Model output discussion 02/02/20

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Usual scenario is that lows tend to be downgraded nearer the time so let’s hope this is the same and it ends up shallower and further south. That way more of us get snow and less in the way of devastating severe gales ! 

I would like to see the low downgraded and to dig as far south as possible, let the French get any of the strong winds. (Sorry Nick).

It's bad enough here today with wheelie bins flying around again.

[Geordiesnow]

Even without the dartboard low, severe gales still look likely, I heard isobars with Stright lines that stretch for thousands of miles can produce stronger winds than it seems because there is little interruption in the airflow. Also depends how much of a squeeze we get also but its one to watch for sure. 

Also as I said yesterday, if the polar maritime Airflow sets up just right, the showers from the Atlantic should be mighty impressive, big clumps of convective showers which could produce quite a bit of snowfall for Western Scotland and Western parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland if the uppers do get cold enough. 

[weirpig]

Sunday evening on the icon   very windy everywhere  Esp the north of Scotland

[Mike Poole]

12z starting to roll, and a few thoughts about what we might see.

• So far, most models have brought pretty much the coldest air possible across the UK at about this time next week - obviously this is from the northwest so it's a challenge as to whether this is cold enough for low level snow, but with -6 and -8 uppers there's a very decent chance.  One does wonder if this direct hit might wander one way or the other before we count down to T0, hope not!
• The 'horror low' - some are saying that GFS always overblows lows, and my experience is that it does, but these are normally random standalone lows in FI, this low seems different to me, in that it is a feature that develops and engages and runs along with the main big vortex low - I'm not sure we have data as to how GFS or any other model handles these, so I think it is a question of wait and see.  
• There is no help imminent from the strat, the latest 0z analysis from stratobserve has the GFS heading to record zonal winds for the time of year!

Now to the ICON:

Winds and cold air on cue at T144 (for comparison with UKMO later!):

And the horror low, well look at this it is there heading right for us T168 on the 12z, totally absent at same time on 0z - this just got more probable for me...

Edited February 4, 2020 by Mike Poole

[weirpig]

Icon develops the troublesome low   lets see how this behaves

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Sunday evening on the icon   very windy everywhere  Esp the north of Scotland

I'm starting to get a tad worried that me roof is gonna go missing at some point next week. the models do seem to be firming up on this major storm and while i like extreme weather i'm not so sure i like the idea of an insurance claim...

[weirpig]

Just now, bigsnow said:

I'm starting to get a tad worried that me roof is gonna go missing at some point next week. the models do seem to be firming up on this major storm and while i like extreme weather i'm not so sure i like the idea of an insurance claim...

Indeed   but this is before the major low   

[radiohead]

12Z ICON is now developing the deep low that the GFS has been showing. It didn't appear on the 0Z ICON at all. Will be interesting to see how it progresses.

 

Edit : End of the run

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by radiohead

[weirpig]

Wow    thats going right through the Uk    100mph +

Edited February 4, 2020 by weirpig

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ICON is now developing the deep low that the GFS has been showing. It didn't appear on the 0Z ICON at all. Will be interesting to see how it progresses.

 

Edit : End of the run

 

Direct hit

[Mair Snaw]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wow    thats going right through the Uk    100mph +

The UK's trees will next week be relocated to Scandinavia... the models do not seem to be backing away from this stormy period. time to go stock up on the candles and get the generator ready.

[Fozfoster]

19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wow    thats going right through the Uk    100mph +

Sorry but its Km/h still worrying tho

[Buzz]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wow    thats going right through the Uk    100mph +

Those wnd speeds are km/h ..........

[weirpig]

Just now, bigsnow said:

The UK's trees will next week be relocated to Scandinavia... the models do not seem to be backing away from this stormy period. time to go stock up on the candles and get the generator ready.

Yes im not a huge fan of high winds   not that we get much in this neck of the woods anyway   Doris was the windiest ive seen for a while  and that topped out just over 70mph  This storm may will surpass that     Gulp

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Those wnd speeds are km/h ..........

Yes  But converted into Mph  it will be close to 100mph    160 kmph   difficult to be spot on with the colour matrix

Edited February 4, 2020 by weirpig

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Those wnd speeds are km/h ..........

180+ on the southern flank which is 100mph+

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yes  But converted into Mph  it will be close to 100mph

Yes 180kph

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Those wnd speeds are km/h ..........

yep so the pink area shows 150 to 180 km/h so about 100 to 120 mp/h... 80km/h is 50mp/h quick maths..

[Ruzzi]

2 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Sorry but its Km/h still worrying tho

 

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Those wnd speeds are km/h ..........

 

I think that is realised from the initial post as winds on the chart are showing at around 160-180 kph, hence in excess of 100mph. Very very noteworthy storm indeed if it comes to pass. Add in some constant heavy convective snow showers for a 48 hour period and there will undoubtedly be some places needing seriously dug out. 

[frosty ground]

This morning GEM has a rather southerly track

[ancientsolar]

in regards to such high winds and I believe it’s been said about cold uppers and convective 

 

if not snow for the south .. wouldn’t that potentially cause damaging hail flying at us at 100mph ?

[Mair Snaw]

4 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

 

 

I think that is realised from the initial post as winds on the chart are showing at around 160-180 kph, hence in excess of 100mph. Very very noteworthy storm indeed if it comes to pass. Add in some constant heavy convective snow showers for a 48 hour period and there will undoubtedly be some places needing seriously dug out. 

your hoping now....lol whoops sorry mods thought i was in the scotland thread for a min. feel free to remove if you must..

Edited February 4, 2020 by bigsnow

[weirpig]

Just now, ancientsolar said:

in regards to such high winds and I believe it’s been said about cold uppers and convective 

 

if not snow for the south .. wouldn’t that potentially cause damaging hail flying at us at 100mph ?

Crikey i hope not   imagine the hail stones Austrailia had a few weeks back    it will be like facing babe Ruth in a telephone box 

[radiohead]

12Z ICON has peak gusts of 193 kph at the end of the run with the storm still off shore.

[weirpig]

Just now, radiohead said:

12Z ICON has peak gusts of 193 kph at the end of the run with the storm still off shore.

Wow  120mph   of course it would moderate somewhat inland  however that is very severe   for fun that is  53 metres per second