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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
14 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just me then tonight? 

Anyone else for some clutching at straws? FI starting to hold interest... 

gfsnh-0-258.png

The AO dropping is a good thing but the GFS blew it earlier by blowing up the shortwave which then runs ne forcing the Euro high further north .

We don’t want any upstream amplification till after that shortwave which is to the west of the UK at day 7 is clearing through the UK . Otherwise that just brings the Euro high ne .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
8 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The AO dropping is a good thing but the GFS blew it earlier by blowing up the shortwave which then runs ne forcing the Euro high further north .

We don’t want any upstream amplification till after that shortwave which is to the west of the UK at day 7 is clearing through the UK . Otherwise that just brings the Euro high ne .

 

And knowing our luck thats where it will end up  

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How's that for a northerly, ensemble 6

 

GFSP06EU00_288_1.pngGFSP06EU00_288_2.png

A bit of support from the Canadian Model below at 240T. Sort of heading towards the above longer term evolution, especially if the Mid - Atlantic high could link with the Greenland high. That would  let in a potent Northerly straight from the Greenland Sea , where 850mb temps are modelled at -25c by 28th February. Of course plotting this route to some real cold may well disappear into dream land for us many cold lovers going by the way this rotten mild winter has turned out.In the meanwhile some amazing high temps expected in the heart of Ode to be Joy land today.

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Apart from the signal (or is it regression to the mean?) for things becoming more 'average' with time, it looks as if the current unsettled spell is set to continue...? GFS 06Z at T+384:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

However, lest one get accused of 'clutching at straws' or 'hopecasting', I'm suggesting neither 'Snowmageddon, as in perturbation-X' nor 'Barbecue Spring, as in perturbation-Y'...Just a gradual return to normality...:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Apart from the signal (or is it regression to the mean?) for things becoming more 'average' with time, it looks as if the current unsettled spell is set to continue...? GFS 06Z at T+384:

 

However, lest one get accused of 'clutching at straws' or 'hopecasting', I'm suggesting neither 'Snowmageddon, as in perturbation-X' nor 'Barbecue Spring, as in perturbation-Y'...Just a gradual return to normality...:oldgood:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

image.thumb.png.2fe9e151ebfe2763983c3437a9763bac.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

image.thumb.png.2fe9e151ebfe2763983c3437a9763bac.png

Yes Feb there as been quite a bit of noise from those ensembles for a few days now, and I like how that mean is on the fall. Could we salvage something come months end!! The one I'm posting.... Well let's just say I nearly choked on me bran flakes..

gens-4-0-252.png

gens-4-0-276.png

gens-4-0-300.png

gens-4-0-312.png

gens-4-0-336.png

gens-4-1-312.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

image.thumb.png.2fe9e151ebfe2763983c3437a9763bac.png

Quite encouraging snow % from 24th onwards ! Which location are these for please?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Quite encouraging snow % from 24th onwards ! Which location are these for please?

Either Somewhere in Northern England or slap bang in Central England, they were the same more or less for both of those locations so just take the 850's as from Birmingham Northwards up to about Leeds, they will probably be even better for Scotland as they were Northerlies and i had a peek at some stonkers in there, not sure how they were for Southern England.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Going by the 06Z GEFS T+850/SLP ensembles, I'd say it's far too early yet for making forecasts, for early Smarch? 

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Here is London. Very encouraging for at least a flake or 2 down south at the end of the month. Op was almost a mild outlier at times towards the end. Expecting a few stonking runs in the coming days 

BE9693E5-71B8-494E-B6A0-4F135BBEED65.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

John Kettley was on LBC this morning and he did say an opportunity within the models  at the end of the month for a short lived artic Blast . Fingers and everything else crossed .

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

John Kettley was on LBC this morning and he did say an opportunity within the models  at the end of the month for a short lived artic Blast . Fingers and everything else crossed .

Trouble is these, these Arctic blasts often get shortened down to diddly squat as they get closer, especially during mild winters.  That said, it's better to have an opportunity than nowt!  I doubt a short lived Arctic blast would deliver anything to my back yard, though, but at least those in the north would have some fun and games.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The amplification is MJO driven, until the Euro backs the GFS I would be highly suspicious.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The amplification is MJO driven, until the Euro backs the GFS I would be highly suspicious.

Why do they have to back the almighty gfs exactly. 

Having said that the gfs ensembles are the coldest they have been all winter as we head towards the end of it. 

Unreal as we head towards spring that this happens AGAIN

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Why do they have to back the almighty gfs exactly. 

Having said that the gfs ensembles are the coldest they have been all winter as we head towards the end of it. 

Unreal as we head towards spring that this happens AGAIN

Because it is the GFS that is forecasting tropical convection moving east (6-7-8-1 at high amplitude are generally favorable to high latitude blocking) while the Euro suppresses convection. 

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As it happens that is actually stonking victory for the Euro already. GFS a few days ago was forecasting a phase 7 value in excess of 3, it is now about 1.5 in phases 6-7-8.

Kudos to the Euro it seems. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another take for early March. This time from the GFS 12Z!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

At least it'll be drier?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

After some very wet conditions in many areas this weekend with significant flooding in places and After a very windy night where winds gusted 45-55mph widely for central southern areas with the far southeast recording wind gusts close to 70mph Close to the coast all ahead of an intense squall line. it's looking comparatively calmer in the next few days, although before that it will remain very windy for northern areas especially Scotland and in particular the western Isles and the far north of Scotland tonight where gusts could reach 60-70mph for a time as well as a fair few showers effecting many western areas and northern areas with some areas of central, southern and Eastern areas staying mostly dry the showers being wintry on hills in the north more specifically Scotland.

GFS..

12_15_preciptype.thumb.png.b9c12d553ba46eeed147b971b6d46838.png

Gfs wind gusts.. 

12_12_windvector_gust.thumb.png.dd821868f2fb8dcf591f1d464632196b.png

12_18_windvector_gust.thumb.png.b1cacc910d6d739ff6c42e8798948ce2.png

Winds ease tomorow for many but it stays quite windy and showers continue.

As for the rest of the week windy and wet at times especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland with the risk of gales again later in the week, remaining mostly mild perhaps things becoming cooler during the following week but remaining unsettled but there will be dry days ofcourse especially in central and southern areas. 

19th..

EUROPE_PRMSLEM_HGT500_72.thumb.jpg.cad83ec3aa90f0d9e9ed02cdacbb98d8.jpg

20th..

EUROPE_PRMSLEM_HGT500_96.thumb.jpg.5e75ce15b1fa4ea2c63c5d7c7ab994b6.jpg

21st..

EUROPE_PRMSLEM_HGT500_120.thumb.jpg.4bb4044dfa476e136983da326dd4a258.jpg

23rd..

EUROPE_PRMSLEM_HGT500_168.thumb.jpg.5bf654f2dc6c251ea9b07080ee80224a.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

M9dQYmi.png

 

Still something to maybe hold interest towards months end on the ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

gfs was a very mild run in the ensemble pack,

 

Still some corkers in their and we breach the minus 10 850 hpa line, again which can be a sign something cold is brewing.Heaven forbid in this winter lol

Edit beaten by the above post.lol

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Fairly good agreement between GFS & ECM for a cold shot 24-26th. GEFS suggest it could be more sustained but only time will tell. 

8C543F8C-B8AC-464C-B520-DA15F8824BED.gif

3C888CED-618C-4A4C-945E-78741990E6A6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Nice to see a more amplified run from the ECM

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.8c49f71fabd70a5a1bc6822f7f2706f2.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.c9e57875199643c097d11a4a9caf12fb.gif

lets see where it sit in the ens,prob a cold outlier but you never know.

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

A diverse and divergent set of output this evening in the medium to longer term. As the AO comes off its stratospheric (pardon the pun) levels, there seems a greater sense of uncertainty.

Will we see a break in the strongly Atlantic-driven pattern and how will that break manifest? One option clearly is repeated builds of pressure from the SW ending with an MLB either over southern Britain or just to the SE over Europe. It's perfectly possible though the HP cells are rapidly flattened by the all-powerful jet, at least in the short term. As we move further into March and the TPV begins to weaken, will we see the HP signal develop further?

Another option is we keep in the current pattern with strong LP system dominant and HP only influencing as transient features - again, it's possible but eventually the Atlantic will amplify and we'll get a large storm slowdown somewhere enabling pressure to rise in front of it.

That leads to the third scenario -- amplification. This winter has seen so many of the usual signals and teleconnections suppressed or weakened (perhaps by the IOD) but nothing lasts forever and in time amplification will return to the northern hemisphere possibly as spring allows the TPV to weaken and slacken its grip. As the latter happens, the question will be whether the cards will fall right for UK fans of cold. They don't usually - they may not this time.

I see no serious change until mid-March in all honesty - it may be the HP will periodically settle conditions down especially for southern areas but the residual strength in the TPV (no sign of any warming yet) will prevent a serious MLB build let alone any ridging into Scandinavia so the HP flattens across Europe until the next LP comes in. I do think we will see amplification in a month or so which will make for some interesting synoptics but how the cards will drop remains to be seen.

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