Model output discussion 02/02/20

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The GFS has done it again.

Winds are off the scale on Meteociel

 

 

Ooh - 100mph winds! Burns Night 1990 or 1987 Michael Fish 'hurricane' redux? 

[ICE COLD]

Wow now this will cause carnage nationwide from snow to rain to extreme wind speeds . Bring it on

[Snow Queen one]

Well you lot up north may be in for a treat, but us in the SE are looking to get very wet.  Shame really I hate wind and rain together.  The models have been hinting a bit of white stuff might reach us here but i doubt it.  The pic below is the best for my area.  Not to be taken as right mind you just a guide.

 

[Met4Cast]

Hmm.. 

Not sure which cluster to plump for; We have 6 possibilities and they're all zonal.

[stodge]

Morning all

The GFS 06Z is in deep FI but in the short term the broad picture is quite clear - a midweek push of HP gives us 3-4 calm days especially in the south and east before the Atlantic takes over with a vengeance next week.

It's going to be hard to give detailed predictions for the timing and impact of secondary LP at this time but they look the most potent aspect as the main monster LP churns away to the north and north west. Rapid cyclogenesis in mid-Atlantic could well create "bomb" type storms which would pass from SW to NE across the country bringing spells of very strong (if not damaging) winds, heavy rain and snow for highest elevations.

So how does this end? Eventually, the Atlantic will lose its speed, perhaps quite rapidly and the rapid amplification could well encourage a new mid-latitude HP to develop close to the British Isles. As the Atlantic slows and amplifies, the trough will dig south and that will further encourage anticyclonic development. Is it going to work in our favour and allow a change of air source? Maybe, maybe not - a relaxing weakening TPV shifting west into northern Canada would encourage a build of HP over Scandinavia and it may be we end up with a mid-latitude HP oscillating between Scandinavia and the British isles (with always that hint/hope of retrogression to Greenland that so rarely comes off).

For now, batten down the hatches for next week as it's going to be wild especially (but not exclusively) for western coastal areas.

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hmm.. 

Not sure which cluster to plump for; We have 6 possibilities and they're all zonal.

I think around D9 there is as close to 100% support, and has been for a while, that zonal is what is coming:

The above means confirm this and we are aware that models verify very well in zonal (westerly) setups. The main variables are timings, forcing (Pacific and Arctic), LP systems and those ripples in the flow. The jet is on full throttle and there is cold air close by, so potential is there with the right mix especially for Scotland.

After D10; the consistency on the ops are a continuation of the Pacific High, the tPV becoming less dominant and the net result for our sector, possibly anomalous heights (Azores>Iberian) as the tPV relents, allowing the heights to the south to resurge:

So if northern blocking is coming in February it is going to be in the last week based on current modelling.

[Snowy Hibbo]

 

The positive AAM anomalies are resuming in the extratropics (at a similar latitude to the UK), which is partially behind the continued and now reinforced +NAO flow. In order for the UK winter pattern to be changed, we need those tropical +AAM transports to move north and -AAM deposits establish close to the poles to help to dislodge the strong tropospheric polar vortex.

 

Looking at the top chart’s upward trend, which shows a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex, we are running out of options, except looking towards a consistent zonal outlook. However later in February may be more interesting in terms of the strat.

More details here on my blog for UK/Europe:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/03/europe-on-the-long-term-3rd-feb-2/
 

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

The positive AAM anomalies are resuming in the extratropics (at a similar latitude to the UK), which is partially behind the continued and now reinforced +NAO flow. In order for the UK winter pattern to be changed, we need those tropical +AAM transports to move north and -AAM deposits establish close to the poles to help to dislodge the strong tropospheric polar vortex.

 

Looking at the top chart’s upward trend, which shows a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex, we are running out of options, except looking towards a consistent zonal outlook. However later in February may be more interesting in terms of the strat.

More details here on my blog for UK/Europe:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/03/europe-on-the-long-term-3rd-feb-2/
 

Perhaps after mid-month we may see things (finally) start to quieten down:



From this monster vortex..



To perhaps this....something a bit more in line with late February:

[Methuselah]

So, after 14 days' wind, rain, sleet and other garbage, today's GEF 06Z at least ends on a half-decent note...

     

If only I had even a modicum of belief that it'll verify!

[Beanz]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

near the top left corner is my location which I highlighted in green circle, EC is showing snow depth around 7cm until Wednesday morning,but it is very close and depends on the trajectory of a small low pressure area

Ah ok, It doesn't show your location when reading on a mobile device so I was confused - obviously being UK centric!  

Not irrelevant at all 

 

[Mapantz]

Several posts moved to the moans/banter/chat thread. Keep it to model discussion please folks, not why you like/dislike the type of weather on offer.

Ta.

[Mair Snaw]

Given the GFS has a tendency to over do lows from the Atlantic i wouldnt get too worried yet, if its still there in a few days and other models are looking similar then maybe. something to keep an eye on.

[Dennis]

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

 

[Snowyowl9]

Just look at that massive beast.

 

[mb018538]

There is still a general trend to increase pressure past mid month, as well as a reduction in ppn:



Once the mean goes above 1020mb it's usually a good sign, but at this range it could just be scatter and noise. One to keep tabs on for the next few days.

 

[Methuselah]

Thankfully, the 06Z op's T850s run very near the colder end of the ensembles:

    

And so, thank goodness does the SLP: 

    

Plenty of grounds for believing the operational might be over-egging things a tad?

[nick sussex]

I’d be wary of any snow potential until nearer the time because how far south the jet comes can often be overdone in these set ups .

The ECM and GFS seem to be alternating between flatter and more amplified solutions .

Highlighted by today’s 00hrs runs .

The ECM op has much more amplitude upstream . The day ten has a Canadian high and the PV being stretched and higher heights pushing into the Arctic from the Pacific side .

The low near Newfoundland is likely to phase with the chunk of PV and the day 11 would have shown the troughing over the UK pushed further se .

If offered I would take the ECM op at day ten but will that sort of set up survive till tonight .

The story of the winter so far has been the inability of the models to maintain much amplitude once they start counting down .

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Ooh - 100mph winds! Burns Night 1990 or 1987 Michael Fish 'hurricane' redux? 

Amazing the time wasted on posting these GFS maps that show hurricane force winds at day 8+ with the following apocalyptic warnings - a couple of times this has happened and nearer the time absolutely nothing like what was shown. I suppose it keeps some interest in this bore-fest winter. 

[nick sussex]

51 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

 

That’s a marked increase in speed of the MJO from yesterday . We saw the same with the previous MJO event . The forecasts then also wanted to drag out phases 4 and 5.

We can only hope that this time if the signal can get into the more favourable phases that it’s not stifled by other factors .

Edited February 3, 2020 by nick sussex

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

 

Hi Dennis. Any idea what the composites look like for late Feb/Early Mar for high amplitude 7-8-1 (If it were to occur?)

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Given the GFS has a tendency to over do lows from the Atlantic i wouldnt get too worried yet, if its still there in a few days and other models are looking similar then maybe. something to keep an eye on.

The Ecmwf and Gem have also shown stormy conditions for that time frame a couple of times aswell and with a powerful jetstream currently shown and a big contrast in upper air temperatures developing across the Atlantic through the weekend and early next week which I said yesterday ofcourse. Its no suprise that some outputs are showing secondary lows developing rapidly and bringing stormy conditions. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by jordan smith

[weirpig]

Icon = unclement     Lol  very windy and wet   its difficult to see the Uk under that lot. 

[frosty ground]

15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon = unclement     Lol  very windy and wet   its difficult to see the Uk under that lot. 

Might be white for areas with elevation with Blizzards

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Amazing the time wasted on posting these GFS maps that show hurricane force winds at day 8+ with the following apocalyptic warnings - a couple of times this has happened and nearer the time absolutely nothing like what was shown. I suppose it keeps some interest in this bore-fest winter. 

I think you answered your own statement there.

[radiohead]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Might be white for areas with elevation with Blizzards

Absolutely, maybe even to lower levels in places.