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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And would you Adam and Eve it: winter may yet have a sting (a midgie-bite anyway) in its tail!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_072.

Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_216.

Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_360.

 

A northerly would be quite potent with he cold air that has been bottled up this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_072.

Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_216.

Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021300_360.

 

I wonder if those clusters suggest the ECM is picking up a stronger MJO signal more inline with the GEFS .

We’ll see later when that updates but at this point the last remaining hope to salvage anything decent out of this tragic excuse for a winter is I think with the GEFS view of the MJO and that making it into phase 7 and hopefully 8.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
27 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's some pressure anomaly

gph500_anom_20200213_00_072.jpggph500_anom_20200213_06_072.jpg

It's my birthday on the 16th and these are the sort of charts that were more typical in mid Feb not Atlantic rubbish of recent years.

 

archives-1969-2-16-0-0.png

archives-1969-2-16-0-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some peaches from the 6z ens, what's it gonna take to just get one of these to come off this winter... 5 days would do!! I've also chucked in a couple of warm scenarios for the lovers of Spring. 

gens-1-1-384.png

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gens-2-1-372.png

gens-3-0-336.png

gens-10-0-372.png

gens-10-1-372.png

gens-13-1-240.png

gens-13-0-240.png

gens-14-0-300.png

gens-16-0-348.png

gens-16-0-360.png

gens-19-0-324.png

gens-19-1-336.png

gens-20-0-324.png

gens-20-1-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Divergence will have to end soon between GFS and Euro, the Euro is showing a retreat to the circle of death within the next few days whereas GFS is amplifying phase 6. This may be leading to the discrepancy seen near the end of the day 10 period.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looks like we're well-and-truly in a random cluster of ghastly Tuesdays...All memory of last-year's memorable run have all but faded away...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Windy, showery and only around 6C...Bleurgh!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Excellent consistency from the GFS as to the next 10-days pattern and quite reasonable with the overall atmospheric condition and tPV workings. So the 06z pretty much duplicated on the 12z, not as mild uppers when the HP cells moves across the UK during D8-11, before the tough descends into Europe.

T234: gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.8dea483bcb899431bee579f869dfa532.png

Let us see where FI takes us on this run?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Interesting on this run, and maybe just algorithms awry, but wedges over the Arctic region and an Arctic high:

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.3a3eabefdc233e42a8e7e7e8bb3b4d10.png

I assume that is to do with the strat-trop coupling as it doesn't appear to be from the ebb and flow of features? If that is a new trend then we may see that cold spill south...

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Looks like Spring is on its way! 

spring.png

spring0.png

spring1.png

spring2.png

spring3.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks like Spring is on its way! 

spring.png

spring0.png

spring1.png

spring2.png

spring3.png

Great Charts , Onwards and upwards , No need to worry about the rain , let’s have high pressure all the way and a significant warm up . If we can’t have snow let’s have some lovely sunny warm sunshine .

 

Lovely Double Rainbow where I am this evening .

B674FBCE-EA0D-4A31-9E66-E79B14AA35A0.jpeg

632A8606-CD82-4970-915C-F201047049B7.jpeg

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

We can see the improvement with the Arctic heights:

06z>gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.e407f4c75e20f03ba4b80470fc0246ff.png12z>gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.c9978c21c8b21c97724b65b70f73d22d.pnggfsnh-1-348.thumb.png.d41fa8d21665429a2bb670e3612f5400.png

We get the three wave NH profile. Sadly on this run the cold enters the W.Pacific, US eastern board and E.Europe and the UK on the periphery! It is the trend that matters and the detail could change assuming this has legs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well at least the ens mean is looking better.

gensnh-21-1-300.png

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.bea718834ef944c2270e872df2b5b6e4.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All coldie eyes remain on the end of the month ……. last chance saloon ????

Still looks to me brief, they just keep struggling to ridge properly into Greenland and snap off a vortex chunk, just looks to me like the atmosphere isn't primed for blocking, that will change soon and can see blocking before March is out, that said you can still get a significant short lived snow event with some of the ensembles showing for the end of this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Hi guys. As you brace yourselves for Storm Dennis. I am on the northern side of the Storm System in Reykjavik where we have a red alert for friday from the Icelandic met office for sustained winds of 68mph and gust in excess of this. The upside is that it will be accompanied by sleet and snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham, Middlesex 58 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow , Extreme weather events
  • Location: Twickenham, Middlesex 58 ft asl
30 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Hi guys. As you brace yourselves for Storm Dennis. I am on the northern side of the Storm System in Reykjavik where we have a red alert for friday from the Icelandic met office for sustained winds of 68mph and gust in excess of this. The upside is that it will be accompanied by sleet and snow. 

Sounds bad (except for the bit about the snow ⛄️ )  I note though that the met office app is showing sustained wind speeds of 35mph and max gust of 65mph for Reykjavik on Friday which seems more on a par with Uk forecast 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Blasted Vortex goes from strength to sodin' strength!

image.thumb.png.3f9dc6e608adec71dd2dfb65a209ed49.png

Problem is, simple physics says that as the season progresses towards the equinox the Northern polar region will keep the cold bottled up and the heating of the lower latitudes will simply enhance the thermal gradient. So - stronger jet and more mild unsettled crap!

Edited by Purga
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