Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Allseasons-Si]

Lick your lips at this at the end of Feb and into march

ens mean 500hpa height and temps anomaly from the Beijing climate center.

if this was to be correct then March would seem to be the norm for winter of late.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo add adding inro.

[SLEETY]

Hmm Beijing climate Centre  showed something similar last winter and the complete opposite happened in the end, maybe its actually correct, which it could be as Spring is approaching and Heights to the South  normally magically disappear and Heights to the North magically appear. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by SLEETY

[KTtom]

Trying to find the uk in the first set of charts above gave me a headache,as for the second set......

[Newberryone]

The latest Ecm run in its latter stages continuing to indicate an uptick in temps to perhaps early springlike values with heights to the south eventually settling conditions down somewhat with Atlantic lows being steered away to the far off northwest. So following the upcoming disturbed period of weather it would appear that the low pressure system( less intense in nature) modeled for next Wednesday could be the last bout of very unsettled weather we see for awhile. 

[SLEETY]

Well   next week looks exciting if you like wind and wintry showers but ecm especially is back to square one after next week, with most of Europe way above average temperature wise  again, and no sign of any proper  cold and snowy weather for the majority of the UK. 

What a horrible slog of a winter, be glad when it's over. 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by SLEETY

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well   next week looks exciting if you like wind and wintry showers but ecm especially is back to square one after next week, with most of Europe way above average temperature wise  again, and no sign of any proper  cold and snowy weather for the majority of the UK. 

What a horrible slog of a winter, be glad when it's over. 

 

 

Looking that way - but yet again the extended forecasts/models have been excellent, and forecast this well in advance. Increasingly looking like we may need a seasonal shift this year and get some winter in early spring, if we're to get anything at all. February increasingly looking like another write off. All 3 winter months above 6c for the first time? Looking a good bet now.

[mulzy]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking that way - but yet again the extended forecasts/models have been excellent, and forecast this well in advance. Increasingly looking like we may need a seasonal shift this year and get some winter in early spring, if we're to get anything at all. February increasingly looking like another write off. All 3 winter months above 6c for the first time? Looking a good bet now.

Yes, looking like that.  A big win for the seasonal models!  I believe December 19 CET came in at 5.8C.

Ext EPS same old ugly story - strong Euro heights and low heights to the north west.

Edited February 7, 2020 by mulzy

[North-Easterly Blast]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking that way - but yet again the extended forecasts/models have been excellent, and forecast this well in advance. Increasingly looking like we may need a seasonal shift this year and get some winter in early spring, if we're to get anything at all. February increasingly looking like another write off. All 3 winter months above 6c for the first time? Looking a good bet now.

December 2019 was just short of 6*C, it came in at 5.8*C.

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, looking like that.  A big win for the seasonal models!  I believe December 19 CET came in at 5.8C.

Ext EPS same old ugly story - strong Euro heights and low heights to the north west.

 

3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

December 2019 was just short of 6*C, it came in at 5.8*C.

Ah - my bad. I've seen it mentioned a few times so though that December had just squeaked over 6c. I will re-phrase it...2/3 of winter over 6c, and 1/3 just below! 

Edited February 7, 2020 by mb018538

[nick sussex]

Not the interest of last nights 18hrs run .

The GFS comes back to reality today , but at day ten is better than the ECM op which is an absolutely atrocious chart for cold prospects .

Unfortunately where as any cold charts from it at the longer range have imploded I fear some variant of that day ten horror show will verify .

[markw2680]

I no it’s all model related but I don’t understand why we are all discussing fi stuff rather than what’s about to happen over the weekend and early next week? Surely it’s worth talking about as it’s probably the best thing we have had all winter

[Paul]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I no it’s all model related but I don’t understand why we are all discussing fi stuff rather than what’s about to happen over the weekend and early next week? Surely it’s worth talking about as it’s probably the best thing we have had all winter

People are free to discuss whatever model related stuff interests them in here, but if you're wanting to specifically discuss this weekend, there's a dedicated thread here:

 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Yes, looking like that.  A big win for the seasonal models!  I believe December 19 CET came in at 5.8C.

Ext EPS same old ugly story - strong Euro heights and low heights to the north west.

Basically there has been a +NAO from early Dec right through to now and no sign of it changing anytime soon.

To add insult to injury it now looks like uppers of -7 and negative dews are unlikely to deliver away from the higher hills mon/tue with meto/bbc now progging rain and sleet at 300m locally.

 

[weirpig]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Basically there has been a +NAO from early Dec right through to now and no sign of it changing anytime soon.

To add insult to injury it now looks like uppers of -7 and negative dews are unlikely to deliver away from the higher hills mon/tue with meto/bbc now progging rain and sleet at 300m locally.

 

Yes  and with next week coming more into focus    It seems that that will be the case   Cold rain and blustery     unless you are a mountain goat   

[MikeC53]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Basically there has been a +NAO from early Dec right through to now and no sign of it changing anytime soon.

To add insult to injury it now looks like uppers of -7 and negative dews are unlikely to deliver away from the higher hills mon/tue with meto/bbc now progging rain and sleet at 300m locally.

 

Yes, i think this winter has seen the sort of thing that we have had over the last 30 years racheted up.

[Singularity]

  

From least to most ridging into Europe at +144 hours.

I'm not going to lie - GFS' sudden switch to retracting the ridge west has surprised and perplexed me. I can't see anything in the stratosphere or tropical activity to support it!

More of a Euro ridge on the 00z than the previous two runs, so we'll see if the model's backing down now. GEM is similar to it at +144 yet develops a monstrous Euro high by D10:

...which does seem to be the overall model signal, likely linked to a bit of an MJO or Kelvin wave getting going across Indonesia - something ECM latched onto yesterday. GEFS remain very fast to move it on and amplify it over the W. Pacific - suspiciously so, IMO.

[Eskimo]

Possibly some snow for Wales and some central areas of England. Elevation of 150-200m+ required I'd imagine. 

[SMU]

Not seeing the amplification to be honest - UKMO & GFS have been very flat with continued westerlies - I think thats the form horse...

[frosty ground]

Whilst the relatively cold Westerly Flow is forecast to continue you can not rule out something like this happening.

[BlueHedgehog074]

To be honest, despite the flow being a strong one from the Atlantic, including the fact the GFS can exaggerate the cold 850 hPa temperatures, I’ll still be surprised should this setup not deliver any sleet or snow showers to low(ish) levels for the UK. Especially away from the far South.

(example for Tuesday)

(example for Wednesday)

 

[Polar Maritime]

Some big snowfall totals over the parts of Scotland/Highlands come Wednesday as shown by UKV.

 

Also an Amber Warning now out for storm force winds in the S/E for Sunday..

Edited February 7, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

  

From least to most ridging into Europe at +144 hours.

I'm not going to lie - GFS' sudden switch to retracting the ridge west has surprised and perplexed me. I can't see anything in the stratosphere or tropical activity to support it!

More of a Euro ridge on the 00z than the previous two runs, so we'll see if the model's backing down now. GEM is similar to it at +144 yet develops a monstrous Euro high by D10:

...which does seem to be the overall model signal, likely linked to a bit of an MJO or Kelvin wave getting going across Indonesia - something ECM latched onto yesterday. GEFS remain very fast to move it on and amplify it over the E. Pacific - suspiciously so, IMO.

GFS on Tuesday and Wednesday were showing what ECM is now post-D7, but the op and members have been moving towards a continuation of the westerly flow since then. The main feature is ECM blowing up that low at T168 that forces the ridge with WAA, there appears to be no tropical forcing with this change:

GFS has been run-by-run downgrading that, so the ridge de-reacts accordingly. The culprit to blow up this low appears to be the high in mid-Canada on the ECM and not on the GFS:

That is possibly the catalyst for the knock-on effect? Anyway the GFS 06z staying with current GFS thinking.

My opinion is that any forcing is coming from the strat-trop coupling ATM and until we are confident the MJO is no longer being overridden by other variables best to treat that as noise. The amplification over the W. Pacific maybe the negative heat flux at 100hPa and the coupling.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some big snowfall totals over the parts of Scotland/Highlands come Wednesday as shown by UKV.

 

 

High avalance risk I would have thought! 

Tiny amounts on the Pennines though...

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some big snowfall totals over the parts of Scotland/Highlands come Wednesday as shown by UKV.

 

 

Likely explains the forecasts locally.

And makes a mockery of low res GFS precip suggestions.

Looks good for the areas mentioned so good luck to the guys in NW scotland.

I would imagine like most coldies i just want winter 2019/20 to go away now,not that we have had a winter mind.

[nick sussex]

The GFS loses that deep low upstream associated with the main trough and runs a shortwave east.

This develops into a Channel low type feature which allegedly delivers some snow on its northern flank !

Putting aside this change it refuses to back the ECM and keeps the jet much further south .