Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Zak M]

Some lower ground snow accumulations possible in the north perhaps?

[Griff]

Off it goes

[Griff]

On 05/03/2020 at 23:17, feb1991blizzard said:

Another cold GFS run again. in snaps rather than uniformly cold is a recurrent theme now for quite a few runs.

This again on the latest, what's to bet the next run goes for warm and settled... My worry is it averages out as flat, wet and westerly! 

[Griff]

JFF

[Allseasons-Si]

What a 06z run this is with snow showers packing in from the NE

all JFF though,lets see what the gefs ens show later,i would suspect that it will be a cold outlier.

[snowray]

Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!

 

 

 

[snowray]

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What a 06z run this is with snow showers packing in from the NE

all JFF though,lets see what the gefs ens show later,i would suspect that it will be a cold outlier.

This is even better than last nights 18z run that turned out a near miss. Really would be nice if the 12z runs started to show something similar, not just the second rate 18z and 06z runs. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by snowray

[PiscesStar]

34 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!

 

 

 

It's gone beyond a joke now. Should be threatened with being reprogrammed if it cannot behave reasonably.. 

[Don]

35 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!

 

GFS FI charts should be banned!

[Zak M]

Some nice charts from the GFS 06z today.

On Tuesday, it could be a pretty mild or perhaps warm in places, with the peak temperature reaching 17c near the Lincolnshire/Yorkshire area.

 

 

Some more settled air will push northwards towards the UK on day 10, meaning more settled and perhaps milder/sunnier weather.

 

 

And then after, some cold air will start to dig in on days 14 and 15

 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Zak M

[Methuselah]

I thought I'd wait for the ensembles before posting on the 06Z:

As Matt says (and as the GFS has been steadfastly predicting for what seems like weeks!) Tuesday looks like being something of a stonker:

    

But, after that, things get a lot more confusing: does the Operational become a cold outlier?

T+216:     

T+321:     

T+384:     

 GEFS:  

So, not an outlier...but it's still flipped 'cold'!

[Griff]

52 minutes ago, Don said:

GFS FI charts should be banned!

But then I wouldn't have a hobby and would have to talk with my loved ones...  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

JFF

 

 

Look how close those negative mid teens uppers are!

[Banbury]

2 months too late 

[Mike Poole]

I've not posted for a while, and have watched these FI cold runs, and indeed settled runs without much enthusiasm because I think they are false - from all models not just the GFS, they haven't verified so far the last two or three months, what needs to change for them to occasionally verify now?

Let's have another look at the strat zonal winds chart:

The blue bit, real data, is just bonkers.  GFS forecast in red.  While this beast is whirling away, model solutions showing high lat blocking or even mid lat blocking have proved to be spurious and will continue to be so in my opinion until the vortex starts to die.  GEFS take:

Maybe, just maybe, these are showing a more significant decline now.  So the runs in FI might soon have a chance of verifying.  GFS 6z at T348:

Looks to me on this run more of a petering out of the strat vortex rather than a dynamical final warming, and probably too late in this run to deliver the trop scenario pictured at the same time, but my eyes on spring and summer now, and the strat not rocking the boat much now would be a very good thing as we transition to summer patterns.

[Singularity]

Looks like we’ll continue to dance with teasingly cold (snow possible on high ground at times) polar maritime air masses for a bit longer in between warm sectors, due to the record-strong polar vortex, but perhaps with a trend toward more high pressure with time and the PM air tending to be more ‘relaxed’.

Models suggesting some reduction in zonality of flow for the week after next but I’m not sure what that would be driven by while the polar vortex weakens only gradually. Tropics are quiet and AAM undertaking weak orbits.

Hoping we don’t see many easterlies this month; with the big snow deficits out east and warmer than usual terrain, air from that way is more likely to be dank and cool than crisp and snow-friendly.

[Zak M]

Interesting run!

  

All eyes on the 12z run now and whether it still shows this. Probably won't!

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey up!!!

now then what is the 12z ICON up to,it's certainly different to this morning's run with a ridge amplifying in the Atlantic.

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

scandi ridge colder by mid march then perhaps there all trending colder.

[Methuselah]

Right then (according to the GFS 12Z) after some possible wintriness anytime until T+200-ish, it's Hoped that high pressure will migrate from the SW and drift into Scandinavia, drawing-in some quite cold surface air?...So nowt too warm, but nothing desperately cold either. I hope!

T+201:      

T+252:      

T+312:      

T+342:      

T+384:      

But at least it'll be drier!

[feb1991blizzard]

Meanwhile @nick sussex ECM jumps aboard the cold NE flow ship - just to take you off the other thread!

[ICE COLD]

ECM showing a NE now . With a bit more amplification earlier on and it could be even better . 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM showing a NE now . With a bit more amplification earlier on and it could be even better . 

 

 

 

Aww how cute, a bunny rabbit, it's not Easter just yet ECM!

Lets hope its not an outlier now.

 

[Cloud 10]

Even the UKMO is not without interest going forward.Maybe a mad March coming up?

 

[Zak M]

I don't really look at the GEFS ensembles too much, but what's happening there on day 8?

 

I like this, however:

Edited March 7, 2020 by Zak M