Model output discussion 02/02/20

[nick sussex]

Still shortwave drama upstream which is causing these shorter term divergences in the modelling .

However I’m not really sure we want the earlier more amplified solutions like the UKMO and the earlier ECM 00 hrs run.

The reason being , we don’t want a ridge thrown ne as it’s never going to hold against the PV and will just bring the Euro high more into play .

We want the pattern just running east and flattening any high . And then hope the GFS has the right trend .

Compare the UKMO and GFS at day 6 .

You can see the former has the Euro high more in play . We want that flattened , and want low pressure to be able to get further east , then we hope the GFS is correct with amplifying after that point towards day ten .

 

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by nick sussex

[IDO]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Still shortwave drama upstream which is causing these shorter term divergences in the modelling .

However I’m not really sure we want the earlier more amplified solutions like the UKMO and the earlier ECM 00 hrs run.

The reason being , we don’t want a ridge thrown ne as it’s never going to hold against the PV and will just bring the Euro high more into play .

We want the pattern just running east and flattening any high . And then hope the GFS has the right trend .

 

 

 

Yes, agree, the support for the ECM route is puzzling as we are aware all winter when the ridge builds that close to the UK, it will topple and mix with the euro heights and there goes another 5-7 days of winter?

The GFS building the ridge in the Atlantic gives us a chance to get some colder air to the UK rather than missing to our east. It isn't perfect but miles better than the ECM scenario as far as all evidence suggests, as there is no real chance of any HLB to the NE currently. The GFS 12z, no winter-wonderland but better than a euro high:

 

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, agree, the support for the ECM route is puzzling as we are aware all winter when the ridge builds that close to the UK, it will topple and mix with the euro heights and there goes another 5-7 days of winter?

The GFS building the ridge in the Atlantic gives us a chance to get some colder air to the UK rather than missing to our east. It isn't perfect but miles better than the ECM scenario as far as all evidence suggests, as there is no real chance of any HLB to the NE currently. The GFS 12z, no winter-wonderland but better than a euro high:

 

Totally agree which is why i said in my previous post that it continues with the southerly tracking jet after 144 hours to give us more opportunities of cold and snow!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Yes, agree, the support for the ECM route is puzzling as we are aware all winter when the ridge builds that close to the UK, it will topple and mix with the euro heights and there goes another 5-7 days of winter?

The GFS building the ridge in the Atlantic gives us a chance to get some colder air to the UK rather than missing to our east. It isn't perfect but miles better than the ECM scenario as far as all evidence suggests, as there is no real chance of any HLB to the NE currently. The GFS 12z, no winter-wonderland but better than a euro high:

 

Exactly , normally we want more amplification but in this instance all that does is throw up a ridge which will then sink joining the Euro limpet high . The jet axis will then be more ne . 

The ECM might eventually get there but it wastes more time . Unless there was some huge backtrack and a ridge thrown ne gets cut off and helps to put some forcing on the jet then this time we want the GFS flatter earlier solution and then hope we get that better ridge to the nw .

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, agree, the support for the ECM route is puzzling as we are aware all winter when the ridge builds that close to the UK, it will topple and mix with the euro heights and there goes another 5-7 days of winter?

The GFS building the ridge in the Atlantic gives us a chance to get some colder air to the UK rather than missing to our east. It isn't perfect but miles better than the ECM scenario as far as all evidence suggests, as there is no real chance of any HLB to the NE currently. The GFS 12z, no winter-wonderland but better than a euro high:

 

Is the gfs mini snowfall for monday still there on this run?it looks it!

[stodge]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Exactly , normally we want more amplification but in this instance all that does is throw up a ridge which will then sink joining the Euro limpet high . The jet axis will then be more ne . 

The ECM might eventually get there but it wastes more time . Unless there was some huge backtrack and a ridge thrown ne gets cut off and helps to put some forcing on the jet then this time we want the GFS flatter earlier solution and then hope we get that better ridge to the nw .

Up to a point but if we can get enough amplification for the Azores Hp to ridge NE into Scandinavia, that works well.

There are subtle differences with the 06Z OP in terms of the Atlantic profile - is there enough to hold the HLB in place? I suspect not but it's interesting to see the signal again.

[nick sussex]

Wow two FI GFS outputs with the same trend .

Both have an Atlantic ridge being forced ne ahead of a more amplified upstream pattern .

This time though this ridge would have a better chance of surviving against the PV .

 

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is the gfs mini snowfall for monday still there on this run?it looks it!

...still there:

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, stodge said:

Up to a point but if we can get enough amplification for the Azores Hp to ridge NE into Scandinavia, that works well.

There are subtle differences with the 06Z OP in terms of the Atlantic profile - is there enough to hold the HLB in place? I suspect not but it's interesting to see the signal again.

Yes that works well but we need the PV less angry at that point . In this instance it’s hard to see any ridge surviving the onslaught .

Later on we might .We can’t afford though another ridge failure as we don’t have weeks to play with . So if the GFS has the right trend then we need that ridge to land.

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, stodge said:

Up to a point but if we can get enough amplification for the Azores Hp to ridge NE into Scandinavia, that works well.

There are subtle differences with the 06Z OP in terms of the Atlantic profile - is there enough to hold the HLB in place? I suspect not but it's interesting to see the signal again.

Of course possible, but based on this winter, as I said, that simply has failed each time we see it. So enough is enough this winter, heights building in the west Atlantic may deliver better results as two GFS runs have indicated. It seems that there is a signal for the westerly flow to slow, and ECM may just be progressive with that hence the ridge at D6. But the earlier the ridge builds the better chance for the UK so building over Ireland as the ECM does is close to useless in the current profile, just look at the tPV forcing the pattern at D6-10, after that we get a lull allowing *potentially a more sustainable ridge.

[stodge]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Of course possible, but based on this winter, as I said, that simply has failed each time we see it. So enough is enough this winter, heights building in the west Atlantic may deliver better results as two GFS runs have indicated. It seems that there is a signal for the westerly flow to slow, and ECM may just be progressive with that hence the ridge at D6. But the earlier the ridge builds the better chance for the UK so building over Ireland as the ECM does is close to useless in the current profile, just look at the tPV forcing the pattern at D6-10, after that we get a lull allowing *potentially a more sustainable ridge.

I don't disagree and of course it's all in far FI anyway but the GFS 12Z OP shows a possible way out of the current pattern.

The TPV has shifted from its normal home and is further west over Canada allowing blocking to the NE to become possible.

The other key factor is a part of the Atlantic trough splits and heads SE ending up around the south of Iberia and North Africa. It's not quite a Genoa Low but it provides some support and forces the next Azores HP ridge to go more NE than ENE which in turn supports the MLB over the British Isles and perhaps further NE.

[Griff]

Just leaving this here to distract me from the worry of potentially losing my roof tomorrow (17th century listed Oxfordshire cottage)... 

Does the GFS do this for fun in FI or does anyone think there might be something lurking? 

[Methuselah]

Anything's possible, I guess...? But I do hope that that European cold pool stays well away, as there's nowt much worse, IMO, than cold nothingness, during the run-up to springtime proper.

     

In the meantime, roll on springtime!

[Paul White.]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Anything's possible, I guess...? But I do hope that that European cold pool stays well away, as there's nowt much worse, IMO, than cold nothingness, during the run-up to springtime proper.

     

In the meantime, roll on springtime!

We will be having none of that spring/summer nonsense until we have had our winter, thank you very much seriously though March 13 &18 delivered some of the best snowy weather I have ever seen.  

Edited February 8, 2020 by Paul White.
Poor grammar ?

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just leaving this here to distract me from the worry of potentially losing my roof tomorrow (17th century listed Oxfordshire cottage)... 

Does the GFS do this for fun in FI or does anyone think there might be something lurking? 

No.  In a word!  I don't think there is anything lurking, apart from the very unsettled stormy period next week from which some might see snow, and even in Oxfordshire we might see a flake or two on the windscreen in amongst the endless rain.  

I just cannot see any chance whatsoever now of a wintry spell of any significance during the rest of Feb or in March.  First the MJO, today's output showing the GFS climb down of the 'progress into high amplitude phase 7' continuing, as I posted days ago ECM didn't want to know and still doesn't:

And in the strat it is worse.  Approaching record zonal winds from GFS:

(it has gone outside the grey bit, meaning more than 2 standard deviations).

Strat vortex is pristine for this time of year, here GFS T384, ruling the roost:

hardly deviated from the pole at any level.  

Which brings me back to my comments about summer from yesterday.  Before making any kind of prediction for the UK summer, I will want to know what kind of state the atmosphere is left in after this dreadful non-winter!  Two extremes:

• The strat vortex gradually dissipates and the final warming is that it just slowly peters out, this would be welcome.
• The final warming is similar to a SSW, resulting in turmoil in the troposphere lasting weeks, possibly leaving high lat blocks in place into summer, not a good thing.

So, I am continuing to watch the strat, but with a view to damage limitation in summer rather than any late winter or spring cold benefits...

Edited February 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[E17boy]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just leaving this here to distract me from the worry of potentially losing my roof tomorrow (17th century listed Oxfordshire cottage)... 

Does the GFS do this for fun in FI or does anyone think there might be something lurking? 

Hi peeps again

I know time is running out for us coldies but we have still got enough time to deliver some decent cold and snow even here in the South. I know the pattern is such that what we are seeing today on the models might be a lot different come tomorrow. Is there something that is going to happen and make winter go from zero to hero. It can still happen, makes the nerves a bit calmer when we consider 2018 it wasn't till the very end of February that the Beast came raging in. However that time we had a SSW which was the main factor that's the only difference.

This is our last hope to scrape something worthwhile in the next few weeks. If that high can get enough northeast (PV allowing) then we have a chance of undercutting energy and also a chance maybe for cold to start heading west from Europe, it's a hard and challenging call but can it be achieved. We got to get this breakthrough come on winter you can do it .

we watch and wait at the edge of our seats 

regards

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps again

I know time is running out for us coldies but we have still got enough time to deliver some decent cold and snow even here in the South. I know the pattern is such that what we are seeing today on the models might be a lot different come tomorrow. Is there something that is going to happen and make winter go from zero to hero. It can still happen, makes the nerves a bit calmer when we consider 2018 it wasn't till the very end of February that the Beast came raging in. However that time we had a SSW which was the main factor that's the only difference.

This is our last hope to scrape something worthwhile in the next few weeks. If that high can get enough northeast (PV allowing) then we have a chance of undercutting energy and also a chance maybe for cold to start heading west from Europe, it's a hard and challenging call but can it be achieved. We got to get this breakthrough come on winter you can do it .

we watch and wait at the edge of our seats 

regards

Re bold bit, the SSW was the crucial difference.  And anyone who was following the narrative in 2018 will be aware, this was predictable and followed right through from the hint of a SSW in January through the event itself to the trop response and finally to the BFTE itself, and the BFTE2 as well.  That ain't going to happen this year, if it was, half that narrative would have taken place already on here...

Edited February 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[E17boy]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Re bold bit, the SSW was the crucial difference.  And anyone who was following the narrative in 2018 will be aware, this was predictable and followed right through from the hint of a SSW in January through the event itself to the trop response and finally to the BFTE itself, and the BFTE2 as well.  That ain't going to happen this year, if it was, half that narrative would have taken place already on here...

Totally agree I think us coldies are just trying to look for the last scraps of comfort  now. Alas probably deep down we know chances are very slim for a nationwide freeze but we still live it that hope that maybe something extraordinarily will happen. Who knows till we don't come to the end path of winter we will never give up. Our love for cold and snow will never die.

regards

[That ECM]

No wonder no one has commented on the ecm. Jeez

[Zak M]

Not another storm developing surely??? 

[Griff]

Possibly the wrong thread.... but could be interesting for a couple of days, Gav's snow watch worth a view if like me you have the week off. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Griff

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

No wonder no one has commented on the ecm. Jeez

Nothing remotely good about the ECM tonight - even at day 10 we're still a million miles from anything decent. Record strength PV and record +AO killing everything in its path.

ECM at day 15 had 80% support for continued +NAO and weather off a westerly quadrant. No changes in the pipeline any time soon.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

O

38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not another storm developing surely??? 

UKMO model?

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

O

UKMO model?

Yeah

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes Chris, the high res run showed this earlier in the week and for it to be dropped like the speed of a stone from the heavens next run.  Unfortunately for us lovers of the promise of cold , the ECM Ens having northing to do with any blocking as the picture below continues to pump mild air into Euroland with some amazing upper 850mb temps in the mix , especially over Alpine countries by day 10. Maybe an extreme of the model outputs though.

C

No surprise that ECM reverts back to form and drops any sign of blocking on the 12z run at 240t ( chart below ) However, GFsS op still holds a beacon of light with its last two runs but will it still show heights building to the NE in the next few runs?