655BB-6DB1-490D-BC30-09E22B97D6EA.thumb.gif.f9c4645bcb053059a4aa0b9522bd93a8.gif4956FC3B-E49B-429A-8CF9-CB4ADE1A56E1.thumb.gif.4de797612f5f61bdfc916457441ae486.gif8DD7B285-7FE0-4BBC-BB85-4A0DE5B33688.thumb.gif.eacbc6bd41c2e25e4a37307663516ad1.gif8F398A8E-A46D-4D23-807C-BBCBCA371D12.thumb.gif.647a99e7188fdf3b5619f2f85da615c7.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
15 minutes ago, Don said:

People don't want to be led up the garden path, I suppose?

I hear you on that Don. My garden path is fortunately as long as the M6 corridor don't want to get ya hopes up mate, but Check out p19... Come to papa!!! The mean remains quite chilly to!! Cold spring anyone!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
On 18/02/2020 at 14:18, igloo said:

Not true I'm in South Western Scotland  granted the southern uplands.had snow a few times this season just last week 10cm for a few days.way better than last season.but still it's way disappointing than decades ago.

Depends where you are, but there's been hee haw here for 2 years. It tries, but it's less and less every year. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Not much to add to what has already been said. The morning ECM 00Z OP certainly looked a chilly run especially for the north with milder incursions further south so not a huge change from what we've seen.

The GFS 06Z OP certainly was a chilly offering - the jet heading south putting us on the cold side of the trough so secondary LP systems crossing the south means more rain and snow to northern hills and especially Scottish mountains. FI goes off on a bit of a tangent so we'll see.

Control, it has to be said, keeps the jet that bit further north - the key, as I said yesterday, is the extent to which the Azores HP ridges into Europe. If said HP is held back in the Atlantic and the LP can move ESE into Europe supported by a build of pressure into Eurasia the trough becomes negatively aligned and we stay on the colder side. If the HP heads into Europe, the alignment goes positive and TM air spreads across the British Isles and into Europe. 

It looks a chilly and unsettled week to come though rain amounts don't look that great which I find surprising given the synoptics.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Pretty much as you were - cold but not excessively so except for a very cold and exceptionally snowy no.19.

image.thumb.png.dda27939c337c77ead0e5cb4449761fc.png

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
ECM chart removed. Wasn't intended by poster.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pretty much as you were - cold but not excessively so except for a very cold and exceptionally snowy no.19.

image.thumb.png.dda27939c337c77ead0e5cb4449761fc.png

 

And about as likely to verify as scoring 19 in a game of cribbage?

Edited by Blessed Weather
Ditto above
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Surprised this place isn’t a bit busier !

In the UK although northern blocking is always the best option for snow these wedges of heights to the n/ne can still provide that .

As long as you stay on the northern side of the jet and any shortwaves which run east se  are quite shallow you can see snow on the northern flank of those .

As I stressed though in my previous post that re amplification upstream is crucial to help direct the energy se which allows any wedge to develop to the n/ne .

Anyway lets see what tonights outputs produce.

Think we're fed up Nick!

This winter is now a write off - looking for warmth now!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Think we're fed up Nick!

This winter is now a write off - looking for warmth now!

Agreed the winter has been a complete write off but March especially early on can still deliver something wintry.

Of course unless we get something outlandish like 2018 then we have to lower expectations as to what can be achieved as we are battling the increase in solar energy.

I understand people are fed up and rightly so . Let’s see what transpires over the next few runs . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The southerners could wake to a covering on snow Wednesday morning according to the Icon.

image.thumb.png.ac9222e62deac433ce36dc2290632446.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
11 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The southerners could wake to a covering on snow Wednesday morning according to the Icon.

image.thumb.png.ac9222e62deac433ce36dc2290632446.png

Well lets hope for something widespread so that everyone can enjoy some snow! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well lets hope for something widespread so that everyone can enjoy some snow! 

And the GFS 12z has this for the SE.

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
37 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The southerners could wake to a covering on snow Wednesday morning according to the Icon.

image.thumb.png.ac9222e62deac433ce36dc2290632446.png

Latest GFS currently showing wintry showers further south and across the UK from Monday through until a week from now. 

 

@snowray got there ahead of me! 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Over the next few days We need to keep an eye on this air mass at day 6 > for its direction of travel > No mega high pressure so CAA will be slow rather than fast > but potential to strike the UK

 

Just thinking that, looks very messy and could be marginal but could potentially be very snowy with a shortwave just stalling over us in around -8c

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Latest GFS currently showing wintry showers further south and across the UK from Monday through until a week from now. 

 

@snowray got there ahead of me! 

Quite a few snow chances in fact, and not exactly in FI la la land either.:oldgood:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Latest GFS currently showing wintry showers further south and across the UK from Monday through until a week from now. 

Indeed.. With the daylight getting longer as well, it's nice being able to watch snowfall in the early evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Very interesting run this - as if there wasn't enough interest by this point already, here is the 5th Feb 96 redux chart.

image.thumb.png.7d05bee42ce2163a57d233000556f064.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes I'm liking this run, at last thank the Lord, who cares if it verifies or not! Just nice to see some eye candy for a change...

Here we go, battleground scenario....

 

 

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Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Just popped in to talk about a possible pattern change early March but see the forum is already all over it. 

Definitely the potential for a block to form to the NE start of March but given how the rest of the winter has panned out one can't have much faith it will materialise.

Carry on...

I'll continue my winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well this afternoon's GFS 12Z is certainly of interest: sleet & snow chances aplenty, over the coming ten days or so -- though who knows when/where?...And that heat is still building, darn saarf, come Day-16!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!:oldlaugh:

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM not particularly inspiring this eve > lots of mobility which negates any chances of that deep cold airmass impacting the UK 

 

Lets hope it sways towards the GFS over the next day or so-

Considering the PV's behaviour and the winter in general, I wouldn't bank on it.  However, yes, lets hope it does follow the GFS very soon!

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