Climate: Never mind this weekend what about a forecast for 10 years from now ? Warmer

[Jo Farrow]

A look at the Met Office Hadley Centre's 2020 Decadal Forecast, looking at climate and likely warming over the next ten years.

Read more here

[Don]

Not a nice reading but realistic!

[Roger J Smith]

The surprise factor in this is vanishingly small. 

However, a similar forecast could have been issued in 2006, would have been essentially correct, yet we had both ends of 2010, March 2013, and a few other treats along the way. 

So I wouldn't throw too many toys out of the pram, what would you prefer anyway, ten slightly colder years, or nine warmer ones and another 2010? 

[egret]

Fascinating.

I confess the bit that puzzles me is the apparent mismatch between historic studies ( ice and sediment cores) and current work which seem to give different projections.

Is there close correlation between the two methodologies for the 20th century or are pollen analyses in modern times perhaps overly corrupted by large scale agricultural practice?

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by egret
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