Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

UKV snow potential for Thursday. All very leading edge..

1049061854_viewimage-2020-02-11T101921_111.thumb.png.194904d13fd3c5ab7a3d3ee599cdb22e.png252166766_viewimage-2020-02-11T101907_209.thumb.png.6df93278ed9325867da50f7f79ec9fb4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Likely another weekend storm incoming and already Weather Alert for severe winds in the S/SE/SW and other areas for over 24h:

anim_yqb4.gif

Now named as Storm Dennis.

Edited by IDO
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.4d37318ab3d27c8847d06ec7d69682d1.png

Cluster 2 please - a break from the win and rain would be welcome by all after recent days!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I still can't get over the remarkable consistency in the models when they are showing mild Euro high rubbish in winter!

 

gfsnh-0-318.png

gfsnh-0-324.png

ECH1-240.png

gfsnh-1-300.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GFS 06z mirroring the 0z with height rises for UK after D7:

anim_atg2.gif

The op may drag the mean further north with the settled conditions but fronts close to Scotland but fizzle out if they sink south. So for my locale dry and cool trending dry and mild and back to dry and cool after D7.

Subject to change as FI and small changes could change where the fronts cross, but as of the 06z settled for most of England and Wales.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS 06z mirroring the 0z with height rises for UK after D7:

anim_atg2.gif

The op may drag the mean further north with the settled conditions but fronts close to Scotland but fizzle out if they sink south. So for my locale dry and cool trending dry and mild and back to dry and cool after D7.

Subject to change as FI and small changes could change where the fronts cross, but as of the 06z settled for most of England and Wales.

And almost certainly will verify, another February heatwave coming up. If it was showing any northern blocking it would have disappeared by the 12z runs.

Look at them temps for 12.00, be mid to high teens in places by the afternoon.

 

gfseuw-9-246.png

gfseuw-9-270.png

gfseuw-9-294.png

gfseuw-9-318.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt much chance of lowland snow, on Thursday, methinks?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The weekend looks a tad stormy:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

The following weekend looks a tad more pleasant:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And the far-reaches of FI? Who cares!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Early days but both the GFS and Euro operational runs are largely in sync with a pressure build from day 8. That might suggest that winter will end with more of a whimper than some may have feared. 

spacer.png

spacer.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Early days but both the GFS and Euro operational runs are largely in sync with a pressure build from day 8. That might suggest that winter will end with more of a whimper than some may have feared. 

spacer.png

spacer.png

Ensemble support growing for this:

image.thumb.png.3165d3e5428bee58ed8413f38cdd8c41.pngimage.thumb.png.0fd15f596bec0f88c2745e7541fea1fe.png

Much drier for the last 10 days of the month, with high(er) pressure keeping things  much quieter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Looks like wintry showers some heavy will continue tonight into tomorrow for parts of northwest England Scotland and northern Ireland in particular with some fairly significant additional accumulations possible on hills although this becomes confined to parts of Scotland later tomorrow as it turns drier elsewhere.

Gfs..

06_18_preciptype.thumb.png.a817ca19ccd5f8e11405f9b7f0cf79c3.png

Risk of snow on the northern edge of a low pressure system moving east or southeastwards during Thursday as I've seen Phil has mentioned above, very windy conditions likely for the southwest and the coast with this for a time while this system weakens as well as heavy rain moving through many areas. 

Icon..

06_51_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.9a9e8f595422ec3b5df72694743eb855.png

So another storm on the way for next weekend but looks like the centre will stay to the Northwest of the UK while developing rapidly but the frontal system associated with this could be potent. The centre may end up closer to Scotland and Northern Ireland giving some very strong winds here on Saturday too but some uncertainty with this part, the main focus on very strong winds is on England and Wales for Saturday perhaps into sunday too, this all once again from a very strong jetstream perhaps over 200mph. 

wind300kt_20200211_06_105.thumb.jpg.d9bbe8bdbaf2260e476e3c4edab8c31a.jpg

wind300kt_20200211_06_117.thumb.jpg.5fac97a8e5bb416b3bc38abdf5cac160.jpg

Gfs wind gusts..

481446131_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_108(3).thumb.jpg.8819e95a44f52862e34e2b0c21d09dc8.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_120.thumb.jpg.1132f2b92b5559ed22aab21a741a7282.jpg

There could be one or two wave depressions forming along the southern part of storm Dennis which could bring lengthier periods of very strong winds through sunday even once the main frontal system has cleared to the east, this would also bring the risk of quite a lot of rain through Sunday too for central and southern areas. 

Signs of it turning drier for central and southern parts of the UK at least for early next week but showery conditions probably continue for northern Ireland and Scotland in particular these may be wintry too. 

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

icon-0-138.png?11-12

Looks windy on Monday after Dennis on Saturday according to the ICON.

icon-0-180.png?11-12

Not as amplified as the 0z , I wounder if the GFS will follow suite. Promised amplification has been put back a lot recently.

Edited by frosty ground
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 

AE23638E-63DB-4A80-8689-944B7F18BE94.thumb.png.1a43797e89a6bc9b3947fa9c3fb1edc6.png

If this verifies 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Oh gfs you tease

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.aa6a4134bcbe201c351fdf9715e384a9.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.64a51f1ff6fa7274834c3e095145762e.png

now can we have some proper winter weather instead of these measly graupel showers.  

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Please not another wild goose chase !

Both the GFS and the UKMO roughly on the same page at day 6 . The mid Atlantic high ready to push ne if the upstream pattern allows for that .

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The Theta Es over England at 246 are 10c which is perfect for snow when atlantic slides in!

 

GFS at 246 though. I'll wait for IDO to provide the GFS mean before getting to excited.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...