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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

After this colder snap with that PM flow the models reform the PV and stick the blob of doom to the nw which is just about the worst place for it .

This then throws up some TM air ne ahead of it .

Unfortunately there seems a strong signal for that across the outputs . 

Let’s hope that earlier PM flow can throw up a few surprises because the outlook after that is pretty awful for cold .

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After this colder snap with that PM flow the models reform the PV and stick the blob of doom to the nw which is just about the worst place for it .

This then throws up some TM air ne ahead of it .

Unfortunately there seems a strong signal for that across the outputs . 

Let’s hope that earlier PM flow can throw up a few surprises because the outlook after that is pretty awful for cold .

 

 

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Funny thing is theres such strong support for a mild spell after next week that it will come true!!but if it was the other way around and it was mild next week and then the ensembles were showing rock solid support for cold 9 times out of 10 it will go tits up!!such a Tut take!!!

I would sacrifice the rest of Winter for a few potentially snowy days next week. Last flake was two years ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Quite often charts get mistakenly identified as showing a 'Bartlett High'

Identifying this vileness as a Bartlett wouldn't be a mistake

image.thumb.png.94350ae6a3907bcda75c4f643a531fa6.png

If winter finishes like this, I will put this season up there (or down there) with 1988-89 as the joint worst winter in my memory

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Just now, LRD said:

Quite often charts get mistakenly identified as showing a 'Bartlett High'

Identifying this vileness as a Bartlett wouldn't be a mistake

image.thumb.png.94350ae6a3907bcda75c4f643a531fa6.png

If winter finishes like this, I will put this season up there (or down there) with 1988-89 as the joint worst winter in my memory

And get to the summer months the low and high will swap places

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GEM continues with the longer term trend of utter guff

image.thumb.png.ccf665c51037031a17ee5211655783d3.png

As bad as it gets. It really is turgid, grim stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, joggs said:

And get to the summer months the low and high will swap places

I don't think I could handle yet another February heatwave!:olddoh:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think realistically the window of opportunity re the PM flow is  Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday of next week .

After that the PV reforms and it’s really downhill from there .

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This looks tasty...tasty, tasty...very, very tasty!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
10 minutes ago, joggs said:

And get to the summer months the low and high will swap places

Can't complain about recent summers down here in the tropical south. That's the flip/more positive side of the Azores High being increasingly dominant and bloated - although there's even a downside to that as it tends to kill of thunderstorm activity in the summer

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
10 minutes ago, LRD said:

GEM continues with the longer term trend of utter guff

image.thumb.png.ccf665c51037031a17ee5211655783d3.png

As bad as it gets. It really is turgid, grim stuff

Don’t panic,spring starts in just over 3 weeks,and watch the charts begin to start looking the complete opposite as we enter March.You can see how it will look by turning your screen upside down

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This looks tasty...tasty, tasty...very, very tasty!:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Be alot of cloud around and rain in Western areas, not exactly spring like conditions.

All that said its too far out and always subject to change. The models do want to try and break up the Arctic PV via a Pacific ridge but it does not look convincing and nor does it look like affecting our weather patterns at this stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t panic,spring starts in just over 3 weeks,and watch the charts begin to start looking the complete opposite as we enter March.You can see how it will look by turning your screen upside down

I don't mind a cold March. If we get cold in April, though, I really will be grumpy

I'm not sure where to find those CFS forecasts. Not that they're necessarily worth much but if they're there, we may as well use them

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I know the MJO has turned into the Star Wars prequels . Over hyped and failed to deliver , that’s  my opinion maybe some others liked them but anyway .

Theres a huge divergence in forecasts there . The GEFS run this into phase 7 at high amplitude . The rest are not interested .

The last MJO event was muted out by other factors so even if the GEFS is correct there aren’t guarantees that it will help change the pattern but at this point there’s not much else happening re way of emergency crumbs !

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, LRD said:

I don't mind a cold March. If we get cold in April, though, I really will be grumpy

I'm not sure where to find those CFS forecasts. Not that they're necessarily worth much but if they're there, we may as well use them

 

This is the CFS averaged anomaly for June...pretty typical low solar summer pattern

Screenshot_20200205-174624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.32d4f961c67e60f9411bfa6e2f1905d1.jpg

From the NOAA site.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

This is the CFS averaged anomaly for June...pretty typical low solar summer pattern

Screenshot_20200205-174624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.32d4f961c67e60f9411bfa6e2f1905d1.jpg

From the NOAA site.

This is exactly the kind of pattern i dread TBH.

Massive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

I hope it is wrong !!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This is the CFS averaged anomaly for June...pretty typical low solar summer pattern

Screenshot_20200205-174624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.32d4f961c67e60f9411bfa6e2f1905d1.jpg

From the NOAA site.

Yes - Corker!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is exactly the kind of pattern i dread TBH.

Massive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

I hope it is wrong !!

ensemble-probability-forecast-of-rainfal
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Model probabilistic guidance for temperature and rainfall up to six months ahead. Updated monthly.

Met Office going for dry for the next 3 months

Summer's too far away yet but their 4-6 month look looks normal/dry for April/May/June

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, LRD said:
ensemble-probability-forecast-of-rainfal
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Model probabilistic guidance for temperature and rainfall up to six months ahead. Updated monthly.

Met Office going for dry for the next 3 months

Summer's too far away yet but their 4-6 month look looks normal/dry for April/May/June

We'll see next update but I fully expect it to start showing heights in the N Atlantic/ to our N.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We'll see next update but I fully expect it to start showing heights in the N Atlantic/ to our N.

That June chart you posted from CFS isn't that far away from a long southerly draw, though. That low anomaly only has to be slightly (in global terms) to the west and bingo! Heatwave! Especially with a high anomaly hinted at just to our east

Edited by LRD
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