Model output discussion 02/02/20

[SLEETY]

Not bad end to the ECM either after the stormy period, which could be severe but too far out yet for any accurate forecast to be made. 

[Mr Frost]

Living on the West Coast of Scotland...might not be a good idea to take my two year old son a wee walk with his kite during these few days...
 

ECM:

 

Wild stuff with rain/hail/sleet/snow! (Blizzards over high ground)

Looking forward to it! (If it indeed becomes reality)

Have a good night everyone!

[Mike Poole]

Well the fun all seems to start properly next Monday, so here's the ECM at T168:

Pretty much as all the other models at this point, there is consistency also about the T850s at this time T168 as far as they impact the UK:

GFS the coldest, but all of this will probably be marginal at best for snow at lower levels, if the pattern persists, then the shorter range models may help, and with wind strength too, looks a wild period of weather throughout next week whatever!

I wonder if there is a chance the trop vortex might be about to blow itself to bits with this onslaught, ECM T240: 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Mike Poole
To add JMA chart T168

[SMU]

ECM Day 9 > 10 continues to show promise with some mediocre heights in situ to the North & some atlantic ridging. 
At the very least perhaps some snow for Ireland & the west day 10.

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if there is a chance the trop vortex might be about to blow itself to bits with this onslaught, ECM T240: 

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line?  Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.  

[radiohead]

12Z ECM also features that major storm shown on the GFS and GEM but it's further north on this model.

High ground in Western Scotland with gusts up to 208 kph.

[nick sussex]

Good agreement on a wild spell of weather but differences emerge towards day ten .

The GFS might have the colder uppers and that raging storm but after that its NH picture at day ten is awful for cold .

The ECM has less excitement or as the case might be less to fear depending on whether you like having your roof blown off ! 

But at day ten is much  better than the GFS in terms of the PV and colder prospects going forward .

You can generally correlate cold prospects in a more zonal pattern with one look at the PV set up and any associated wedges of heights to the north and ne .

You need some forcing on the jet to push this south and you’d want a jet track more se near the UK .

By day ten the GFS is losing those wedges and reforming the PV , downhill from there.

The ECM is better as the PV remains disrupted with the profile much better to the north .

Of course we’ve seen this from the ECM countless times this winter , and the better output at day ten doesn’t last past a day . So of course it’s a case of waiting a few runs to see whether it’s onto something or whether this is another of its long list of one hit wonders ! 

 

[Tim Bland]

Plenty in the North. ECM also has showers turning wintry as far south as the midlands early next week

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM Day 9 > 10 continues to show promise with some mediocre heights in situ to the North & some atlantic ridging. 
At the very least perhaps some snow for Ireland & the west day 10.

It shows even more promise for people in Western Scotland who are a fan of Category 5 hurricane strength winds!

[Zak M]

Tomorrow in the morning, there will be plenty of showers across the UK, followed by a very cold, strong wind. Some of these showers across Scotland or Northern Ireland could turn wintry over the hills. Elsewhere, in England, there will also be showers, although with some bright morning sunshine inbetween these showers. Feeling also very cold in these areas too, with temperatures ranging 2-5c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 3-7c in England. 

Into the afternoon, the showers, that could turn wintry over hills, will spread southwards with the cold wind. Most of the showers/snow showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland will fade away, leaving a dry and sunny afternoon for most areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It's the same story for parts of Northern and Southern England too, as the showers will fade away, leaving some sunshine and patchy cloud. Temperatures in the afternoon should range from 5-10c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 6-11c in Northern and Southern England. However, the bitterly cold wind will make the temperatures feel like a few degrees lower than they actually are.

Into the evening, some showers will continue over Scotland, with a chance of them being wintry over the hills. Northern Ireland and Northern/Southern England will have a fine and dry evening, with some late sunshine to enjoy in some areas. Although, once again with the bitterly cold wind, it will feel freezing out there. There also is a chance that some places will see frost overnight and into Wednesday. Temperatures in the evening in Scotland and Northern Ireland should range from 2-6c, and the temperatures in Northern/Southern England should range from 3-7c.

Sea level pressure:

Jet stream:

Max temperature:

Precipitation:

HGT500 and and sea level pressure:

Edited February 3, 2020 by Zak M

[nick sussex]

The GFS storm given its depth and track would effect a huge amount of people and is really a horror show.

Although as a wind phobic that’s really a personal point . I know some people love to see these storms .

 

[MildCarlilse]

22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Living on the West Coast of Scotland...might not be a good idea to take my two year old son a wee walk with his kite during these few days...
 

ECM:

 

Wild stuff with rain/hail/sleet/snow! (Blizzards over high ground)

Looking forward to it! (If it indeed becomes reality)

Have a good night everyone!

Also,Spring tides set to join the party.

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS storm given its depth and track would effect a huge amount of people and is really a horror show.

Although as a wind phobic that’s really a personal point . I know some people love to see these storms .

 

Ancraophobia is what you have then.

[Mair Snaw]

43 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line?  Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.  

Indeed the bigger the balloon the louder the bang when it pops. also just to add i have Snaw falling right now.. didnt see that coming in any of the model output so just goes to show that the models do not see everything and surprises do happen.

Edited February 3, 2020 by bigsnow

[pinball wizard]

Some stormy charts from most models for next week but, and its a big but, when have we had a chart for the Uk verify at 8 days out this winter? Surely much like our 8 days out cold snaps this storm will get watered down somewhat? 

[mulzy]

Ext EPS - Goodnight Charlie!

Strong Euro heights with low heights to the south of Greenland!  Very, very ugly!

Edited February 3, 2020 by mulzy

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line?  Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.  

 

37 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Indeed the bigger the balloon the louder the bang when it pops. also just to add i have Snaw falling right now.. didnt see that coming in any of the model output so just goes to show that the models do not see everything and surprises do happen.

Yes, that is what I've been musing last day or two.  There seems to be an implicit assumption that if there is to be a sting in the tail of this abysmal winter, it would have to come via events in the strat...well there is no sign of that in the immediate or even medium future.  

But there have been a couple of interesting signs that the trop vortex might destabilise after next week's shenanigans, two examples from GFS FI which I posted yesterday:

ECM T240 headed that way? Way, way to soon to tell, but it is something to watch.  But much interest, first, in next weeks storminess...

Edited February 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - Goodnight Charlie!

Strong Euro heights with low heights to the south of Greenland!  Very, very ugly!

Any signs on many members of that stonking big Alaskan ridge ridging right into the pole and pushing the Jet on a Southerly track and splitting the PV like on some GEFS members over the last 24 hours?

[Dennis]

7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Dennis. Any idea what the composites look like for late Feb/Early Mar for high amplitude 7-8-1 (If it were to occur?)

im afraid that 7/8/1 will be very difficult to reach...

[Mike Poole]

Some serious attempt here to get really cold air (given the source) in to the UK, angle of attack looks sharper, and it might be a bit windy, pub run T162:

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Some serious attempt here to get really cold air (given the source) in to the UK, angle of attack looks sharper, and it might be a bit windy, pub run T162:

Yes all looks ever so slightly further south to me

[Ice Day]

The pub run at 162, that really is some sight.  The low pressure system is bigger than Europe!

 

Proper blizzards at elevation in the north of the country.

[Mike Poole]

Well T180 we've got -6 uppers over the whole country, and goodness knows what level of precipitation, still marginal for many without altitude, doubtless some or even many surprises with that though, this is as direct hit as you could get with this setup I think. 

And there's an interesting feature to come a thousand miles west or so...

Edited February 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

Well the storm for the 21 February is still there.  Not sure what the central pressure is showing, but that would be serious if it came off as modelled here

Edit - 955 by the looks of it 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Ice Day

[booferking]

Yep good bye Ireland.