Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Frosty.]

Just had a look at the GEFS 6z postage stamps and they show an increasing chance  of snow as next week progresses, especially from midweek which was also the case with the 0z... could next week turn into the best period of the winter so far for cold / snow starved coldies?...everything crossed!!

Edited February 20, 2020 by JON SNOW

[johnholmes]

We are are now Thursday 20th, some 9 days on and the anomaly charts, well two of them, if not suggesting a major wave change do show the source for the continued Atlantic domination, to be mostly Pm more so than for quite a long time for the UK, rather than occasionally for more northern area. That said the NOAA view is still not quite the same. For instance EC-GFS suggests heights over the UK in the range 540 DM and below with the flow just N of west. NOAA has the flow westerly and heights are about 6 DM higher. Similar other than the flow direction I suppose.

For what it is worth the 00Z and 06Z GFS output shows Pm air from around 120-240 hours. Looking to ECMWF over the same time scale and it is not greatly different from this, a bit less markedly Pm but not vastly different.

Looking at UK Met Fax charts and the T+120 is the possible chart that illustrates on the surface the system to set up this pattern. Indeed their upper air charts (along with surface charts) for the following 24-48 hours are similar to the two models so far discussed.

Taking these sets of data does suggest, to me, that a colder still unsettled outlook is about to start, say post T+72, and last for several days. Details of what you all, (well mostly), want will be for the synoptic models to try and show. Still quite windy at times and still further water to add to the severe issues for many areas already suffering but possibly not as severe as the last few days.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

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UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

[Zak M]

The GEM (in which I got told by many people is a trustworthy model) is also showing a cold spell next week... 

[Cloud-9]

It seems to me looking at the models over the past few weeks that we are indeed completely stuck now with this barrage and bombardment of wind, rain, wind, rain, storms ad nausium. 

Am i the only one who feels that this long passage of low pressure systems hurtling across the Atlantic for such a sustained period is very unusual - even for the UK? - taking into account it is (albeit late) winter. I can see no end to this for weeks (or even longer). Is this so unusual?

As an interested model watcher do any of you see any correlation to the dreaded 'Climate Change' ?

 

[Zak M]

Brrr... 

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The GEM (in which I got told by many people is a trustworthy model) is also showing a cold spell next week... 

Cold and wet, I can’t get too excited I’ll be honest...  

[Met.]

45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Brrr... 

More like

[Zak M]

Just now, Thundershine said:

More like

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

I'm optimistic of a half decent weekend here in  S Wales and also across S England with that higher pressure just about edging in from France on the GFS 12z

Edited February 20, 2020 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Griff]

A variation on a theme so far on the latest GFS, suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere... 

[shaky]

Another cold and wintry gfs for next week!!finally something to look forward to!!a bit late but better than nothing!

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Another cold and wintry gfs for next week!!finally something to look forward to!!a bit late but better than nothing!

Larger cold pool to the NW, but is it cold enough? 

Edit.... Actually yes, perhaps! 

So no guarantees and might be marginal away from the north, but a trend in the right direction. 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Griff

[Zak M]

Now that's more like it!!! 

[nick sussex]

All eyes to the big eastern USA storm .

What that does will dictate what happens in Europe . You can see the difference downstream from that storm by comparing the earlier GFS 06 hrs run with the later 12 hrs run .

The flatter track out into the sea off the ne seaboard of the USA means flatter downstream  , more inland more amplified which the 12hrs has.

Any ridging ahead will topple but the best outcome is any ridge gets far enough north so the jet cuts back into the UK as that happens .

Will be interesting to see whether any of the GEFS can add even more amplitude upstream .

[Anthony Burden]

Looking more likely from the charts on a wintery next week with snow possible not just restricted to 

the north and high ground.The south may get it’s first sight of the white stuff just when everybody was 

giving up,never say die.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

A variation on a theme so far on the latest GFS, suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere... 

There's no building of heights over Greenland on them charts.  Just a little amplification.

You need yellow colours for higher heights.

Edited February 20, 2020 by joggs

[Griff]

Just now, joggs said:

There's no building of heights over Greenland on them charts.  Just a little amplification.

"suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere..."

 

[joggs]

Just now, Griff said:

"suggestion of a building of heights out over greenland, interesting to see if that goes anywhere..."

 

Sorry. No suggestion of it either.

[Mike Poole]

To be honest I'm not getting the vibe, comparison of the 12z suite at T144:

GEM by far the best for cold, but even then, T850s:

Trying to interpret the op models, I'm not sure where the amplification that some are seeing is coming from, MJO is deceased:

Strat vortex is still as strong as nails both now and T240:

 

I think the winter from hell will indeed continue to beyond the cutoff date of 29th Feb. And something wintry may affect some places in spring, but for us in the south, it would never amount to much, and we'd like some sunny and settled weather.

Finally, good to see you back posting, Karl!

[tight isobar]

Can't post the ens at the min..but some notable clustering gathering... Beyond the drop line....winter seems to be saving itself ....with perhaps a sting?!

Edited February 20, 2020 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

To be honest I'm not getting the vibe, comparison of the 12z suite at T144:

GEM by far the best for cold, but even then, T850s:

Trying to interpret the op models, I'm not sure where the amplification that some are seeing is coming from, MJO is deceased:

Strat vortex is still as strong as nails both now and T240:

 

I think the winter from hell will indeed continue to beyond the cutoff date of 29th Feb. And something wintry may affect some places in spring, but for us in the south, it would never amount to much, and we'd like some sunny and settled weather.

Finally, good to see you back posting, Karl!

There plenty of corrective data plots awaiting 1  thinks...and rekonin with upper air spreads b4 3days out is not necessary mike. ..as for the mjo..I've opted out with that 1 weeks back!

Edited February 20, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There plenty of corrective data plots awaiting 1  thinks...and rekonin with upper air spreads beyond 3days out is not necessary mike. ..as for the mjo..I've opted out with that 1 weeks back!

Well TI, I will await the corrective data plots with interest, and hopefully a snowflake or two to boot!!

We clearly agree re the MJO, but almost everything else favouring snow is in my view polishing the proverbial, at the moment anyway...

 

[Djdazzle]

Next week’s charts would hardly get a mention in most winters. It’s looking colder, but anyone getting excited re significant snow will likely be disappointed, unless they live in the north or have some altitude.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well TI, I will await the corrective data plots with interest, and hopefully a snowflake or two to boot!!

We clearly agree re the MJO, but almost everything else favouring snow is in my view polishing the proverbial, at the moment anyway...

 

The updated March forecast for the USA issued today by NOAA talks quite a lot about the MJO which was surprising .

And they seem to think it’s heading for the Western Hemisphere, even more surprising given that current forecasts bar the CFS don’t look interested at all in even taking it out of the COD.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The updated March forecast for the USA issued today by NOAA talks quite a lot about the MJO which was surprising .

And they seem to think it’s heading for the Western Hemisphere, even more surprising given that current forecasts bar the CFS don’t look interested at all in even taking it out of the COD.

Even when COD is mentioned...I refuse personally anymore to bother with its plots...I've noticed on microscale it's insignificant....and tbh...even in masscale on a higher percentage. And being a miniscule maritime northern hemisphere island...I've decided to put it out for the bin men!!!! All imo (above)

Edited February 20, 2020 by tight isobar