Model output discussion 02/02/20

[IDO]

Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12:

Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z

  

[PiscesStar]

31 minutes ago, IDO said:

Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12:

Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z

  

Yawns... Again FI which ultimately remains just that... A fantasy sadly 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Yawns... Again FI which ultimately remains just that... A fantasy sadly 

I wouldn't completely dismiss the idea - ECM and GFS both show it as a possibility, and the mean is down to -5 at the end of the month. There is a definite trend to pull the high to the west a bit, which would give the northerly chance. Nothing long lasting, but a very short cold shot isn't out of the question. 

[Mike Poole]

11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I disagree RE GLOSEA...

Geopotential heights showing a trough around the UK and the rainfall anomalies are a bit above average.

Ignore the temps, they almost always show above average.

At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going.  And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots.  The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify.

I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The GFS 6z ensembles for me show a downturn in those temps moving forward, the mean most definitely is lower.. I'm loving a few of those ensembles, the one I'm posting...... Come to papa... 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going.  And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots.  The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify.

I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.

That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the  global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average. 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The GFS 6z ensembles for me show a downturn in those temps moving forward, the mean most definitely is lower.. I'm loving a few of those ensembles, the one I'm posting...... Come to papa... 

Looking more likely that we will see a cold snap of some sorts at the end of Feb with quite a few of the ens showing some sort of cold, lets hope that winter can end with a decent blast with snow for all of the country.

06z mean.

 

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the  global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average. 

An entire year? I think winning the lottery would be easier! 

Anyway, back to the models, good to see the possibility of a northerly for the end of the month. 

[nick sussex]

Latest MJO update from the GEFS .

Not backing down , phase 7 and edging into phase 8 . Crunch time approaching!

The ECM update will be crucial now to see if that makes any move towards the GEFS.

We really need the GEFS to be correct .

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE 6z ensembles give the following cumulatives for precipitation and max gusts for storm Dennis.

Precipitation first, minimum, 50% and maximum over the probability distribution, cumulative through to end Sunday.

 

Clearly Wales, Cumbria and NW Scotland hit hard, some places getting away with a drenching but nothing worse.

Wind, and I note suggestions that ARPEGE overdoes winds after Ciara, but here maximum gusts through to end Sunday, for minimum, 50% and maximum:

Even the extreme end less than was forecast for Ciara, so I think the main issue with this storm is rainfall in really specific areas that really really don't need it.

[BlueHedgehog074]

On 07/02/2020 at 20:48, CreweCold said:

Sleet/snow will likely fall to modest levels Monday afternoon/evening across the Midlands/ Wales associated with a little front crossing the country. Winds shown to fall light as it passes

This should support a marginal event- uppers borderline, thickness borderline, but a good chance of seeing some snow fall nonetheless

Couldn’t resist quoting an old post, but the likes of the GFS did pretty well with that event on Monday. Close to the mark with your assessment. Here, seemed to be mostly rain and sleet, although places such as Stoke got hit pretty hard with heavy snow. I think I heard Crewe had some too (but could be mistaken).

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Latest MJO update from the GEFS .

Not backing down , phase 7 and edging into phase 8 . Crunch time approaching!

The ECM update will be crucial now to see if that makes any move towards the GEFS.

We really need the GEFS to be correct .

I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens:

Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout.  Not clever, not safe.  I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.  

 

[Tim Bland]

Decent amount of snow for northern areas on this run ....

[Methuselah]

Bingo!      

[stodge]

Well, a slightly more interesting 12Z OP from GFS. The SPV (or TV or PV or whatever people are calling it) ends up directly over the Pole thus allowing a hint of amplification in mid-Atlantic and negatively tilting the trough so a chilly start to March but it's one option.

Control keeps more energy over NW Greenland so it all flattens again after a chilly snap.

[Snowyowl9]

49 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The moaning thread seems to have disappeared.

Its still there,you had snow during 1988-89.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92852-winter-201920-moans-ramps-chat/

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens:

Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout.  Not clever, not safe.  I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.  

 

We should get an idea by the 18th. Looking at that it is the 17th when the Euro heads back the GFS amplifies. 

..

Nick, have any of the NOAA discussions mentioned this?

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

We should get an idea by the 18th. Looking at that it is the 17th when the Euro heads back the GFS amplifies. 

..

Nick, have any of the NOAA discussions mentioned this?

I’ve not seen mention of it there as yet it’s a bit too far out . They talk about the AO returning to neutral values after this highly positive period .

Earlier in the week the NCEP Global Hazards outlook explained the cause of the divergence . That also was talked about in the MJO update from NCEP .

Its a very complicated picture . I agree in that we’re unlikely to know what’s happening for a few more days . The MJO effectively stalls and then after that is when the models go their own ways .

[Zak M]

The NetWx-SR definitely points out where the heaviest rainfall will be located at the weekend:

Edited February 14, 2020 by Zak M

[PiscesStar]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Bingo!      

And would this also be just a Scotland and Northern England event snow wise? 

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

The NetWx-SR definitely points out where the heaviest rainfall will be located at the weekend:

 

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Snowfish2

[Newberryone]

While the 12z gfs threw up some positives for coldies with the likelihood of cold incursions going forward the 12z ecm isn’t having any of it seemingly. A nightmare of a run again with a combination of azores/euro heights coming very much into play from 19th Feb on. On the plus side, less rainfall and slack winds of course. 

[topo]

ECMWF ensemble is better

[Tim Bland]

Impressive long fetch north westerly 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Couldn’t resist quoting an old post, but the likes of the GFS did pretty well with that event on Monday. Close to the mark with your assessment. Here, seemed to be mostly rain and sleet, although places such as Stoke got hit pretty hard with heavy snow. I think I heard Crewe had some too (but could be mistaken).

I must say, it's nice for someone to quote a post of mine which has positivity in the response

Yes we had some heavy snow here, and it stuck...for about an hour haha.