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Model output discussion 02/02/20

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
33 minutes ago, Zak M said:

gfs.thumb.png.28eb6756cf05e1cd0e1343b63f01b0ad.png

Hoping for more charts like this that aren't far away.

It seems a bit marginal for snow, let's hope things improve as you suggest... More runs needed! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted

Looking through the GEFS 6z postage stamps there is certainly increasing potential for snow next week, and not only confined to high ground further north so there may be some in places that haven’t seen a flake yet this winter...fingers crossed!?️

34B7C920-AB54-4BDD-9F4D-CB779C3B78AD.thumb.png.e8d4f56b6d0d8a34b05de6900a0b7d16.pngB46E3E17-0B7D-4833-8BE5-412C1DEB7312.thumb.png.ee51f1265acbc80b73cbb1e86e59022d.png992F04C3-02B9-4937-BE73-5272FF8DDBE4.thumb.png.0e749a13363a00b4817b64e6275498fe.png3B573EE7-64A7-4681-9A09-DC31258F991E.thumb.png.b3ef84c3212b3c91a5379628a68fed5b.png

 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, JON SNOW said:

Looking through the GEFS 6z postage stamps there is certainly increasing potential for snow next week, and not only confined to high ground further north so there may be some in places that haven’t seen a flake yet this winter...fingers crossed!?️

34B7C920-AB54-4BDD-9F4D-CB779C3B78AD.thumb.png.e8d4f56b6d0d8a34b05de6900a0b7d16.pngB46E3E17-0B7D-4833-8BE5-412C1DEB7312.thumb.png.ee51f1265acbc80b73cbb1e86e59022d.png992F04C3-02B9-4937-BE73-5272FF8DDBE4.thumb.png.0e749a13363a00b4817b64e6275498fe.png3B573EE7-64A7-4681-9A09-DC31258F991E.thumb.png.b3ef84c3212b3c91a5379628a68fed5b.png

 

Indeed, I was thinking about posting these charts:

snow.thumb.png.5e25c989295d99a9bc87d7ec7b0f0249.png

snow0.thumb.png.42f757288f1771e9c34a406377df9982.png

snow1.thumb.png.a5d5023649ae034c76b8e6e4f9099e37.png

snow2.thumb.png.7b9d3b0c942ce9ce06c90f83c6657757.png

snow3.thumb.png.edfc1d4bd4470c9e0e1fb759cafb31dc.png

snow4.thumb.png.8e5f0efc1b1e4ba68be6b4e50dcbbac8.png

snow5.thumb.png.8c5b0dd6c4b2f6b9bea4af216c503f3b.png

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Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted
23 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Indeed, I was thinking about posting these charts:

snow.thumb.png.5e25c989295d99a9bc87d7ec7b0f0249.png

snow0.thumb.png.42f757288f1771e9c34a406377df9982.png

snow1.thumb.png.a5d5023649ae034c76b8e6e4f9099e37.png

snow2.thumb.png.7b9d3b0c942ce9ce06c90f83c6657757.png

snow3.thumb.png.edfc1d4bd4470c9e0e1fb759cafb31dc.png

snow4.thumb.png.8e5f0efc1b1e4ba68be6b4e50dcbbac8.png

snow5.thumb.png.8c5b0dd6c4b2f6b9bea4af216c503f3b.png

And some of us still won't if that verifies.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Still interesting next week!!snow showers for western and northen areas!!gfs slides that shortwave  a bit more now at 138 hours compared to 00z and 06z which keeps the colder air in place!!ukmo cold till the end of the run!!hopefully ecm goes back to what it was showing on the 12z yesterday!!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

To be honest, I might not trust any chart that suggests snow if it is within 5 days. If you trust a chart which shows snow and it's on day 6 onwards then it will just change. I can name way too many examples of this happening. In fact, this happens every week.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Obviously this won't verify, but the GFS is still showing some cold arctic air arriving from the north on day 8 - as it has so in its last 2-3 runs.

cold.png

cold0.png

cold1.png

cold2.png

cold3.png

cold4.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Tuesday and Saturday all be it both briefly are showing on the latest run as being a bit more wintery, but not great for the south east, agreed sceptical about anything beyond mid week, but plenty of time for it to all turn milder! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

winteroverview_20200221_12_192.jpg

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Tuesday and Saturday all be it both briefly are showing on the latest run as being a bit more wintery, but not great for the south east, agreed sceptical about anything beyond mid week, but plenty of time for it to all turn milder! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

winteroverview_20200221_12_192.jpg

I think the snow will only be for the north unfortunately. The south will probably at most see some sleet.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Three GFS ops in a row have displaced the limpet Euro high to the west/nw after day ten .

They seem to be finding more upstream amplification but we’ve been here before !

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

This wave would almost secure a cold first half of March

I wonder if March could be the coldest month of all 4 !

EDE40B33-A228-4B9F-9815-8E6E59C4946A.thumb.png.4f48b754d089e13c9efe0b1eb670bf89.png

I didn't see that coming, a nice birthday present!  

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Once again any amplification shown bites the dust . The pattern now becoming flatter with every run .

Even crumbs aren’t being thrown out now to close winter with at least something resembling that season .

Clearly the models are underestimating the PV at the medium range and so we see some temporary amplified solutions before reality hits .

The GFS 06 hrs now onto another likely wild goose chase in its FI .

 

Right on cue on the 12z! - won't post the chart as Steve has already beaten me to it.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

12z GFS ends severely cold with a biting NE wind.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Right on cue on the 12z! - won't post the chart as Steve has already beaten me to it.

There’s nothing going on re background signals that give any support to this new found amplification.

The only remote possibility is the fiasco over the MJO . There appears to be an issue with the RMM forecasts and current positioning of the signal.

And this then feeds into the debate over what measure is best used to indicate what it’s likely to do .

Some measures suggest it’s already in a lowish amplitude phase 7 and heading towards phase 8 , others have it marooned in the COD .

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

12z GFS ends severely cold with a biting NE wind.

Indeed it does, feb:oldgood:...And look at those uppers (26C?) building down south! :shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z shows some mild/warm and settled weather on day 16. 

It is also along with a plume of cold air stretching very far south into Spain and further (that I think @feb1991blizzard is on about)

warm.png

warm0.png

warm1.png

warm2.png

Edited by Zak M
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Just in case those not very au fait with model outputs and how they get interpreted, the deep cold and warmth commented on in two posts above are for SIXTEEN days ahead. Fun to drool or get upset over but in terms of them occurring less than our Prime Minister doing the full deal on Brexit in the time scale he suggests!

Sorry about the politics.

Edited by johnholmes
missed word
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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

I think the snow will only be for the north unfortunately. The south will probably at most see some sleet.

  indeed you’re right the snow will only be for northern hills I have to say this is Exeter thought to  southern areas most likely rain  

image.png

image.jpeg

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Probably the first chart this winter that I have seen that actually shows the fabled Thames Streamer kicking in on an ENEly. Oh well we can dream.:oldrolleyes:

gfs-0-384.thumb.png.1c0ee62131991b51eb0d749f3e4e7a1a.png

gfs-1-384.thumb.png.8c4d61bf0613be79ee18a9f532a22b3a.png

gfs-2-384.thumb.png.481ee3122de2434af5c13cf5df936118.png

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Probably the first chart this winter that I have seen that actually shows the fabled Thames Streamer kicking in on an ENEly. Oh well we can dream.:oldrolleyes:

gfs-0-384.thumb.png.1c0ee62131991b51eb0d749f3e4e7a1a.png

gfs-1-384.thumb.png.8c4d61bf0613be79ee18a9f532a22b3a.png

gfs-2-384.thumb.png.481ee3122de2434af5c13cf5df936118.png

 

wish it was 30th Jan to 1st Feb, when I was down there

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

and i tajke it the ecm is not very good for cold as no comments on it?

The uppers are pretty bog standard and the NW flows are brief put it that way.

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