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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, LRD said:

That June chart you posted from CFS isn't that far away from a long southerly draw, though. That low anomaly only has to be slightly (in global terms) to the west and bingo! Heatwave!

Wet though because a mean chart like that would mean the upper trough would make inroads into the UKfrom time to time moving over some serios heat giving some big thundery convections

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This looks tasty...tasty, tasty...very, very tasty!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

bran flakes advert c 1984 .... lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

Which begs the question surely there should be some tweaks and modifications made to the way these models handle their data. In other words a milder bias so that they are less likely to pick up on phantom cold signals. This is turn would reduce the number of cold patterns or scenarios being presented when the reality is much more likely to manifest as milder as has so often been the case..... 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Now what’s the betting this will verify. +13 uppers into the south . This winter has been a joke . 

C380A453-D357-4444-AE79-76818EB66D0B.png

170BC310-9D88-4950-8418-5F37FAD0775C.png

Lala land thankfully but if it comes off we into early summer or late spring. Winters never started hear we either stayed in Autumn or skipped straight to spring. At least we should have some interesting weather this weekend though.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

No deep low on ecm!where there was a 990mb deep low just of the eastern states yesterday on the 144 hour chart has now been replaced with a high at 1030mb!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

No deep low on ecm!where there was a 990mb deep low just of the eastern states yesterday on the 144 hour chart has now been replaced with a high at 1030mb!!

Not necessarily a deep low but there is definitely a low just off of Newfoundland on the ECM 144? I think it might have Scotland's name on it!

image.thumb.png.fcdb1ad01c5784b6dbae319417f54018.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Not necessarily a deep low but there is definitely a low just off of Newfoundland on the ECM 144? I think it might have Scotland's name on it!

image.thumb.png.fcdb1ad01c5784b6dbae319417f54018.png

Compared the 144 hour chart to todays 120 hours chart and its quiet a big difference across the state!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Compared the 144 hour chart to todays 120 hours chart and its quiet a big difference across the state!!

Ah, yes, understood

ECM 168. I reckon that low will turn NE from there. Just look at the sheer scale of the tropical high pressure belt between the Med, Spain and the US. Extreme in its own tedious way

image.thumb.png.16149a7d01021db3c783ac47a23d06ae.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Ah, yes, understood

ECM 168. I reckon that low will turn NE from there. Just look at the sheer scale of the tropical high pressure belt between the Med, Spain and the US. Extreme in its own tedious way

image.thumb.png.16149a7d01021db3c783ac47a23d06ae.png

Or maybe not...

image.thumb.png.12edee149da32ae8915ed8877a7c898f.png

A wet and windy old period coming up. Interesting weather in its own right and in the absence of cold

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Sunday really does look wild on the latest ECM:

Scotland:

008C1DD8-E630-473E-AEE4-713B6FC9989B.thumb.png.63ee41602a9559890f9ade6c10589009.png

England, Ireland, NI and Wales:

1A3F811E-9FFE-4C96-BDAB-F281AE79E76B.thumb.png.18496d5f7785fba543408f0c1f173be5.png
 

Heavy rain/sleet/snow showers piling in for Monday and Tuesday! 

3203A665-78B1-4ACD-82E7-B7CA7B5F0942.thumb.png.f04eb7f302f0e56f8cc5b358e6d34463.pngB028B5F6-5071-478D-80CE-C64DD5F4E73A.thumb.png.1c2e3a04b8d8052a1560d117a01f00c7.png
 

Bring on some exciting weather at last! 

I'm struggling with  that matrix  is that 70mph +  across the midlands?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looks like the models are coming to grips with the upstream flow and agree on the (delayed) storm; at T168 both models now similar in track and timings though issues re phasing:

ECE1-168.thumb.gif.7ccd9cdc1e00c66bfec08b49140bd0f3.gifgfseu-0-168.thumb.png.242ab92dec4c5882d5e9a8e981028cf6.png:

So by D8 when it hits the UK:

ECE1-192.thumb.gif.f290ad50bffbe863b1e5625da4abb91c.gifgfseu-0-192.thumb.png.2eda5324656a643411945b84e3d511ad.png

Doubt either are correct at this range; to be continued...

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'm struggling with  that matrix  is that 70mph +  across the midlands?

Indeed! 70/75mph gusts - wild stuff through that area if these charts become reality.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Further evidence from the 12z runs for a possible 'heatwave' mid/late Feb. ECM shows a strong pressure build from the SW. You can see a tropical draw easily forming out of that another 48 hours down the line

image.thumb.png.6ad5da210bdab72680bcdc71b40a06f2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Now what’s the betting this will verify. +13 uppers into the south . This winter has been a joke . 

C380A453-D357-4444-AE79-76818EB66D0B.png

170BC310-9D88-4950-8418-5F37FAD0775C.png

Wouldn’t be surprised if it does verify, but I seriously hope it doesn’t!  Would we exceed the temps recorded last February with that set up?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Further evidence from the 12z runs for a possible 'heatwave' mid/late Feb. ECM shows a strong pressure build from the SW. You can see a tropical draw easily forming out of that another 48 hours down the line

image.thumb.png.6ad5da210bdab72680bcdc71b40a06f2.png

Yes, the GEFS have been signposting this since the pre-weekend and it was only not stronger due to some of the members not handling the modelling of the Pacific wave breaking. The op and many members now coming together and this pattern change now more obvious:

anim_kkg9.gif

That is a strong mean anomaly. Too early to work out surface temps, but warm uppers definitely in the mix. A blocked pattern with an Atlantic trough so killing off some days of what winter we have left. Usually good verification on this setup so expecting 5-days plus ATM.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM pretty consistent with this mornings run .

Slightly better upstream at day 7 than the GFS .

The only thing upstream that could perhaps develop more favourably is the amplitude of the low near Newfoundland and how that phases with the chunk of PV .

If and it’s a big if . If we see more amplitude at that point the downstream impact on the low nw of Ireland would be to alter its track and develop a stronger ridge to the west of it .

This could help extend the cold. We might still end up at the same point later but it’s really about squeezing out as much interest before the PV takes over once again !

So Newfoundland area day 7 into 8 is something to keep an eye on . The more energy digs s/sw the better the downstream set up.

Apart from that area I can’t see much else at present which might improve things even temporarily and is within the scope of the overall pattern.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
12 minutes ago, Don said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if it does verify, but I seriously hope it doesn’t!  Would we exceed the temps recorded last February with that set up?

Don't be surprised to see it verify. Nothing to do with the fact that it's showing unseasonable warmth and 'that would be just typical for it to verify' but because it's the obvious trend. It would be totally crap but still incredible if the last week or so of February gave us a 'heatwave' for the 2nd year running. Utterly incredible and, again, extreme in its own way

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, LRD said:

Don't be surprised to see it verify. Nothing to do with the fact that it's showing unseasonable warmth and 'that would be just typical for it to verify' but because it's the obvious trend. It would be utterly crap but still incredible if the last week or so of February gave us a 'heatwave' for the 2nd year running. Utterly incredible and, again, extreme in its own way

I quite agree and it would certainly be alarming if it were to occur again so soon!  What were the uppers during the February ‘heatwave’ last year?

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
12 minutes ago, Don said:

I quite agree and it would certainly be alarming if it were to occur again so soon!  What were the uppers during the February ‘heatwave’ last year?

Far too warm 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Should we not be discussing next week rather than what might happen after? As we do have quite a bit going on early next week for a change 

so looks like some quite wild weather Sunday then the possibility of snow for some, maybe Cheshire gap streamers? Hopefully surprises for many

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Seeing talk of heatwaves yet there is no heatwaves showing in the models. 

Don't see any massive cold plunges either but theres been slight hints or there we may see something upstream which could favour a northerly plunge by week 3 of Feb but I would say those odds are slim at this stage. 

Either way a deep low is on the way for Sunday and into Monday and a chance of some decent convective weather also, would love to be on the West Coast of Ireland seeing those beefy showers heading in from the Atlantic and feel the force of that wind. 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Personal comments removed.
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