Model output discussion 02/02/20

[igloo]

1 hour ago, rossco89 said:

So has South western Scotland, two winters so far and not a single day of laying snow between them. It's becoming very common to have a winter and no snow now. 

Not true I'm in South Western Scotland  granted the southern uplands.had snow a few times this season just last week 10cm for a few days.way better than last season.but still it's way disappointing than decades ago.

Edited February 18, 2020 by igloo

[Griff]

Got some time off this week and next and eager for some (imaginary) excitement... 

I might throw in the words 'looking a bit more amplified' to justify my post, obvs it will change again on the next run... 

[Griff]

So a different evolution from the previous run, but nevertheless ends up in a similar place with tantalisingly close easterlies before very mild FI... I might as well read some tea leafs, probably more likely to support my anaemic hunt for last gasp winter... 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Griff

[Methuselah]

A slight westward correction, and it'll be a lazy Sunday afternoon...Rinky dinky do, rinky dinky dido!

     

[Ols500]

whens spring lol

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

whens spring lol

11 days time.....

[NewEra21]

Still something to keep coldies hopes alive just a little longer

[Liam J]

Another very unsettled run from the ECM this evening. 
 
Worrying times ahead for the flood hit areas with more rain to add to the water levels, along with gales or severe gales. 

 

The very intense Polar Vortex is breaking records atm. 

The jet stream remains in overdrive! 

 

[Zak M]

This run will likely not verify, but it's nice to look at! 

[mb018538]

The whole picture is just desperately poor still. Barring a rubbish brief NW incursion it’s just business as usual. More flooding to come in areas that don’t need it. Let’s just look for some spring warmth, at least we might find some...

[Zak M]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The whole picture is just desperately poor still. Barring a rubbish brief NW incursion it’s just business as usual. More flooding to come in areas that don’t need it. Let’s just look for some spring warmth, at least we might find some...

It's on its way!! 

[Gowon]

The GEM is the best in terms of cold potential.. again, slightly more amplified at day 10 then the other two.

At day 10 we can clearly see it's more amplified around north Atlantic and southern Greenland area. 

 

 

[Methuselah]

Why has no-one wheeled out the mighty NAVGEM yet? And whatever's happened to the ICON?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This must be one of the quietest periods I've known on here... Hardly surprising though! Basically more rain in the offing over the next few days... Not good for river levels, I happened to drive through Bridgnorth earlier, and the river seven was literally overflowing some of the roads!! My heart goes out to all of you who are having possessions ruined by these Conditions. Hopefully something a bit drier for the weekend. Going further, we have very mild uppers from ECM by day 5,then a couple of days later we have much colder Conditions!! So it's floods, barbecue, then get ya sledge waxed a couple of days later.... According to the mighty GFS that is... Onwards and upwards. 

[SMU]

London hasnt seen the -8c isotherm since the last day of Feb 2018.

18z just scrapes under 2 years.

[nobble]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

London hasnt seen the -8c isotherm since the last day of Feb 2018.

18z just scrapes under 2 years.

Something to build on ?

[Griff]

Spectacular mild in another deep FI near miss, all roads lead to Rome, well in this case they take you really near by and then straight to Vesuvius. A bit like Ryan Air, you think you're going somewhere but the destination seems deceptively close, but not close enough!  

[Zak M]

Morning all!

Had a bit of a surprise yesterday when I saw my first ever thunderstorm of 2020. It was one over Leicester! Was quite a show to behold!

The GFS and other models are going for a nice, settled, and possibly warm start to March, as they have been for the past 5+ runs. It's good news for the warm lovers, but bad news for the cold lovers!

I think the people who love cold weather and snow will get what they deserve this winter. I think there won't be any major snow outbreaks, but I think there will be at least one event where some snow has actually settled onto the ground.

Unfortunately for the cold lovers, no major snow events look likely yet, especially if you live in the south.

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Morning all!

Had a bit of a surprise yesterday when I saw my first ever thunderstorm of 2020. It was one over Leicester! Was quite a show to behold!

The GFS and other models are going for a nice, settled, and possibly warm start to March, as they have been for the past 5+ runs. It's good news for the warm lovers, but bad news for the cold lovers!

I think the people who love cold weather and snow will get what they deserve this winter. I think there won't be any major snow outbreaks, but I think there will be at least one event where some snow has actually settled onto the ground.

Unfortunately for the cold lovers, no major snow events look likely yet, especially if you live in the south.

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

A very positive post. Thanks but you had to add the bit especially those living in The south (which is a fair old number of Us). It never ceases to amaze me that for an island the size we are, how annoyingly variable it is with its weather..... Scotland gets plastered whereby we miss altogether blah blah blah.... Gfs shows more promise at the end of its run but its FI once again and unlikely to verify. 

Edited February 19, 2020 by Snowfish2

[West is Best]

The Atlantic onslaught continues. It's now virtually certain that I shall witness my first ever snowless winter. Not even a flake from the sky.

The briefest flirtation from ECM is soon snuffed out.

 

With the jet this powerful there's nothing that's going to stand in the westerly way. A remarkable February but, for most of us, for all the wrong reasons.

 

[karlos1983]

7 hours ago, Zak M said:

.

 

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

Hmmm, most snow events happen in late Feb/March aided by a weakened PV, that’s not looking likely anytime soon. It’s highly probable this year’s breakdown will be a late one given the strength of that beastly PV! 

northwesterly colder than normal airflow seems our only straws to clutch on this winter. Don’t worry though, next winter ️

 

[mb018538]

Looks like staying pretty unsettled for a while longer yet, with temps above average on the whole:




Western & Northern areas - and in particular Scotland - could face some more disastrous flooding in the next week/10 days, with 4-6 inches more rain forecast:



Remarkable strong vortex holding out very close to or above record strength at times right out into the first week of March:



Forget it folks. We're done for here. RIP 'winter' 2019/2020.

[Tim Bland]

GEM is the only run worth an eye brow raise this morning ...

[winterof79]

Gfs has snow opportunities for Midlands north

[tcc]

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)