Model output discussion 02/02/20

[SnowBlake]

50 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I'm not seeing any lows diving s/e through Europe! 

Or am I missing something

 

 

 

13th/14th a channel low passes through ending up over Denmark at the end of that gif. 

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

To be honest Jules216 that sort of set up wouldn’t surprise me at all come March or even April, ridiculously mild winters have a habit of having a sting in the tail once meteorological winter has finished. 

1974/75 winter a good example of that, heavy snowfalls in the spring. 

[IDO]

GFS another run another possible outcome:

This time a stormy run, start to D8. Lots of wind and rain and snow for some. Again sticking to its guns with a predominantly westerly flow and over to ECM...

[ancientsolar]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS another run another possible outcome:

This time a stormy run, start to D8. Lots of wind and rain and snow for some. Again sticking to its guns with a predominantly westerly flow and over to ECM...

if something like that pulls off .. more 70-80mph winds o,o with another cannon following it  

who knows. seems like our version of Americas Hurricane season 

[nick sussex]

The GEFS are tragic . 

PV on steroids , and a strong Euro high . I gave up by day 11 as I was beginning to feel nauseous! 

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are tragic . 

PV on steroids , and a strong Euro high . I gave up by day 11 as I was beginning to feel nauseous! 

reflected  here too.!!!!!

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

reflected  here too.!!!!!

If GEFS are right, it’s Game Over for winter.  Very good support from recent EPS suites too!

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

reflected  here too.!!!!!

In the space of 3 runs those GEFS have got steadily worse . Overplaying the southwards push of the jet . If the jets going to go north it’s better if it keeps on going.

Better to be mild and dry than mild , windy with lots of rain . Still the ECM to come tonight . After those GEFS I have very low expectations ! 

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

If GEFS are right, it’s Game Over for winter.  Very good support from recent EPS suites too!

I wonder if the 18z will produce yet another false dawn later on this evening, and will most of us just ignore it again like yesterday?

Unfortunately the donkey is getting very tired now and needs more than just a carrot to get it moving again.

Edited February 7, 2020 by snowray

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

reflected  here too.!!!!!

Think thats the coldest uppers of the season and highlights why any wind direction that has an Atlantic influence is chocolate tea pot stuff for coldies.

Im convinced the Atlantic is warmer than it was 30 to 40 years ago, meaning coldies need easterlies even moreso than previously.

To be honest i threw the towel in mid December but didn't want to bring the thread down and be accused of being a doom monger.

I have had some correspondence with one of the very best contributors to this site and the person (who i won't reveal) pretty much confirmed my worst fears a  while ago.

Even the zealots among us (and i consider myself a cold zealot) probably felt the same way as me.

Perhaps 2019/20 will be one for the archives when the +NAO and massive +AO destroyed the European winter.

All that said i got my fingers crossed for the folk up in NW scotland who may do very well next week and get the chance to sample some snow.

Perhaps locally the highest hills will see some snow but i'm on nightshift so wont get chance to see any of it.

 

 

[snowblind]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

reflected  here too.!!!!!

Reckon at that range they're overdoing the mild just like they overdo the cold. Expect it will be milder than average but not to the extent shown here.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think thats the coldest uppers of the season and highlights why any wind direction that has an Atlantic influence is chocolate tea pot stuff for coldies.

Im convinced the Atlantic is warmer than it was 30 to 40 years ago, meaning coldies need easterlies even moreso than previously.

To be honest i threw the towel in mid December but didn't want to bring the thread down and be accused of being a doom monger.

I have had some correspondence with one of the very best contributors to this site and the person (who i won't reveal) pretty much confirmed my worst fears a  while ago.

Even the zealots among us (and i consider myself a cold zealot) probably felt the same way as me.

Perhaps 2019/20 will be one for the archives when the +NAO and massive +AO destroyed the European winter.

All that said i got my fingers crossed for the folk up in NW scotland who may do very well next week and get the chance to sample some snow.

Perhaps locally the highest hills will see some snow but i'm on nightshift so wont get chance to see any of it.

 

 

Oh your a cold zealot alright nws, no doubt about that.

So what did your insider say about March though, although I prefer my snow in a winter month, the first couple of weeks can still be good as we saw two years ago.

Anyway, lets see if the ECM has anything in the way of carrots this evening, (even an old half eaten one will do).

[Purga]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In the space of 3 runs those GEFS have got steadily worse . Overplaying the southwards push of the jet . If the jets going to go north it’s better if it keeps on going.

Better to be mild and dry than mild , windy with lots of rain . Still the ECM to come tonight . After those GEFS I have very low expectations ! 

You must have the constitution of an Ox to keep plugging away for us Nick!

All signals seem to point relentlessly to zonal dross ad nauseum....

Thanks for your efforts anyway, you're always entertaining even if the weather isn't!

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh your a cold zealot alright nws, no doubt about that.

So what did your insider say about March though, although I prefer my snow in a winter month, the first couple of weeks can still be good as we saw two years ago.

Anyway, lets see if the ECM has anything in the way of carrots this evening, (even an old half eaten one will do).

Never mentioned March Ray,or rather it wasn't discussed.

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[BlueHedgehog074]

Regarding the comments about the GFS 12Z ensembles, even the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean is not playing nice for cold and snowy weather for the UK beyond next week.

Edit: (noticed Purga posted some of these above but pretty much similar to some of my thoughts. Do agree it’s been frustrating) 

 

These means can mute out signals other GFS ensemble members could be latching on to. But otherwise, the Polar Vortex raiding the Greenland area and European heights to the South/South-East of the UK.

This Winter really not been kind to the cold and snow fans. Can really feel the frustration a lot of you have had. The eagerness of trying to keep our toys in our prams has not been easy. Feel like, however, could do with a break from both Netweather and the models. Just getting me down (even despite the lack of cold). And the model watching is just so addictive.

Guess the only positives is I’d welcome some of those milder South-Westerly flows the mean is painting as longs the possible European High was close enough to keep things dry. The only other thing is while next week looks marginal away from high ground, especially away from Northern UK, some of those Westerly flows could still be cold enough to provide the odd wintry surprise or two further South. It may also be possible the dominant European High some models show after next week, may become a little less menacing in time with more amplified solutions showing up. Chilly Polar Maritime air, though, could just continue to dominate (or probably at least some kind of variable, mobile, Atlantic flow).

Just hope this Winter can somehow offer the weather you’re longing to have before it pops its clogs!

A break could be worth it for anyone else feeling down about the models and the Winter (bar, again, the windy and wintry mix of weather to keep some entertained for next week). For a fact, sure can’t wait for Spring. 

Overall, we have been impressed with the way people have handled things in the model thread this Winter. Few odd hic-cups, bickering moments, and up and downs (which is to be expected considering how sneaky this Winter has been for many). Mostly, we haven’t had to lock many people up in our dark, stinky, dungeon this season. For that, we would like to thank you all and, in general, for keeping the thread running smoothly. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
For recently noticing Purga’s post above

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm still locked in that dungeon DRL.. Hopefully be out on good behaviour soon... Can you believe ECM folks, we get thrown a couple of cold days with snow showers for some, and then we have to pay for it with +8 uppers later, high pressure ridging to the South, could be a case of sledges for the favoured few, followed by lawn mowers out and a quick barbi if that sun gets out... Only in the UK folks..

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm still locked in that dungeon DRL.. Hopefully be out on good behaviour soon... Can you believe ECM folks, we get thrown a couple of cold days with snow showers for some, and then we have to pay for it with +8 uppers later, high pressure ridging to the South, could be a case of sledges for the favoured few, followed by lawn mowers out and a quick barbi if that sun gets out... Only in the UK folks..

Pretty tragic that -7 uppers and dam values down to 520 will still only really give snow at elevation. The UK really is cursed.

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

You must have the constitution of an Ox to keep plugging away for us Nick!

All signals seem to point relentlessly to zonal dross ad nauseum....

Thanks for your efforts anyway, you're always entertaining even if the weather isn't!

 it also fits in with the update from Exeter dry and cold will be short lived into March not only the NAO and a O coppered this winter IOD has been a big player to I believe.    

[jules216]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are tragic . 

PV on steroids , and a strong Euro high . I gave up by day 11 as I was beginning to feel nauseous! 

@nick sussex There are 2 things certain in todays world: 1.Taxes, 2.Euro high. I have seen it survive recent - NAO summer and +NAO winter. Feels we in Europe are like Saudies or Egyptians with permament mild weather and high pressure, super nino synoptics in ENSO neutral + solar minimum combo. What is going to happen next summer I wonder if we enter spring after such record mild winter. Records will tumble again surely

[Alexis]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty tragic that -7 uppers and dam values down to 520 will still only really give snow at elevation. The UK really is cursed.

I thought the thicknesses were so low that less elevation would be needed?

[Don]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

What is going to happen next summer I wonder if we enter spring after such record mild winter. Records will tumble again surely

Lets not go there!

[jules216]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Lets not go there!

no panic,you can always be chief accuweather forecaster for Europe

[carinthian]

17 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@nick sussex There are 2 things certain in todays world: 1.Taxes, 2.Euro high. I have seen it survive recent - NAO summer and +NAO winter. Feels we in Europe are like Saudies or Egyptians with permament mild weather and high pressure, super nino synoptics in ENSO neutral + solar minimum combo. What is going to happen next summer I wonder if we enter spring after such record mild winter. Records will tumble again surely

I think ECM has not covered itself in glory week with its out -puts. An example below of todays 12z run at 144t below.Outwardly looks promising , the chart for the following 24 hours then shows a 25 mb pressure rise over the UK and dissipates the low into the life sucking ever present Euro high. Maybe this scenario shown by is extreme but exemplifies the course of this so far rotten mild winter for many. Looks like spring @jules216 is happening now in Germany with pictures today showing trees budding flowers..This year well on way globally as the warmest ever, even Antarctica recording its highest summer temp ever of nearly 19c yesterday. 30c in Valencia , Spain earlier this week. Just crazy weather.

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

Reckon at that range they're overdoing the mild just like they overdo the cold. Expect it will be milder than average but not to the extent shown here.

I wouldn't  count on it...lots of data suites going down the same road! !!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I think ECM has not covered itself in glory week with its out -puts. An example below of todays 12z run at 144t below.Outwardly looks promising , the chart for the following 24 hours then shows a 25 mb pressure rise over the UK and dissipates the low into the life sucking ever present Euro high. Maybe this scenario shown by is extreme but exemplifies the course of this so far rotten mild winter for many.

Hasn’t covered itself in glory in what way  ??