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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The GEM still wants to push the vortex over to Scandinavia and Russia..

image.thumb.png.2adc8dbe73012be3296f32a7500102ac.png

We just need the ridge to build up to Greenland now.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From the state of the 12Z GEFS SLP/T850 ensembles, things are far from straightforward!:help:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

For the next week pretty low stakes for those south of the border but for Scotland it’s on a knife edge depending on the track and depth of two shortwaves which run east .

Snow is possible on the northern flank of those . The ECM keeps those shallow which is a big help .

Could turn out very interesting for those in Scotland , equally they could develop more and track further north which would just deliver rain .

The risk could extend further south into northern England, pretty small changes in the jet position make a big difference in these set ups .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, KTtom said:

I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-6.png

A lot depends on the behaviour of that storm across the eastern USA. Both the ECM and GFS have this around day ten . That needs to amplify to help ridging ahead to get further north .

I’ve lost count though of the amount of day ten ECM ops this winter which show promise and then implode by the next morning .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A lot depends on the behaviour of that storm across the eastern USA. Both the ECM and GFS have this around day ten . That needs to amplify to help ridging ahead to get further north .

I’ve lost count though of the amount of day ten ECM ops this winter which show promise and then implode by the next morning .

 

Agreed, but some support from gfs a couple of days later?

 

GFSOPEU12_312_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

For the next week pretty low stakes for those south of the border but for Scotland it’s on a knife edge depending on the track and depth of two shortwaves which run east .

Snow is possible on the northern flank of those . The ECM keeps those shallow which is a big help .

Could turn out very interesting for those in Scotland , equally they could develop more and track further north which would just deliver rain .

The risk could extend further south into northern England, pretty small changes in the jet position make a big difference in these set ups .

 

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
17 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

You’re not wrong!  Just like much of Europe in fact.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Dennis said:

remember this one...

 

.

Yes - the 240 mean looked a bit better tonight - that it might have a more potent Northerly cluster.

EDIT  oh thats the 0z though

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good morning everyone!

The GFS has not been showing any interest in anything at the moment, apart from the beginning of March being under the influence of high pressure and some settled weather with temps into the low teens.

Today is almost like a repeat of yesterday, with a trough settling over the UK. As so, heavy scattered showers will be present, perhaps with hail and thunder, moving across the British Isles. These showers will fall as sleet/snow if they come in contact with any hilly areas in the north.

I also noticed between 15:00 and 20:00 that a band of more organised showers/downpours moving in. This will most likely not be a squall line but it can bring some strong winds.

tuesday15.thumb.png.d2f651f5885fb2a17c20cd8ee6127fee.pngtuesday16.thumb.png.c84eba5659dbf17255027ce2c81ae653.pngtuesday17.thumb.png.355955a130a0aae7d870f3431b2a52ca.pngtuesday18.thumb.png.044a1f82e9b934300597d350f3afefc4.png

tuesday19.thumb.png.ce64e68bc5ba6ba1840c6a35ce2f0cd0.pngtuesday20.thumb.png.5c79b66144be4d89aa80c92d721116a4.pngtuesday21.thumb.png.5556f217df90edf96abc693d9ae33226.pngtuesday22.thumb.png.6955b34533ff7c400e26a2912a75bf91.png

tuesday.thumb.png.ded4234b800fc2c2eca787df20f6aded.pngtuesday0.thumb.png.0b3ce09b22c772863bd78e2a316d7376.pngtuesday1.thumb.png.73e65e29532fd663dc9f5d95af027690.pngtuesday2.thumb.png.8ad32f975393aa54e6a4b1be072642c1.png

tuesday3.thumb.png.56ca8cc13f624e141e17eafb852e53e2.pngtuesday4.thumb.png.713e1984b1faede4fddcc8250630da03.pngtuesday5.thumb.png.69d43db7804b43a830b9b931d72778fe.pngtuesday6.thumb.png.2377207be56aa82a27e8f199dc5cde7a.png

tuesday7.thumb.png.c3d847e0d7bad141d9eb8e2214b550c5.pngtuesday8.thumb.png.d63897f1c102c0f3606b4b2fff33a6c3.pngtuesday9.thumb.png.74c5e36b4f0a53d9c462bb4bf3c0fb09.pngtuesday10.thumb.png.37b856b9b6f049dd45a2230b6ff38d16.png

tuesday11.thumb.png.afc149de41cbca6d5e98966973280e73.pngtuesday12.thumb.png.51c7979b45d7fd3146e761b24edd201a.pngtuesday13.thumb.png.fc34dbb3fc4528c80b9aedd43c5076dd.pngtuesday14.thumb.png.5f494023ebbc9da213c82ffbbb4158d2.png

Enjoy the rest of the morning everyone!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Morning peeps...I'm still looking past the current nastiness and seeing hopes of a drying-out spell:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But it's not a done deal...Not yet!

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

And, with that, it's off to the farm I go!?‍?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM - every time it looks like Arctic air is primed to flood south, a little spoiler low pops up and it just ends up Polar Maritime air and just below average temps with wintry showers in the North over high ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

Those charts are for spring and to be honest I’m ready for some warmth now, terrible winter for cold and snow fans

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Well, there is some good news for the coldies!

Latest GFS run is now showing some arctic air visiting the UK from the north on day 8...

cold.thumb.png.a6ac14289ef71d9cb56382313a2e3e67.pngcold0.thumb.png.3684d9347cbd0297e80ee4eb41aab75b.pngcold1.thumb.png.007f4b3fc123952ee20134db2d9cb714.pngcold2.thumb.png.93958aa01191d120c11df86d6c40659d.png

...followed by another plume of arctic air on days 10 and 11 with a pretty deep low associated with it!

cold3.thumb.png.7fae6ee9132c1c13f0bde3a491798010.pngcold4.thumb.png.598921d6352138dac834ff1c6287fe05.pngcold5.thumb.png.04285bd1893017f2ffb4a4e572c5bc93.png

And then at the beginning of March, the GFS is still showing that plume of more milder air and settled weather over the UK. Notice how far down that plunge of cold air is over Europe? That would of impacted the UK on days 10 and 11!

cold6.thumb.png.c19c8171600e94906a1b0fa6e76c5ad6.pngcold7.thumb.png.2b7fd2493a9fff2be90ce4ea250108fd.pngcold8.thumb.png.53787355f7f5c46d1880cd00e10ce4fc.pngcold9.thumb.png.3832c03c84db352e0192fe4ad7347cc1.png

And after that plume of more milder and settled air, look what's taking place in the Atlantic!! 

cold10.thumb.png.1683b84804c1cde9c02f5fd82505757e.pngcold11.thumb.png.b2ab83b1e5348aa5dcdc632a5d9ab6b5.pngcold12.thumb.png.56c98387971d15f11faa2efd9c99b98d.png

Plenty of interesting showing now on the GFS. Cold/snow fans might actually get the weather that they need! 

Have a good afternoon everyone!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Well it is the GFS!!...wouldn't hang my hat on that, ECM not going with it and the way things have been going this winter would know what model to trust.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just when you think this pathetic apology of a winter couldn’t get any worse we see these charts, I know it’s in the far reaches of FI but what are the odds of these verifying above the lovely cold ones we saw a couple of runs ago!!!

22DE327D-4452-49AD-90C7-66302B9C76C1.png

1F4C7374-6276-429D-9450-C7F096FD68C4.png

Given how the first half of March normally is, I’d welcome that with open arms after what we’ve endured. Somehow I don’t think it would be very prolonged until that AO drops significantly but any dry interludes are most welcome.

Later into March might be better for a dry settled spell. Nothing scientific there, just a tendency after Atlantic dominated winters.

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I applaud Zak's optimism and analysis   However like Froze says it doesn't have much support and is likely to be one of many scenarios in a chaotic and mixed ensemble set. You would think at some point the cards would fall favourably for a cold shot and more widespread snow but there isn't really anything to support that notion, with a continuation of changeable and unsettled conditions the form horse and any snow restricted to transient events for northern areas and hills.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

GFS has been indicating a cold Northwesterly shot around 26th Feb for some days now.

I'm not holding my breath because it doesn't really result in snow for much of the UK and doesn't currently have great support from other models.

Nevertheless with a bit of an upgrade it could deliver something Wintry

 

spacer.pngGFS 6z @ 192

 

spacer.pngProjected Uppers at 192

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Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
  • Location: Dalrymple, Ayrshire, Scotland
14 hours ago, Snowfish2 said:

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

So has South western Scotland, two winters so far and not a single day of laying snow between them. It's becoming very common to have a winter and no snow now. 

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