Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its a spring month if you look upon it meteorological, but a winter month if you take into account the equinox!! Many a cold winter has brought severe cold into March! I know it doesn't float everyone's boat, but for me and many others it would be a welcome addition after spending all winter looking for a cold snap. The next 10 to 14 days looks not very good if your after decent cold.. But I just feel a decent cold snap will manifest sometime in March... If not, so be it, we will all be ready to go again in another 8 months, and hopefully this time the IOD will be much more favourable for starters. ECM mean extended looks pretty uninspiring out to the months end, so perhaps that's this month largely a bust, I await March with anticipation!!! 

Aye Matt...Smarch is smarching in!

[summer blizzard]

21 minutes ago, topo said:

I think that both 1989 and 1990 had also a record vortex but no cold in March or April...

Years with an AO value of +1> in Feb were 1959, 1967, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

Only 2002, 2000, 1995, 1992 and 1976 saw the vortex relent to a +1< value in March.

The batch that relent basically stay westerly but a more north/split, the batch that don’t are actually quite warm and settled.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Years with an AO value of +1> in Feb were 1959, 1967, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

Only 2002, 2000, 1995, 1992 and 1976 saw the vortex relent to a +1< value in March.

The batch that relent basically stay westerly but a more north/split, the batch that don’t are actually quite warm and settled.

But, does that actually mean anything SB? I suspect not?

[nick sussex]

Someone blow that damn PV out of the airlock !

This is like a battle between Ripley and the Alien Queen PV , only this time replace the crew for a bunch of coldies !

Just Ripley survives and is effectively the GEFS MJO signal which is the last possible chance of a change .

The huge disagreement between that and the ECM is quite something . 

 

[ICE COLD]

Dream still alive on the gfs 18z just before winters out ? Please just one good dumping of snow in this shocker of a winter . Not too much to ask is it ? 

Edited February 12, 2020 by ICE COLD

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs incoming at 318,it has been showing amplified solutions in fl for a couple of days,will this be a trend.

last chance saloon gfs,play it again in the morning otherwise i will walk out on you.

i will just walk back in and forgive you

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

These more amplified solutions showing up in the GEFS and GFS ops are probably in relation to the MJO signal as there’s really nothing else that could help to displace the limpet Euro high .

NCEP haven’t come down on favouring either the GEFS or ECM in their MJO  updates .

The disagreement for those that missed my ramblings yesterday are down to two areas of convection in the Indian and Pacific oceans .

The models disagree which one will become the dominant feature as it moves east and whether this will strengthen this therefore leads to their different forecasts . It’s an unusual scenario to have the level of disagreement we are seeing and I’ve not seen this confusion before regarding two areas of convection .

 

[Dennis]

GFS0z

 

[DavidS]

40 minutes ago, Dennis said:

GFS0z

 

That’s as good as it gets on the 00z, so I’ll take it. 
If you like long fetch South Westerly’s then Sunday should be to your liking; from the Azores to Russia.......I won’t post the chart as it makes me a bit 

Edited February 13, 2020 by DavidS

[Weather-history]

915mb low on ECM 0z

916mb low on GFS 0z

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

915mb low on ECM 0z

916mb low on GFS 0z

 

913mb lowest recorded in N. Atlantic I believe. 

Wonder if we could challenge that. 

[Weather-history]

Concerning rainfall totals up to 6am Monday for GFS 0z

ECM 0z

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

913mb lowest recorded in N. Atlantic I believe. 

Wonder if we could challenge that. 

I remember Rob McElwee on the Countryfile forecast of 10th January 1993 and he had a 909mb low on his graphics. 

[mb018538]

Not really much more to add to these charts. Awful.

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I remember Rob McElwee on the Countryfile forecast of 10th January 1993 and he had a 909mb low on his graphics. 

Did someone not post a clip of that the other day? I definetly watched it on YouTube a couple of days back.

It had blizzards in Scotland with 100mph gusts of I recall.

[bazookabob]

21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I remember Rob McElwee on the Countryfile forecast of 10th January 1993 and he had a 909mb low on his graphics. 

That's one hell of a memory! 

[Newberryone]

At least the 00z Ecm has reverted to showing something far less unsettled again post Storm Denis, unlike yesterday’s 12z which surprisingly was only showing a 24-48 window of opportunity of drier weather. The overnight run is again indicating euro heights will fend off the worst of anything the pv has to throw at us by veering those deep Atlantic depressions well away to the northwest from next Tue onwards. Fingers crossed!

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Years with an AO value of +1> in Feb were 1959, 1967, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

 

That's interesting, there are are 3 standout summers in that list : 1959, 1976 and 1995 with 1989 not far behind.

Also 1990 and 1997 which had very warm Augusts 

Unfortunately, they are mediocre summers there as well to make any useful correlation 

[mb018538]

31 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's interesting, there are are 3 standout summers in that list : 1959, 1976 and 1995 with 1989 not far behind.

Also 1990 and 1997 which had very warm Augusts 

Unfortunately, they are mediocre summers there as well to make any useful correlation 

The joys of pattern matching....some good, some bad, some in the middle.....so basically, this summer could be anything 

We could actually do with an extended dry spell of weather now - it's been very wet since Autumn in a large number of areas in the UK.

Edited February 13, 2020 by mb018538

[Beanz]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The joys of pattern matching....some good, some bad, some in the middle.....so basically, this summer could be anything 

We could actually do with an extended dry spell of weather now - it's been very wet since Autumn in a large number of areas in the UK.

If you’re into your pattern matching, most Marches following a warm ENSO dominated winter have been dry and mild.  

Edited February 13, 2020 by Beanz

[North-Easterly Blast]

37 minutes ago, Beanz said:

If you’re into your pattern matching, most Marches following a warm ENSO dominated winter have been dry and mild.  

I would not call March 2016 mild overall; it had a CET of 5.8, which is relatively cool for recent years, and that followed a strong El Nino winter, and March 1995 wasn't mild overall after an El Nino that year.

Edited February 13, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to the Models please, Thanks all.

[Methuselah]

Alleluja...my charts of the day! 

    

Bon riddance, to a horrible damp squib of a winter!

[IDO]

In the medium term the tPV -v- euro heights, on the GFS 06z the euro heights edging further north so more settled from D8-D10:

Some anomalous higher than average uppers for a few days. All subject to change as  inter and cross model subtle differences per run, but would be welcome rather than more cold rain.

[IDO]

Post D10 similar in trend as the 0z with a trough dropping into Europe but better Atlantic profile:

So potential for something?