Model output discussion 02/02/20

[XLNC]

All though I take it with a pinch of salt being a week away, it does look a pretty snowy chart.

[Singularity]

Surprised at the lack of comment on ECM and UKMO adding a nasty secondary low on the S flank of the major low this Sunday. 
 

That really ups the ante for the UK, especially Scotland. It’s the kind of finer detail that can take until a few days range to pin down.

With which in mind - I’m not resting easy on next week yet, severe wind-wise. Though it does look that the mean major low position has shifted markedly west - hence its looking increasingly mild again too. 

GFS’ immense Euro high longer-term is likely down to it imitating a strong MJO phases 5-6, which promotes that sort of thing prior to a shift to HLB patterns of the MJO holds high amplitude right through phase 7, ideally 8 too.

[Ice Day]

So 18z Icon is showing 100-150kph winds (55-95mph) winds across Ireland, North Wales and North West England for Sunday at 10:00hrs

16:00hrs - 150kph across southern Scotland with 100+kph widely across the rest of the UK.  Dangerous storm this one.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Ice Day

[Mr Frost]

There is a wee wind starter to keep an eye on before the main course arrives through Sunday 

Saturday afternoon/evening/night could see gusts reaching 65mph +

 

England/Wales get the main wind action on this run! 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Griff]

Glad you don't see this everyday. 

[shaky]

Fantastic 18z if snow showers is your thing!!no storm next week on the 18z up to 156 hours so far!!sunday looking very stormy though!

[nick sussex]

Similar overall from the GFS18 hrs run although it’s more amplified upstream with the Newfoundland low around day 6 into 7 .

Still a chance we could see a bit more amplification around that timeframe which would downstream force the low to the nw to track more se . 

Can we manage a more slider low . The day 6 into 7 gives a small chance to develop a better ridge ahead of it , it’s at that point where some energy wants to dig more s sw into the Atlantic.

The end point is still likely to be similar given the strong signal to reform the PV but its a case of trying to squeeze as much out of this for coldies before then .

[Weegaz]

Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week 

Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week 

Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

Was wondering the same thing mate!!expected more posts on the 18z!!there were posts galore just 24 hours ago when there was a dangerous storm forecast for next week but now that its gone everythings gone quiet!!personally i prefer what the charts are showing on the 18z rather than that horrendous storm!!

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was wondering the same thing mate!!expected more posts on the 18z!!there were posts galore just 24 hours ago when there was a dangerous storm forecast for next week but now that its gone everythings gone quiet!!personally i prefer what the charts are showing on the 18z rather than that horrendous storm!!

That's because a large number are from the south Eastern quarter and those charts illustrate how likely we are. Not to see a sausage let alone a Murr Sausage! 

[Beanz]

12 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week 

Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks

Probably because they’re a downgrade from the 12z and they’re still too far out to be believable, particularly given the number of false starts we’ve seen this winter.  

I suspect we’re all a little bit secretly excited to see them mind

[nick sussex]

Unfortunately on iPad so can’t do one of my paint jobs !

However if look at the NH view of the ECM at day 7 .

The important bit is the ridge between the low near Newfoundland and the one to the nw of the UK .

If we can get that more amplified then the low to the nw will be forced to track more se and more amplification will also slow the upstream pattern .

If you then look at the day 8 on the ECM you can then correct the main features , the deep looking trough to the west will be a bit sharper and further west , the low near the UK would have tracked further south . 

I’m only highlighting this because it’s really a solution that’s within the possibilities of the current pattern and doesn’t need a big change .

Buying a bit more time let’s say , because the PV is going to reform unless the models have got this totally wrong .

Anyway let’s see if there’s any mileage in that in the morning . The ECM has hardly had its reputation enhanced over the winter with its better trends not lasting very long!

[CheesepuffScott]

Looking a little warm out in fantasy island. Will it disappear or we will count this down to 0? I do recall last year’s Feb warmth being spotted in a similar timeframe. Who knows.

[leedsnowfan]

18z GFS showing strongest winds over SE Coasts on sunday 1800hrs....

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately on iPad so can’t do one of my paint jobs !

However if look at the NH view of the ECM at day 7 .

The important bit is the ridge between the low near Newfoundland and the one to the nw of the UK .

If we can get that more amplified then the low to the nw will be forced to track more se and more amplification will also slow the upstream pattern .

If you then look at the day 8 on the ECM you can then correct the main features , the deep looking trough to the west will be a bit sharper and further west , the low near the UK would have tracked further south . 

I’m only highlighting this because it’s really a solution that’s within the possibilities of the current pattern and doesn’t need a big change .

Buying a bit more time let’s say , because the PV is going to reform unless the models have got this totally wrong .

Anyway let’s see if there’s any mileage in that in the morning . The ECM has hardly had its reputation enhanced over the winter with its better trends not lasting very long!

It's a possibility Nick as some of the gefs ens are showing this at 192

this what we need to see in subsequent runs to slow the pattern down a bit

the MJO is certainly going for an amplified pattern off the scale into phase 7 of which is good viewing but until the ecm comes on board then i am not budging off the fence in this moment in time

that all speculation at the moment so i am looking forward to early next week,i have not viewed my lamp post at all since i have moved here to my new house back in June 

 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Looking a little warm out in fantasy island. Will it disappear or we will count this down to 0? I do recall last year’s Feb warmth being spotted in a similar timeframe. Who knows.

 

I think you are correct there as I also recall it being spotted around this time!

[nick sussex]

18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's a possibility Nick as some of the gefs ens are showing this at 192

this what we need to see in subsequent runs to slow the pattern down a bit

the MJO is certainly going for an amplified pattern off the scale into phase 7 of which is good viewing but until the ecm comes on board then i am not budging off the fence in this moment in time

that all speculation at the moment so i am looking forward to early next week,i have not viewed my lamp post at all since i have moved here to my new house back in June 

 

Happy lamppost viewing ! 

The GEFS are throwing up a few more better solutions but I’ve seen this before on the 18hrs runs which don’t survive till the morning . We are still talking though of just extending the cold by a day or so .

I can’t see the models being wrong with the reforming PV . At the moment we’re seeing a steep increase in the AO followed by a quick decline . So whether the models are handling that well time will tell.

In terms of the MJO what’s apparently muddying the waters are Rossby waves which are causing the modelling problems .

The expert at NCEP suggested the different wave breaking Rossby forecasts in the eastern Pacific  between the outputs are most likely to be the issue .

At the moment they seem to think the ECM forecast is more likely.

The last event however saw the GFS lead the way with the MJO signal at least in terms of moving more quickly through the unfavorable phases , it’s issue was when it hit phase 7.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by nick sussex

[Allseasons-Si]

Talk about Topsy-turvy weather,just look at that,at least the cold is prolonged a day or two next week

                        18z tonight                              v's                           18z last night

         

get your camera's out next week for the snow before heading down to the beach

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Happy lamppost viewing ! 

The GEFS are throwing up a few more better solutions but I’ve seen this before on the 18hrs runs which don’t survive till the morning . We are still talking though of just extending the cold by a day or so .

I can’t see the models being wrong with the reforming PV . At the moment we’re seeing a steep increase in the AO followed by a quick decline . So whether the models are handling that well time will tell.

In terms of the MJO what’s apparently muddying the waters are Rossby waves which are causing the modelling problems .

The expert at NCEP suggested the different wave breaking Rossby forecasts in the eastern Pacific  between the outputs are most likely to be the issue .

At the moment they seem to think the ECM forecast is more likely.

The last event however saw the GFS lead the way with the MJO signal at least in terms of moving more quickly through the unfavorable phases , it’s issue was when it hit phase 7.

 

There is a lag time of 10-12 days though Nick and the models will not see this yet but like you say,it hit the buffers last time,lets hope the polar express doesn't hit the brakes this time

lets just see what happens in terms of getting or squeezing a more amplified trough out west,it's still in the realms of fl so best to wait a few days.

[LRD]

11 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Seeing talk of heatwaves yet there is no heatwaves showing in the models. 

Don't see any massive cold plunges either but theres been slight hints or there we may see something upstream which could favour a northerly plunge by week 3 of Feb but I would say those odds are slim at this stage. 

Either way a deep low is on the way for Sunday and into Monday and a chance of some decent convective weather also, would love to be on the West Coast of Ireland seeing those beefy showers heading in from the Atlantic and feel the force of that wind. 

 

Equally I'm not sure where you're seeing a northerly. I think my heatwave (and I use the word slightly tongue in cheek anyway) is more likely than your northerly

Edited February 6, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Personal comments removed.

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

 

Equally I'm not sure where you're seeing a northerly. I think my heatwave (and I use the word slightly tongue in cheek anyway) is more likely than your northerly

 Panel for that tplus suggest little in terms of cold wrt to temp 2m. Doesn’t suggest 20 degrees either I would suggest but mild not cold going by this. 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box edited.

[Kentspur]

Now then what's this from ECM on Valentines a brief North to NEly?

[snowstorm27x]

Nice upgrade for Snow prospects this morning gfs extends the snow risk all the way to Thursdsy night. So we have a window from Monday to Thursday night obviously higher ground is favoured but dont be surprised to see low level snow even in the South. We worry so much what might happen in deep FI. We should enjoy the now wich gives us all a great chance of the White stuff.

 

 

[Griff]

I'm surprised that there isn't more interest here today 

[ICE COLD]

Will it get any closer or stay at days 9 and 10 . A lot better tho from the ECM this morning.