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Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The good news is this seems to hit overnight, for the worst conditions anyway.  Obviously still subject to change at this range.  Incredible gusts being shown, with 100mph winds across the south of England, Ireland and Wales

image.thumb.png.55513ff4efc48bf9eb5ee641b508a4fd.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Dangerous storm on the gfs  history maker   off the scale windspeeds  could be close to 180_200kmph   surely cant verify   then blizzard conditions at 180hrs  

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4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Just another 100 miles further south and it's blizzards across a large swathe of England. 

image.thumb.png.2fff65c61ca272b7a24652d318fb3e67.png

 

I agree > incidentally there was 1 model that did show this earlier - the JMA

DED71D3C-0755-42EF-A9CA-99C6A3584109.thumb.png.9aa8bdda3fd2693a2508aca62d66c13a.png

Incidentally the GFS is showing the largest wind zone in the southern zone which means on the northern side of the low could see a significant snow event as long as there isnt to much WAA ahead of it.

Elevation >250M would be pummelled on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Meanwhile, Scotland is busy trying to dig itself out...

Monday morning 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.7f070fd0ac166ebbac7c011a2d71a3d0.png

Tuesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.f29a1d97f63ed66010e61a25f6db86b2.png

Wednesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.af4682f57db5ca81826964e46e501d3b.png

Thursday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.4e6d88d221824ddfba2bda3b3690f805.png

Obviously these are not to be taken too literally, but I think it's likely that those north of the border are going to have a weather week to remember (as may the rest of the country?!)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Meanwhile, Scotland is busy trying to dig itself out...

Monday morning 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.7f070fd0ac166ebbac7c011a2d71a3d0.png

Tuesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.f29a1d97f63ed66010e61a25f6db86b2.png

Wednesday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.af4682f57db5ca81826964e46e501d3b.png

Thursday 01:00hrs

image.thumb.png.4e6d88d221824ddfba2bda3b3690f805.png

Obviously these are not to be taken too literally, but I think it's likely that those north of the border are going to have a weather week to remember (as may the rest of the country?!)

Good time to visit the highlands for some wild weather and deep snowfall, even the south gets in on the act with some settling snow on the 18z.

gfs-16-204.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
32 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Just another 100 miles further south and it's blizzards across a large swathe of England. 

image.thumb.png.2fff65c61ca272b7a24652d318fb3e67.png

 

Sorry but have you forgot Wales exists! ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ive skimmed the ENS.

This would be utterly crazy a 920MB storm hitting ireland with that wind field....

A7F8610B-82E1-4279-B643-01BD77E06F3D.thumb.jpeg.5466d56a9febe4a812063d734e732c0e.jpeg

Yes  and the chart after  spot the uk 

gens-2-1-180.png

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ive skimmed the ENS.

This would be utterly crazy a 920MB storm hitting ireland with that wind field....

A7F8610B-82E1-4279-B643-01BD77E06F3D.thumb.jpeg.5466d56a9febe4a812063d734e732c0e.jpeg

Im a noob here - and just learning TBH - but that deep a depression hitting the west coast of Ireland, in a westerly, would likely bring storm surges not seen since the 1960's - in particular the lower lying regions in Galway would see utter devastation. 

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Guest Delete Me

920mb pressure, whats that....Cat 4 hurricane?

Charts are madness this would be destructive and impressive.

Just waiting for the downgrades and for it to all go flat as a pancake!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare
  • Weather Preferences: Windy, rumbly, flashy or snowy.
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare

I'm a slight novice at this and, looking at those lows whilst mentally working out how to move my house away from the beach to behind something sheltered, I am intrigued by the fact the GFS and Icon overstate windspeeds. If this is the case then do any models knowingly understate it? X

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I wouldn't take much notice of a single perturbation, it's beyond what I would call a worst case scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

920mb pressure, whats that....Cat 4 hurricane?

Charts are madness this would be destructive and impressive.

Just waiting for the downgrades and for it to all go flat as a pancake!

I'd imagine the equivalent hurricane category to the chart Steve posted would be high end 3 or 4.

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Something like that would bring destruction. That is major hurricane strength winds.

I would imagine genuine blizzard conditions for Northern parts of the UK (especially with elevation) to boot?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't take much notice of a single perturbation, it's beyond what I would call a worst case scenario.

I agree. But just to see it in the ensembles is quite something.

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