Model output discussion 02/02/20

[KTtom]

Maybe some interest next week as colder uppers start to filter south...both gfs and ecm have this little feature crossing the uk wrapped in sub -5 uppers...no doubt the track will change slightly run to run but could be some signicant snow on its northern side..

 

[West is Best]

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

[Weather-history]

54 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

February 1990, 1997 and 2002 comes to mind

 

Hope ECM 0z is not correct. Look at those 240hr rainfall totals for areas that don't need it.

[Methuselah]

Well folks, all I can do is to try and look past the current very unsettled synoptics and hope for something better...and this, in the unlikely event that it were to verify, would certainly be better!

    

[Tim Bland]

GEM is probably best case scenario. :

[BlueHedgehog074]

37 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well folks, all I can do is to try and look past the current very unsettled synoptics and hope for something better...and this, in the unlikely event that it were to verify, would certainly be better!

    

Have to admit, would choose that High Pressure chart over the constant train and soggy weather the Atlantic Lows been unleashing apon us! Just need to find the Tardis and jump a few weeks into the future to Spring. (With the way this Winter’s behaving, that’s the only thing that is appealing right now lol).

That GEM chart Tim Bland posted does look interesting for having more of an Arctic Maritime influence from the North for the UK. Winter probably will snatch it away as usual. But guess we’ll find out whether it’s being too amplified, or whether the ECMWF and GFS are being a little bit flat with the outcome, at the moment. 

In the closer timeframe, it looks like a further continuation of the mobile, Atlantic, Westerly theme with varying cooler and milder periods. And further spells of wind, showers and rain, some wintry over Northern hills at times. Best of the milder conditions towards the South-East, particularly later into this week as High Pressure rocks about to the South/South-East of the UK:

South-Eastern areas generally tending to see the best of the brighter less unsettled conditions too.

The strong blue and purples to the North and North-West of the UK (Polar Vortex) together with the strong heights to the South, bringing quite a strong Jetstream through the UK encouraging a strong, Westerly, active pattern.

Today and tomorrow though will be will be quite chilly for all, as a cool, showery, Westerly flow dominates:

The airmass, especially at the 850 hPa temperature level for Northern areas, looks cold enough for showers to have some wintry flavour to them. But most likely over the Northern High ground. Perhaps a few flakes reaching some lower levels across the North.

The chilly theme looking to last into Wednesday:

 

...although some rain, possibly with some leading edge sleet and snow on high ground over Northern UK, looks to spill in from the West later into the morning and early afternoon.

 

Edited February 17, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding extra bit

[coldwinter]

45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is probably best case scenario. :

Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop! 

[Zak M]

The GFS hints some more settled and milder air to take place at the start of March.

Look what's happening over there in NE America. Imagine if that was over the UK!

[Tim Bland]

36 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop! 

Possibly, but worth noting that for the majority of this season GEM has been outperforming the GFS, hence why I put more faith in it than the GFS ...

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, West is Best said:

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

Totally agree...when the Atlantic should be somewhat quieter and we get this, a complete conveyor belt.

[Methuselah]

Well peeps, improvements from Day 10????

    

    

    

    

    

Anyone heading for The Canary Islands? @Bristle boy?

Edited February 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well peeps, improvements from Day 10????

Anyone heading for The Canary Islands? @Bristle boy?

Yep late March, for quite a long stay.

Interestingly the Canaries, this last couple of months, have finally bucked their cool-Winter run of last 3 years. It's been warmer, of late, compared to last few winters, according to friends over there. Here's hoping for temps into mid-20s by late March. Would welcome a dry, warm start to Spring here.

[Polar Maritime]

Some wintry showers blowing in over the next 48hrs for the spine of the county and the North.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Hooray GFS 6z has a high 1025mb across S Wales & S England this weekend so no torrential rain/thunder or gales for a change ️

Edited February 17, 2020 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[SLEETY]

Any reason why gfs keeps throwing out mild outliers ,when their are plenty of colder runs in the pack?

Maybe because it hasn’t a clue is my opinion.

Junk of a model sometimes as well.

[Radiating Dendrite]

19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Any reason why gfs keeps throwing out mild outliers ,when their are plenty of colder runs in the pack?

Maybe because it hasn’t a clue is my opinion.

Junk of a model sometimes as well.

Assume if it was showing a cold run then it would no longer be junk in your eyes?

Every month this winter has been above average, so I would tend to lean towards a mild FI being more likely to be correct than a cold one. 

[Zak M]

I think next week will be an interesting week in terms of model watching, with the potential of more Atlantic storms and models suggesting plumes of mild air with settled conditions, and other models suggesting plumes of cold air with unsettled conditions.

Some things I have my eye on is what could happen at the end of February. I decided to have a look at the GFS (as I barely look at any other models ) showing the seal level pressure. Some people think that more storms are on their way, and technically, there is a yes, and there is a no.

Because this is still a long way out, this are likely to change or will change. 

So first off, a deep area of low pressure on day 9 is out in the Atlantic. The jet stream that is powering along the low doesn't look as strong compared to recent ones.

The low takes a direct hit as Scotland, resulting in pretty windy conditions over there.

 

And then on days 14, 15 and 16, another low pressure system develops in the Atlantic. Currently by the looks of it, it won't directly hit the UK, although stormy conditions are possible in northern parts.

 

This possible storm is being powered by a very strong jet stream too:

An interesting week to come!

Edited February 17, 2020 by Zak M

[Methuselah]

Doesn't look particularly warm to me; neither does it look like a true outlier...Just a wee bit random, as one might expect for a transitional period?

   

[SLEETY]

15 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Assume if it was showing a cold run then it would no longer be junk in your eyes?

Every month this winter has been above average, so I would tend to lean towards a mild FI being more likely to be correct than a cold one. 

If it was a cold outlier going down to minus 20  hpa then of course it would be correct 

[Yarmy]

10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Doesn't look particularly warm to me; neither does it look like a true outlier...Just a wee bit random, as one might expect for a transitional period?

   

That 960mb member though...

Presumably lower still in some areas. That would blow away the cobwebs. And most of the British Isles.

[PiscesStar]

56 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I think next week will be an interesting week in terms of model watching, with the potential of more Atlantic storms and models suggesting plumes of mild air with settled conditions, and other models suggesting plumes of cold air with unsettled conditions.

Some things I have my eye on is what could happen at the end of February. I decided to have a look at the GFS (as I barely look at any other models ) showing the seal level pressure. Some people think that more storms are on their way, and technically, there is a yes, and there is a no.

Because this is still a long way out, this are likely to change or will change. 

So first off, a deep area of low pressure on day 9 is out in the Atlantic. The jet stream that is powering along the low doesn't look as strong compared to recent ones.

The low takes a direct hit as Scotland, resulting in pretty windy conditions over there.

 

And then on days 14, 15 and 16, another low pressure system develops in the Atlantic. Currently by the looks of it, it won't directly hit the UK, although stormy conditions are possible in northern parts.

 

This possible storm is being powered by a very strong jet stream too:

An interesting week to come!

Couldn't be more of a direct hit if it tried.... That's a sign of a lot more wind and rain if ever I saw one

[Nick F]

Well it looks like MJO won't give us an help with regards to helping with a pattern change. GFS/GEFS started off going through at decent amplitude through 7 and towards 8, but last few days has headed closer and closer to COD - where ECM has been resolutely residing all along.

With the Polar Vortex looking to stay strong over the arctic, AO looks like having another peak at +6 on the index, then there is no impetus for blocking at high enough latitude to bring cold and wintry weather other than brief cold shots from the NW or N over the next few weeks IMO.

So, more of the same that we've had the last couple of weeks or more, though hopefully with less prolonged rainfall!

[Guest Delete Me]

4 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep late March, for quite a long stay.

Interestingly the Canaries, this last couple of months, have finally bucked their cool-Winter run of last 3 years. It's been warmer, of late, compared to last few winters, according to friends over there. Here's hoping for temps into mid-20s by late March. Would welcome a dry, warm start to Spring here.

Fuerteventura has seen a good February so far, much better than recent winters and better than some summers!

Anyway going back on topic I think the rest of Feb will play out as a north.south divide between warmer/dryer and cooler/wetter. 

I can't see the Atlantic losing out but I also don't think its got as much power as the past 2 weeks.

[Methuselah]

I'm nae too bothered about temps, so long as it's drier...I'll take this though!

    

And this:

    

Edited February 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[Zak M]

Yep. GFS is now signalling more settled and mild weather for the start of March.

Summer arrived early didn't it?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Zak M