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Model output discussion 02/02/20

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
2 hours ago, timboy666 said:

Good Morning all

The models good very interesting I can see potential for snow shows in the south on high ground.in the next coming days.

Doesn’t look likely to me. Only in the north and west.

Almost time to call last orders on this winter. Nothing of note showing up in the models for the next couple of weeks, which almost takes us out of February. Bye bye 19/20 season, you won’t be missed.

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

What are people's thoughts on the potential for our next named storm (storm Dennis) arriving this weekend?

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
1 hour ago, Dennis said:

euro4 /gfs later today ; snow possible 

  image.thumb.png.4b6d7984d89de91b4c882efb7dd7abd5.pngimage.thumb.png.4185b101de89a8bcf36b70821e627342.pngimage.thumb.png.bd38e824d7ed7a5057a46572b14939d5.png

You can see the persistent area of precip appearing over wales and pushing west. With current obs I would say sleet (at best) south of Leeds on low ground and some wet snow above 200m. Evaporative cooling will help in any heavier bursts 

8C3800C7-0438-4573-8BEB-4A68DE0CE635.jpeg

0FCF7533-32BA-4AAB-A4F3-F2B224D827CE.jpeg

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You can see the persistent area of precip appearing over wales and pushing west. With current obs I would say sleet (at best) south of Leeds on low ground and some wet snow above 200m. Evaporative cooling will help in any heavier bursts 

8C3800C7-0438-4573-8BEB-4A68DE0CE635.jpeg

0FCF7533-32BA-4AAB-A4F3-F2B224D827CE.jpeg

Bit concerning for areas across the midlands if just the Highest points of Wicklow Mountains are red. 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Just the Model Output Discussion in here please, For where it will/won't snow please use the regionals.

Or even this thread for nowcasting, Thanks all.

 

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

6F04D329-6655-4335-BC07-A6FC155A17E0.thumb.png.826d3d16f4879725c2456451ea33de3c.png663A97A4-E323-4D90-A141-7293D17500D6.thumb.png.ecd7a9dd29612f0f4f453fcdd6e6af94.png

Storm Dennis this weekend? Looking nasty once again across the whole of the UK 

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

6F04D329-6655-4335-BC07-A6FC155A17E0.thumb.png.826d3d16f4879725c2456451ea33de3c.png663A97A4-E323-4D90-A141-7293D17500D6.thumb.png.ecd7a9dd29612f0f4f453fcdd6e6af94.png

Storm Dennis this weekend? Looking nasty once again across the whole of the UK 

Now the debate about upgrades and downgrades ... including the potential of Friday's storm .. which could come closer to the UK o,o a double battering in Scotland next weekend?

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

A few posts have had to go, No snow reports in here please, Just model discussion, Thanks again.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted
5 hours ago, MKN said:

What are people's thoughts on the potential for our next named storm (storm Dennis) arriving this weekend?

In short - I don't like the look of it, especially on Saturday according to the ECM:

Maximum Gusts at:

1600     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_135_18_93.thumb.png.f78c03b7df125656d4b4820f9aa801f0.png

1900     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_138_18_93.thumb.png.7ace99ad1e668168c2126ac1823dddc4.png

2200     xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_141_18_93.thumb.png.ec61055c2ef629ef91babfbdf5d11acc.png

24 hours rainfall total by Sunday 0700:

             xx_model-en-339-0_modez_2020021000_150_18_63.thumb.png.42de6807aee6b63ddb8744baa367ee24.png

This could go either way but this is not the worst prediction among the models as of today.  I could do without a repeat of this weekend, and will be hoping for significant downgrades....   The chances of a memorable wintry spell are now evaporating fast as these vigorous Atlantic depressions continue to form and track their way to us.  

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

I hope all who have the snow are enjoying it, only a few flakes here so far.. I'm quite interested in the 6z ens today, a fair few runs going for some more colder shots around the 20th or thereafter! Hopefully we can squeeze a little more like out this fast dying winter yet.. 

gens-2-0-264.png

gens-2-1-252.png

gens-4-0-264.png

gens-4-1-252.png

gens-5-0-288.png

gens-6-0-324.png

gens-9-0-372.png

gens-10-0-348.png

gens-10-1-348.png

gens-14-0-300.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Gfs keeping the wintry flavour going, at least for high ground but nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year.. Yet. 

Hopefully we have seen the end of the Azores high for the rest of the winter and hopefully the first half of spring where decent snow is still possible for everyone. 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just want to say how impressed ive been with the GFS modelling of this cold spell, after we locally have had a dumping.

The GFS for several days now alongside the FAX charts recognised that shortwave feature as having the potential to deliver a more prolonged spell of snow for the north midlands, and only Netweathers daily outlook for Derby supported it.  The BBC, Met Office, and all other online forecasts were wrong, Accuweather even predicted 10c, sunny, dry, for Derby .

So dont dismiss the GFS predicted precipitation, they got it bang on today.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

There is quiet a few gefs ens amplifying a ridge in the Atlantic in fl,something to keep an eye on in subsequent runs,MJO phase 7-8 would favor this. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

7756E8A5-C919-43C7-A2BD-D4E860772A16.thumb.png.70c9c24359ac8b15745b37c3be5d8ad8.png

An upgrade as far as the GFS 12z is concerned for potential storm Dennis

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I hope all who have the snow are enjoying it, only a few flakes here so far.. I'm quite interested in the 6z ens today, a fair few runs going for some more colder shots around the 20th or thereafter! Hopefully we can squeeze a little more like out this fast dying winter yet.. 

gens-2-0-264.png

gens-2-1-252.png

gens-4-0-264.png

gens-4-1-252.png

gens-5-0-288.png

gens-6-0-324.png

gens-9-0-372.png

gens-10-0-348.png

gens-10-1-348.png

gens-14-0-300.png

Nothing here sadly in the south East not even a wet flake. Jealous of those up north as at this rate we are very unlikely to see anything. So as. Far as gfs goes, it gets it right as it showed no precipitation of the snow variety reaching Kent. Shame. 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Well, this 'Storm Denis' looks interesting. Having looked at the models, it may not be as violent as Storm Ciara, but definitely something to watch out for!

Edited by Zak M
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Newberryone Aficionado

Newberryone

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
Posted

12z Ecm and the Azores high looking primed to rid us of this turbulent spell following the upcoming weekend gales. In fact, all looks very springlike indeed days 9 and 10 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 hour ago, Always a red said:

Wow

Everyone really has given up on our so called winter now, hardly a post on the model output in 2 days!!

 

 

Winter is over buddy - ext EPS suggest some Springlike warmth.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Winter is over buddy - ext EPS suggest some Springlike warmth.

The next few days looking increasingly like the last chance to see any wintry potential before February is out.

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